The 2025 college football season went awry for the No. 13 Texas Longhorns (9-3) and their head coach, Steve Sarkisian.
The Longhorns began the season ranked No. 1 for the first time in the history of their program. This achievement came after consecutive appearances in the College Football Playoff semifinals, making them the only program in college football to accomplish this feat. However, following losses to the top-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes, the Florida Gators and the No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs, Texas is unlikely to make the College Football Playoff this season.
While that hasn’t been great news, Texas also received an unfortunate prediction on Saturday. According to Kalshi, Sarkisian is one of the most betted on coaches to not be at their program come September of next season.
Kalshi is an online prediction market, or financial trading platform, on which users profit by trading (similar to the stock market) on the outcome of events with other users. The percentage figure is based on the trading activity of the users betting on that event.
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It’s unclear whether this means he would be fired, which seems unlikely, or if he would simply leave for another job. This comes after speculation earlier this season that Sarkisian might move to the NFL, although he has since dismissed those rumors.
Sarkisian’s contract totals $75.8 million through the 2031 season. As part of his deal, he not only received a pay increase but also saw his buyout increase from 70% to 85% of the remaining amount owed to him, which is a significant change. That means his buyout increased this season to $64.4 million.
If Texas decides to dismiss him after this season but before 2026, he would be entitled to $55.25 million. If Sarkisian were to leave for another team or the NFL, his original contract stipulates that he would owe Texas $4 million if he leaves before the end of the 2025 season. This amount would decrease to $3 million if he departs before the end of the 2026 season.
As the offseason approaches, the Longhorns may soon face pivotal decisions about their direction and leadership. Whether Sarkisian remains in Austin, tests NFL interest, or becomes part of the broader coaching movement sweeping college football, Texas now enters a stretch where clarity will be crucial and where every development will shape the program’s next chapter.
Related: Why Texas Deserves a Spot in the College Football Playoff