T20 WORLD CUP: England v West Indies v South Africa – NRR Permutations

Any England win, the group is decided on points and NRR becomes irrelevant:

For completeness, if the match is rained off, the group is also decided on points:

If West Indies win, things get more interesting – all 3 teams will be level on 6 points, and NRR comes into play. Let’s assume England bat first and score 130.

West Indies chase 130 in 20 overs:

West Indies chase 130 in 15 overs:

So if England score 130, they are out if they lose, because even a narrow loss means they fall behind South Africa

What if they score 199?

West Indies chase 199 in 20 overs:

West Indies chase 199 in 15 overs:

So England still go out if they lose!

Finally… let’s try 201!

West Indies chase 201 in 20 overs:

West Indies chase 201 in 15 overs:

So… South Africa are through unless England very narrowly lose a very high-scoring game.

(Or am I wrong?!?!)