Any England win, the group is decided on points and NRR becomes irrelevant:
| Team | Points | NRR |
|---|---|---|
| England | 8 | ? |
| South Africa | 6 | ? |
| West Indies | 4 | ? |
For completeness, if the match is rained off, the group is also decided on points:
| Team | Points | NRR |
|---|---|---|
| England | 7 | ? |
| South Africa | 6 | ? |
| West Indies | 5 | ? |
If West Indies win, things get more interesting – all 3 teams will be level on 6 points, and NRR comes into play. Let’s assume England bat first and score 130.
West Indies chase 130 in 20 overs:
| Team | Points | NRR |
|---|---|---|
| South Africa | 6 | 1.382 |
| West Indies | 6 | 1.247 |
| England | 6 | 1.244 |
West Indies chase 130 in 15 overs:
| Team | Points | NRR |
|---|---|---|
| West Indies | 6 | 1.836 |
| South Africa | 6 | 1.382 |
| England | 6 | 0.863 |
So if England score 130, they are out if they lose, because even a narrow loss means they fall behind South Africa
What if they score 199?
West Indies chase 199 in 20 overs:
| Team | Points | NRR |
|---|---|---|
| West Indies | 6 | 1.428 |
| South Africa | 6 | 1.382 |
| England | 6 | 1.380 |
West Indies chase 199 in 15 overs:
| Team | Points | NRR |
|---|---|---|
| West Indies | 6 | 2.109 |
| South Africa | 6 | 1.382 |
| England | 6 | 0.938 |
So England still go out if they lose!
Finally… let’s try 201!
West Indies chase 201 in 20 overs:
| Team | Points | NRR |
|---|---|---|
| West Indies | 6 | 1.433 |
| England | 6 | 1.384 |
| South Africa | 6 | 1.382 |
West Indies chase 201 in 15 overs:
| Team | Points | NRR |
|---|---|---|
| West Indies | 6 | 2.117 |
| South Africa | 6 | 1.382 |
| England | 6 | 0.940 |
So… South Africa are through unless England very narrowly lose a very high-scoring game.
(Or am I wrong?!?!)
