You didn’t think we’d leave you hanging, did you? As promised, we’re following up our quick-and-dirty list of the 10 likeliest upsets with deeper analysis of every first-round game with Bracket Breaker implications (i.e a difference of at least five seeds). For the uninitiated, we look for clear statistical markers between underdogs and favorites that have historically helped predict potential upsets before they happen. As always, it pays to read about how our projection model, Slingshot, works before diving into the analysis.
First up …
East Region
No. 6 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 11 South Florida Bulls
Upset chance: 28 percent
The Bulls are a great team to watch if you like to see strategy in action. They’ve got fast big men who crash the boards, led by forward Izaiyah Nelson (15.7 points and 9.6 rebounds per game). Their offensive rebounding (38.2 percent of missed shots, ranking seventh in the nation, up from 242nd last year!) leads to point-blank shots (average distance of just 4.0 feet on 2-point shots, third-closest in D1). During their current 11-game winning streak, USF has taken nearly seven more attempts from the field per game than their opponents, including bunches of putbacks and dunks.
But Louisville hits the glass, too, and can also shoot from anywhere. With an offense scoring 124.1 adjusted points per 100 possessions and a top-25 defense, our model sees the Cardinals as one of the 10 best teams in the country. They’ve lost three games by five or fewer points in the past month — and hadn’t won such a game until a three-point win against Miami in the final contest of the regular season — but that bad luck shouldn’t lead you to underestimate them as severely as the selection committee did in handing Louisville a No. 6 seed. This is particularly true if standout freshman point guard Mikel Brown Jr. can make it back from an injured … back.
Further, in this matchup, the Bulls’ speed may not help them. USF plays at the 15th-quickest pace in the country, which can be dangerous against a high-octane opponent. So there’s upset potential here for sure, but if you’re betting this game, be aware that markets seem to be catching on to South Florida (+185) without fully appreciating the Cardinals.
No. 5 St. John’s Red Storm vs. No. 12 Northern Iowa Panthers
Upset chance: 24.5 percent
We often preach that a top seed needs to build possessions to help ensure that one off-shooting night doesn’t knock it out of the tournament. St. John’s has operated that way as a matter of survival all season, because so many of its nights involve poor shooting. This year, the Red Storm have had games where they shot 28 percent against Providence, 33 percent against Kentucky, and 35 percent against DePaul, not to mention their notorious 11-for-56 performance vs. UConn last month. The Johnnies have compensated by hitting the boards (ranking 28th in offensive rebounding percentage) and protecting the ball. So while they’re making just 51.6 percent of 2s (ranking 190th) and 33.3 percent of 3s (ranking 216th), they are 44th in offensive efficiency, and they have a Safety Rating in our model of 94. But it makes sense that, even though Slingshot loves their peripheral stats, they don’t rate even higher.
Northern Iowa reminds us of the old joke about a team that plays so slow, you could go out and hold up a bank at the beginning of its game, get arrested, convicted and sent to jail, and be out on parole in time to see the finish. The Panthers play at an adjusted pace of just 62.3 possessions per game (ranking 363rd), forcing opponents into a lumbering, slumbering slog. It’s not a style that Slingshot recognized as belonging to a particular underdog cluster, but it’s very effective. Northern Iowa has been forced to play to more than 70 possessions in only four non-overtime games all year. Bottom line: St. John’s is well-equipped to play as a giant, but nobody runs away from UNI.
No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 13 Cal Baptist Lancers
Upset chance: 14.2 percent
Last week, we wrote that Kansas has some key flaws that leaves it with only an 86 percent Safety Rating against a generic underdog. Apparently Cal Baptist is as generic as it gets, because the Jayhawks have that same 86 percent chance of avoiding an upset in this first-round matchup. But let’s focus on the other 14 percent, shall we?
There is a very specific way that favorites built like Kansas can lose – and have lost – tournament games like this one. Anyone can have a bad shooting game. That much is obvious. But the Jayhawks are more prone to that sort of outing than a typical top team, as they rank just 172nd in effective field goal percentage.
Safe giants/favorites tend to have to have two fallback options to protect them in those situations: offensive rebounding and forcing turnovers. That gives them extra possessions to make up for the shots that they miss. But Kansas only forces turnovers on 14 percent of opponents’ possessions (337th in the country), and grabs offensive rebounds at a below-average rate (29.5 percent).
That’s especially troubling, as Cal Baptist’s greatest weapon is its glasswork. The Lancers rank 11th in the country in offensive boards and 45th in defensive rebounding. Their rotation includes three players who are 6-foot-10 or taller, so Kansas won’t be able to bully them inside the way they might against another mid-major. Cal Baptist’s offense is troubling, to say the least: The Lancers rank 302nd in effective field goal percentage, and they don’t embrace the variance game, as they only take 32 percent of their shots from 3-point range. So their best bet is a slow, grind-it-out game, where they get enough second-chance points to compensate for their own poor shooting. In other words, if you pick the Lancers, you might want to invest in the under as well.
No. 3 Michigan St. Spartans vs. No. 14 North Dakota St. Bison
Upset chance: 12.1 percent
Slingshot’s computation includes an examination of similar tournament matchups from the past, based on teams’ statistical profiles. And would you believe that the game most similar to this one occurred 10 years ago and also featured the Spartans? They were seeded second in 2016, but lost 90-81 to Giddy Potts, Reggie Upshaw Jr. and the feisty No. 15 seed Middle Tennessee. Granted, the only common links between that team and this one are Tom Izzo and this angry fellow, but it’s worth noting that three of the 10 most similar games ended in an upset.
This Michigan State team has a better buffer against underdogs because it is an elite rebounding team, leading the country in defensive rebounding rate and ranking fourth on the offensive glass. That will be strength on strength, as the Bison – led by 6-foot-9 Treyson Anderson and 6-foot-10 Noah Feddersen – only allow offensive boards on 25.7 percent of opponents’ shots, while grabbing 33.6 percent of their own misses. They also force turnovers at an above-average rate, and that has been a problem for the Spartans: Despite the superlative play of point guard Jeremy Fears, they turn the ball over on 17.1 percent of possessions.
The Bison have five players who shoot better than 36 percent from 3-point range on significant volume, so if one or two get hot, this could be a ballgame. The Spartans are still a far better team, and the Bison played the country’s 282nd-ranked schedule, which included the likes of Jamestown, Minnesota Crookston and the College of St. Scholastica. But this isn’t a gimme for the Spartans; the Bison have some stampede potential.
No. 2 UConn Huskies vs. No. 15 Furman Paladins
Upset chance: 7 percent
Given that a trio of Furman professors helped build our upset prediction model, this is the underdog of choice for our academic colleagues. Unfortunately for them, the Paladins bring to mind an old Bill James quote about an outfielder named Tony Scott: “He plays hard, but not too well.”
Furman, a longtime sharpshooting squad, is as game as ever to keep firing away from 3-point range. The Paladins launched 80 3s in their exciting three-game run through the SoCon Tournament. But they hit just a third of them and they’re sloppy with the ball, none of which adds much to a below-average power rating that ranks 187th in the country. UConn has a Safety Rating of 94, and the Huskies are not likely to follow up their loss in the Big East final by taking their foot off the gas here.
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 16 Siena Saints
Upset chance: 6 percent
Duke, as strange as it may sound, appears to be somewhat overlooked, despite earning the tournament’s overall No. 1 seed. This is obviously due to the injuries to two starters that left them with a seven-man rotation in the ACC tournament. The Blue Devils hope to get center Patrick Ngongba back this week, but if they hope for Caleb Foster to return this season, they’d likely need to reach the Final Four. And even then it would be a longshot.
That said, they still won the ACC tournament without those two key cogs, and Slingshot doesn’t see much of an issue against Siena. The Blue Devils’ statistical profile looks like Slingshot tried to engineer an upset-proof squad. They dominate the glass at both ends, force an above-average rate of turnovers and absolutely clamp down on defense (while casually sporting a top-four offense, too). Again, those numbers aren’t the same without Ngongba and Foster, but it will take a team better than Gerry McNamara’s crew — which played exactly one team ranked better than 139th on KenPom.com (Indiana), losing by 21 — to test Duke.
South Region
No. 5 Vanderbilt Commodores vs. No. 12 McNeese Cowboys
Upset Chance: 41.2 percent
If Slingshot were capable of recreating movie scenes, it would knock on McNeese’s door and, fighting back tears, tell the Cowboys that “you complete me.” The grand, unifying theory of upsets is that undermanned teams need to play a high-risk, high-reward style. In a one-and-done tournament, coming close means nothing. Teams need to take extra chances to slightly increase their odds of winning outright, even if that simultaneously increases the downside risk of a blowout. McNeese played three NCAA tournament games in the past two years. It got throttled in the 2024 first round by Gonzaga, 86-65, and got pounded by Purdue in last year’s second round. In between, though, they beat Clemson by two points behind 18 offensive rebounds, seven steals and a healthy dose of Aura.
McNeese now heads into March with a familiar feel. Yes, former top assistant Bill Armstrong has replaced Will Wade and sure, only two key players from last season are part of this year’s rotation. But the style remains the same and the reinforcements are impressive. McNeese leads the country in forcing turnovers (24.6 percent of possessions), while it only gives it away 14.3 percent of the time on offense. Think about that: in a 68-possession game (as forecasted by KenPom), that’s almost seven extra possessions. Then add in their 35 percent offensive rebounding rate, and you can see how they can thrive despite shooting just 31.6 percent from 3-point range. And if 6-foot-4 freshman Larry Johnson (17.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg) keeps up his recent pace (21.7 ppg, 8.2 rpg over his past six games), the Cowboys will have a true go-to player to add to the mix.
But Vanderbilt is good. Really good. Slingshot ranks the Commodores 13th in the country by SRS, just a hair behind UConn, who earned a 2-seed. And that’s despite the fact that Duke Miles missed eight games. Now he’s back, and he was fantastic in the SEC Tournament, scoring 64 points and handing out 21 assists in three games against Tennessee, Florida and Arkansas. The Commodores are also steady with the ball, turning it over on just 13.3 percent of possessions, which sets up a great contrast with McNeese’s pressure defense. They’re only a middling rebounding team, though, which could be problematic against the crash-happy Cowboys.
Also frightening for Vandy: Three of the seven most similar games in Slingshot’s database ended in upsets, including McNeese’s win over Clemson last year. Of course, the most similar game was the Cowboys’ subsequent loss to Purdue. If the Commodores survive against McNeese, they are good enough to make a deep run. But that’s a big if.
No. 6 North Carolina Tar Heels vs. No. 11 VCU Rams
Upset Chance: 40.9 percent
As we posited yesterday, the actual upset odds in this matchup are probably even higher than this, because UNC no longer has the services of Caleb Wilson. There is simply no way to replace the 6-foot-10, do-it-all forward, and his absence isn’t fully baked into Carolina’s statistical profile.
And even with Wilson, the Heels would be in trouble against VCU. The Rams have authored more than their fair share of upsets over the years, but they did so with extreme styles of play, routinely ranking among the nation’s leaders in forcing turnovers, while shooting plenty of 3s and crashing the offensive boards. This new version, under first-year coach Phil Martelli Jr., doesn’t stand out in any particular area, but it is above average almost across the board.
The Rams win the turnover battle. They beat their opponents on the boards. They shoot a high volume of 3s and knock them down at a 36.7 percent clip. And their extreme difference in possession length – 16.5 seconds per possession on offense; 18 seconds on defense – suggest that they are more efficient in hunting good looks than their opponents are.
UNC can take some solace in the similar games component of our model. Only two of the most similar matchups ended in an upset, and none of the top six did. Still, UNC’s lack of possession-building tactics are troublesome (only 21 of the nation’s 365 teams forced fewer turnovers per possession), and its defense is more geared toward protecting the rim than cutting off VCU’s bevy of shooters. In short, the Tar Heels are in a sticky situation.
No. 4 Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. No. 13 Troy Trojans
Upset Chance: 20.9 percent
Troy ranks just 152nd in our basic power rating, but the Trojans have the qualities our model looks for in successful underdogs. They keep games very slow, ranking 304th in adjusted tempo. They pile up offensive boards, grabbing 34.8 percent of their own missed shots. They take a lot of 3s (45.8 percent of field-goal attempts). They also have some decent results, including a double-overtime win at San Diego State, a triple-OT loss at USC, and a 10-point win over Akron. They’re not Wright State.
The key question is whether Troy will prove strong enough to challenge a giant’s vulnerabilities, because the Cornhuskers have a gaping hole in their statistical resume: They rank 314th in offensive rebounding percentage, nabbing just 26.3 percent of their own missed shots. That’s 314th … as in three spots behind Mercyhurst.
We can hear you objecting to the significance of this fact. So let’s stipulate: Yes, Nebraska avoids the offensive boards as a matter of style. They pace and space, and don’t race to the … glace … err … glass. They want to get back in transition and prevent fast breaks. And they succeed! The Cornhuskers both force and stymie perimeter shots, and have the eighth-best defense in the country.
But Slingshot’s math is rooted in history, and not the kind that says Nebraska should win because it’s due. Coaches and players have followed all kinds of different philosophies since we’ve been studying the tournament, and it’s just a fact that high seeds who put up low offensive rebounding numbers have a tendency to fall in shocking early defeats. Colorado State in 2022 and Virginia in 2021 are recent examples, which should concern Nebraska fans at least a little. In the old days of our model, we used to have a category of upset predictions called “Not Completely Crazy.” This matchup fits that description.
No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 14 Penn Quakers
Upset Chance: 10.8 percent
Illinois has had some of the worst luck in the country this season, going 0-4 in overtime and posting a three-point loss (to Nebraska) while earning zero close wins. But don’t be fooled by a handful of bad bounces. The Illini are a highly-successful example of what we call a “gambling giant,” taking more than 50 percent of their shots from behind the arc and scoring 131.2 adjusted points per possession, second in the nation behind Purdue. Slingshot says they are the No. 6 team in the NCAA. And amped by the country’s third-best offensive rebounding percentage (38.7 percent), Illinois has a Safety Rating of 96.
The Quakers, on the other hand, may never have another weekend like they just enjoyed, when they clipped both Harvard and Yale in OT to clinch the Ivy League title. Sad but key stats: Penn shoots just 46.9 percent on 2-point attempts (ranking: 346th) while allowing opponents to shoot 54.9 percent on 2s (ranking: 292nd), and they must now face the biggest team in the nation (Illinois is the only squad with an average height of 80 or more inches).
Our model does offer two glimmers of hope here for the underdog. First, there’s always risk when an overdog/favorite combines a high volume of 3-point attempts with a slow pace, and Illinois did lose its way amid poor shooting in low-possession losses to UConn and Michigan during the regular season. On a related note, Slingshot also recognizes that although Penn’s overall tempo looks quick, the Quakers really slow down their opponents (average possession length on defense of 18.2 seconds, ranking 310th). Historically, that kind of split has helped a series of longshots pull off big upsets. But Penn, No. 164 in our power ratings, probably just isn’t strong enough, either overall or at forcing turnovers, to make disruption matter.
Second, the Quakers don’t shoot a lot of 3s, but are great at making them (39.7 percent, ranking 11th). If they’re smart enough — and this is probably a team we can count on to be intelligent – there’s a chance they could switch styles and risk more long-range shooting for greater rewards. We call this type of team, epitomized by fellow Ivy Leaguers Harvard in the early 2010s, a “chameleon.” So maybe TJ Power, who just went 10-22 from downtown in the Ivy tournament, can redouble his efforts.
But toppling Illinois? That’s a tall order — literally.
No. 1 Florida Gators vs. No. 16 Lehigh Mountain Hawks or Prairie View A&M Panthers
Upset Chance: 5.1 percent vs. Lehigh; 3.5 percent vs. Prairie View
The national champions are a fast-paced machine that dominates the boards at both ends, worthy of their Safety Rating of 98 despite losing to Vanderbilt last weekend. Now, in previous years, some commenters have asked questions like, “Do the Gators really have a 5 percent chance of losing to Prairie View A&M?” Probably not. But recent unbelievable tournament results, particularly by Fairleigh Dickinson in 2023, have forced our model to curve its extreme boundaries a bit. It’s really an acknowledgement that anything can happen.
The 16-seed play-in game here could be ferocious. Deep in the nether regions of our power ratings, these two underdogs are separated by fewer than 2 points per 100 possessions in basic strength. And while neither team does many things well, the Panthers’ high-pressure defense does rank sixth in the country at forcing non-steal turnovers — which the Mountain Hawks happen to be fifth-best in the nation at avoiding. If you ever wanted to see an all-or-nothing game decided by battles over offensive fouls, out-of-bounds calls and traveling, here’s your chance!
No. 2 Houston Cougars vs. No. 15 Idaho Vandals
Upset Chance: 4.2 percent
Idaho hasn’t reached the NCAA Tournament in 36 years. Its stay will be a heck of a lot shorter. The Vandals have the nation’s 176nd-ranked offense, post below average rates of forcing turnovers and grabbing offensive rebounds, and allow teams to make nearly 35 percent of their 3s. On the other hand, they did beat Whitman, Eastern Oregon and Evergreen State.
But, yeah, none of that is going to be much of a match for an elite Houston squad that is built to smack away underdogs like gnats: 13th in forcing turnovers; 30th in offensive rebounding; fifth in defensive efficiency.
West Region
No. 6 BYU Cougars vs. No. 11 NC State Wolfpack or Texas Longhorns
Upset Chance: 35.2 percent vs. NC State; 34 percent vs. Texas
It’s hard to complain about BYU’s offense when they are scoring 125.5 adjusted points per 100 possessions — 10th-most in the nation — and freshman AJ Dybantsa is leading D1 with 25.3 points per game. But conference play revealed that when an opponent can hamper the Cougars’ 3-point shooting — as Texas Tech, West Virginia and Cincinnati all were able to do — it can plunge BYU into deep trouble. The Cougars are good-not-great at offensive and defensive rebounding and forcing and avoiding turnovers. They rely — at a very high level, to be sure — on hitting field goals when they need to. And that cracks open the door of vulnerability for any giant in a tournament setting.
The play-in game to face the Cougars features a couple of “Wounded Assassins” — scarred but nevertheless dangerous power conference teams who land in the lower half of brackets — and both of them know how to build the volume and value of possessions. North Carolina State is the 10th-best 3-point shooting team in the country, and Slingshot’s cluster analysis has found that killers similar to the Wolfpack had historically caused all kinds of problems for favorites resembling BYU. Texas barely made the tournament but is a classic “Slow Killer.” The Longhorns play at a pace that ranks 204th in the country, hit the offensive glass (ranking 35th with a 35.7 offensive rebounding percentage), and shoot few 3s but hit them at an above-average rate. It’s a disciplined approach, and members of that clan, too, have been historically effective as longshots. Six of the Longhorns’ 14 losses have also been by five or fewer points, indicating Texas is stronger than its record appears.
Bottom line: Whoever emerges from the First Four, the power-ratings gap between BYU and its opponent will be the smallest of any 6-11 matchup. And the difference will further narrow because an ACC- or SEC-level killer will come armed with historically important weapons.
No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 12 High Point Panthers
Upset Chance: 35 percent
Deciding whether to pick this upset in your bracket depends, as we always say, on the structure of your pool. Do you get extra points for correctly nailing an upset? Conversely, could you gain leverage by picking Wisconsin to reach the Sweet 16? That’s up to you and your strategic thinking.
What’s clear, though, is that there’s an edge in betting on High Point. The moneyline currently sits at +370 at DraftKings (we hope you got it at +405 on Sunday), which implies a 21.3 percent chance of a High Point victory. Slingshot says the Panthers have a 35 percent chance to win, so you can see the value.
Wisconsin is a good team, but its style isn’t in line with how a safe giant operates. The Badgers take 52.6 percent of their shots from 3-point range, which is a great strategy when battling the likes of Michigan, Illinois, Purdue and Michigan State (all of whom Bucky knocked off), but less so against an inferior foe, because it introduces more variance. Sure, if they’re on, they might win by 30. But if they are off, it could spell doom, like their 9-for-37 performance in a home loss to USC. This would be less problematic if the Badgers offset that risk by generating extra possessions, but they neither grab offensive rebounds (29.4 percent) nor force turnovers (14.5 percent). So High Point has a route to a victory.
And it’s not all about Wisconsin’s weaknesses. The Panthers generate 8.9 extra chances per 100 possessions because of their insanely good turnover rates at both ends: 13 percent on offense; 21.9 percent on defense. They’re an above-average offensive rebounding team and shoot plenty of 3s. Slingshot loves the risks they take.
The model also loves the history of games like this one. Four of the 10 most similar games in our database ended in an upset, including Wisconsin’s 2024 loss to James Madison. When things go wrong for underdogs in these types of contests, things can go really wrong: James Madison followed that win by losing by 38 points against Duke. Still, any No. 12 seed would take a four-in-10 chance of beating a No. 5 seed, and that’s what we find when we look to the past.
No. 4 Arkansas Razorbacks vs. No. 13 Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors
Upset Chance: 11.1 percent
By now, you surely realize that our model can get us excited over just about any scrap of statistical detail. But this matchup leaves our team shrugging, “Meh.” Arkansas (Safety Rating: 91) has the traits of a smoothly efficient though not dominant giant, and though they had to overcome Mississippi in overtime, they played like one in the SEC tournament: uptempo, securing the ball, shooting 3s judiciously but accurately. Hawai’i is No. 104 in our power ratings, and it takes none of the sort of risks that could help it overperform in a tournament setting. There’s a gap between these teams of about 22 points per 100 possessions, and that pretty much sums up what you need to know.
No. 3 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 14 Kennesaw State Owls
Upset Chance: 6.3 percent
Quietly, Gonzaga once again has an elite squad, sporting a 30-3 record with non-conference wins over Alabama, Kentucky, UCLA and Oklahoma. If not for a 40-point loss to Michigan the day before Thanksgiving, we might be looking at the Zags quite differently.
By the numbers, Gonzaga does everything you’d want from a safe giant. They rank in the top 20 in the country in forcing turnovers, preventing turnovers and defensive rebounding, and are 53rd in offensive rebounding. Their 3-point shooting is a weakness, but that’s more relevant against a high-quality opponent than Kennesaw State.
The Owls play fast and crash the offensive glass, but they struggle with efficiency at both ends. They foul way too often – almost half of their opponents’ points come from the free-throw line. Graham Ike should feast inside: The Owls don’t have anyone who (hoo) can stop him.
No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 15 Queens Royals
Upset Chance: 7 percent
After years of making fun of Purdue for its mind-bending string of first-round tourney losses, it’s time to give this team props, and we are going to play it straight. These Boilermakers, who lead the NCAA with 131.6 adjusted points per 100 possessions, have the best offense Matt Painter has ever coached. They can shoot from anywhere, dominate the boards and protect the ball, and they are a pleasure to watch on the pick and roll. Are there questions about whether their slow pace could cause them problems, or a sharpshooting opponent could lethally wound them from long range? Sure. But not in the first round.
Queens, which is based in Charlotte, not in Queens, is not the worst team in this year’s tournament. But they do have the worst defense of anyone in the field of 68, allowing 117.2 adjusted points per 100 possessions (ranking 322nd). They are hapless inside and outside, on the glass and handling the ball. It looks like they are actually trying but failing to run an old scheme based on horse jumping. Everyone knows when an equestrian leaps over defense, defeat goes before detail.
No. 1 Arizona Wildcats vs. No. 16 Long Island Sharks
Upset Chance: 4.1 percent
Back in 2005, CBS spent copious amounts of March Madness commercial inventory advertising a truly revolutionary made-for-TV movie: Spring Break Shark Attack. Before that, we didn’t even know sharks got a spring break. Anyway, LIU turns the ball over 19 percent of the time, allows teams to grab 33 percent of their missed shots, and has the nation’s 239th-ranked offense.
This, friends, will not be a spring break Shark attack.
Now we’re three-quarters through the bracket, and we’re cranking through the Midwest region as you read this — be sure to check back soon for the final first-round matchups.
West Region
No. 6 BYU Cougars vs. No. 11 N.C. State Wolfpack or Texas Longhorns
Upset Chance: 35.2 percent vs. N.C. State; 34 percent vs. Texas
It’s hard to complain about BYU’s offense when they are scoring 125.5 adjusted points per 100 possessions, 10th-most in the nation, and freshman AJ Dybantsa is leading D1 with 25.3 points per game. But conference play revealed that when an opponent can hamper the Cougars’ 3-point shooting — as Texas Tech, West Virginia and Cincinnati all were able to do — it can plunge BYU into deep trouble. The Cougars are good-not-great at offensive and defensive rebounding and forcing and avoiding turnovers. They rely — at a very high level, to be sure — on hitting field goals when they need to. And that cracks open the door of vulnerability for any giant in a tournament setting.
The play-in to face the Cougars features a couple of “Wounded Assassins” — scarred but nevertheless dangerous power conference teams who land in the lower half of brackets — and both of them know how to build the volume and value of possessions. North Carolina State is the 10th-best 3-point shooting team in the country, and Slingshot’s cluster analysis has found that killers similar to the Wolfpack had historically caused all kinds of problems for favorites resembling BYU. Texas barely made the tournament but is a classic “Slow Killer.” The Longhorns play at a pace that ranks 204th in the country, hit the offensive glass (ranking 35th with a 35.7 percent offensive rebounding percentage), and shoot few 3s but hit them at an above-average rate. It’s a disciplined approach, and members of that clan, too, have been historically effective as longshots. Six of the Longhorns’ 14 losses have also been by 5 or fewer points, indicating Texas is stronger than its record appears.
Bottom line: Whoever emerges from the First Four, the power-ratings gap between BYU and its opponent will be the smallest of any 6-11 matchup. And the difference will further narrow because an ACC- or SEC-level killer will come armed with historically important weapons.
No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 12 High Point Panthers
Upset Chance: 35 percent
Deciding whether to pick this upset in your bracket depends, as we always say, on the structure of your pool. Do you get extra points for correctly nailing an upset? Conversely, could you gain leverage by picking Wisconsin to reach the Sweet 16? That’s up to you and your strategic thinking.
What’s clear, though, is that there’s an edge in betting on High Point. The moneyline currently sits at +370 at DraftKings (we hope you got it at +405 yesterday), which implies a 21.3 chance of a High Point victory. Slingshot says the Panthers have a 35 percent chance to win, so you can see the value.
Wisconsin is a good team, but its style isn’t in line with how a safe giant operates. The Badgers take 52.6 percent of their shots from 3-point range, which is a great strategy when battling the likes of Michigan, Illinois, Purdue and Michigan State (all of whom Bucky knocked off), but less so against an inferior foe, because it introduces more variance. Sure, if they’re on, they might win by 30. But if they are off, it could spell doom, like their 9-for-37 performance in a home loss to USC. This would be less problematic if the Badgers offset that risk by generating extra possessions, but they neither grab offensive rebounds (29.4 percent) nor force turnovers 14.5 percent). So High Point has a route to a victory.
And it’s not all about Wisconsin’s weaknesses. The Panthers generate 8.9 extra chances per 100 possessions because of their insanely good turnover rates at both ends: 13 percent on offense; 21.9 percent on defense. They’re an above-average offensive rebounding team and shoot plenty of 3s. Slingshot loves the risks they take.
The model also loves the history of games like this one. Four of the 10 most similar games in our database ended in upsets, including Wisconsin’s 2024 loss to James Madison. When things go wrong for underdogs in these types of contests, things can go really wrong: James Madison followed that win by losing by 38 points against Duke. Still, any 12-seed would take a four-in-10 chance of beating a 5-seed, and that’s what we find when we look to the past.
No. 4 Arkansas Razorbacks vs. No. 13 Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors
Upset Chance: 11.1 percent
By now, you surely realize that our model can get us excited over just about any scrap of statistical detail. But this matchup leaves our team shrugging, “Meh.” Arkansas (Safety Rating: 91) has the traits of a smoothly efficient though not dominant giant, and though they had to overcome Mississippi in overtime, played like one in the SEC Tournament: up-tempo, securing the ball, shooting 3s judiciously but accurately. Hawai’i is No. 104 in our power ratings, and takes none of the risks that could help it overperform in a tournament setting. There’s a gap between these teams of about 22 points per 100 possessions, and that pretty much sums up what you need to know.
No. 3 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 14 Kennesaw State Owls
Upset Chance: 6.3 percent
Quietly, once again Gonzaga has an elite squad, sporting a 30-3 record with non-conference wins over Alabama, Kentucky, UCLA and Oklahoma. If not for a 40-point loss to Michigan the day before Thanksgiving, we might be looking at the Zags quite differently.
Metrically, Gonzaga does everything you’d want from a safe giant. They rank in the top 20 in the country in forcing turnovers, preventing turnovers and defensive rebounding, and are 53 in offensive rebounding. Though 3-point shooting is a weakness, that’s more relevant against a high-quality opponent than Kennesaw State.
The Owls play fast and crash the offensive glass, but struggle with efficiency at both ends. They foul way too often – almost half of their opponents’ points come from the free-throw line. Graham Ike should feast inside: The Owls don’t have anyone who (hoo?) can stop him.
No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 15 Queens Royals
Upset Chance: 7 percent
After years of making fun of Purdue for its mindbending string of first-round NCAA Tournament losses, it’s time to give this team props, and we are going to play it straight. These Boilermakers, who lead the NCAA with 131.6 adjusted points per 100 possessions, have the best offense Matt Painter has ever coached. They can shoot from anywhere, dominate the boards and protect the ball, and they are a pleasure to watch on the pick-and-roll. Are there questions about whether their slow pace could cause them problems, or a sharpshooting opponent could hurt them from long range? Sure. But not in the first round.
Queens, which is based in Charlotte, not Queens, N.Y., is not the worst team in this year’s tournament. But they do have the worst defense of anyone in the field of 68, allowing 117.2 adjusted points per 100 possessions (ranking: 322nd). They are hapless inside and outside, on the glass and handling the ball. It looks like they are actually trying but failing to run an old scheme based on horse-jumping. Everyone knows when an equestrian leaps over defense, defeat goes before detail.
No. 1 Arizona Wildcats vs. No. 16 Long Island Sharks
Upset Chance: 4.1 percent
Back in 2005, CBS spent copious amounts of March Madness commercial inventory advertising a truly revolutionary made-for-TV movie: Spring Break Shark Attack. Before that, we didn’t even know that sharks got a spring break. Anyway, LIU turns the ball over 19 percent of the time, allows teams to grab 33 percent of their missed shots, and has the nation’s 239th-ranked offense.
This, friends, will not be a spring break Shark attack.
Midwest Region
No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 11 Miami (Ohio) RedHawks or SMU Mustangs
Upset Chance: 24.3 percent vs. SMU; 15.9 percent vs. Miami (Ohio)
Tennessee’s metrics are much better than its reputation or seeding this season, which is why these upset odds are so low for a 6-11 game. Slingshot says the Vols are the 14th-best team in the country, not somewhere between 21 and 24, as a 6-seed would imply. They build on that basic power ranking with a heaping portion of our model’s special sauce — the statistical boost it assigns teams that embody the traits of historically upset-proof favorites.
The Vols are the kings of second chances, leading the nation with a 45.1 percent offensive rebound rate. So they are built to withstand a rough shooting game, and with a 51.6 effective field goal percentage, they’ve had a few this season. They’re also quite adept at preventing their opponents from getting on the offensive glass, limiting them to a 27.9 percent of their own misses. To top it off, the Vols have been unlucky, going 4-7 in games decided by five points or fewer.
Some say Miami (Ohio) is lucky – to be in the field. Here at Bracket Breakers Central, we have trouble knocking anyone that loses one game all season, but that doesn’t mean we think the RedHawks’ 31-1 record offers much predictive value. Fact is, they beat up on an embarrassingly soft schedule with tactics reminiscent of “Schoolyard Bullies.” That’s our model’s name for the past teams that eschew high-risk/high-reward styles to dominate weak conferences, but who don’t stand a chance when they step up in class. If the RedHawks get by SMU, they will have to increase their variance to topple Tennessee. And the best way to do that is by increasing their 3-point rate: They already take 44.6 percent of their shots from deep, but they’ll probably need to cross the 50 percent mark against Tennessee.
Slingshot gives SMU a better chance against Tennessee if they win their First Four game, mainly because it simply views the Mustangs as a much better team than the RedHawks – 65 spots ahead in SRS, to be exact. The Mustangs would also need to up their 3-point frequency: They hit 37.4 percent of their 3s, but only take 36 percent of their shots from deep. Even if Boopie Miller goes off, though, beating Tennessee would be a tall task – especially on the boards.
No. 5 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 12 Akron Zips
Upset Chance: 18.9 percent
With all due respect to Miami (Ohio), Akron had been the best team in the MAC for months before the RedHawks lost in the conference tournament and the Zips became the Mid-American champs. Akron is now No. 78 in our basic power ratings, more than 20 slots ahead of Miami (Ohio), and has built a 10-game winning streak of its own. And they are hugely fun to watch: They pass and pass, shoot 3s, then more 3s (45.1 percent of field goal attempts), and when opponents try to adjust, the Zips start cutting to the basket for looks that are even more open. They’re shooting 59.1 percent on 2s (ranking 12th) and 38.1 percent from behind the arc (ranking 14th).
As we pointed out Sunday night, however, none of that has added up to actually beating a good team. Not that the Zips have played many; they have faced just three top-100 opponents this season and gone 0-3. Even with a strength of schedule ranking 235th according to our model, Akron’s style has allowed opponents to also take and make lots of 3s. And they are one of the smallest teams in the country. These realities don’t bode well for stepping up in weight class at the Main Event.
Meanwhile, Grant McCasland, a Friend of the Model who previously brought a Cinderella to life at North Texas, now has the Red Raiders running at high efficiency for the third straight season, though their offensive prowess is often marked by their slo-mo pace. Fun fact: On a per-possession basis, Texas Tech shoots and makes even more 3s than Akron — how many pundits do you think realize that? And the Red Raiders are strong on the offensive glass, too. Iowa State did dismantle them in the Big 12 Tournament, but Texas Tech’s safety factors mean they’re hardly even an easy out. All told, this game has about half the upset potential of a typical 5-12 matchup.
No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 13 Hofstra Pride
Upset Chance: 15.1 percent
Both of these teams are just intriguing enough to warrant a long look at this matchup. Start with the contrast in pace. Alabama flies up and down the court, registering an average possession length on offense of just 15.3 seconds, eighth in the country. Hofstra uses nearly four more seconds each time it has the ball, ranking 334th at 19.1 seconds.
Slingshot tips its cap to both teams for understanding the assignment. Underdogs should try to limit possessions: As we always say, if you were to face LeBron James in a game of one-on-one, you’d rather play to one than 11. Favorites, on the other hand, want as many individual battles as possible, since that increases the opportunities for them to assert their dominance.
But how dominant will Alabama be without Aden Holloway? The star guard is no longer with the team after being arrested on a felony drug charge this week. So, let’s talk about Hofstra’s path to a win. First, Alabama has to go cold from the perimeter. When you lead the country by taking 53.7 percent of your shots from deep, that’s always a possibility. Safe favorites chase down a high percentage of those misses, but Alabama only grabs 31.8 percent of its available offensive rebounds. Nor does Bama get the ball back on defense: The Crimson Tide are fourth-worst in the country at forcing turnovers (12.6 percent of possessions).
So in this scenario, the Tide suddenly find themselves grinding it out in a possession-by-possession game against a Hofstra defense that ranks 10th in efficiency. Then add in this adjustment: Hofstra hits 36.8 percent of its 3s, and launches them on 43 percent of its shots. What if they dial that up to an Alabama-esque 50 percent, and support that with their 34.9 percent offensive rebounding rate? Does that start to sound like a recipe for an upset?
Look, the path to an upset is narrow. Of the 10 most similar games in our model’s history, only one ended in an upset: Princeton over Arizona in 2023. But the path does exist. And it’s one worth watching.
No. 3 Virginia Cavaliers vs. No. 14 Wright State Raiders
Upset Chance: 7.6 percent
Combining basic strength and the factors that make for successful underdogs, Wright State is weak even for a 14-seed. Our model pegs the Raiders as the No. 144 team in the country, and there’s very little longshot action at their table. They’re in the middle of the D1 pack in tempo and forcing turnovers. They rank 81st in how often they collect offensive rebounds and 301st in how often they shoot 3s. If loving Cinderella means taking risks even if they can turn out wrong, you don’t want to be, ahem, Wright. And the Hoos are about 34 points per 100 possessions stronger than the average Horizon League team. They’re also a long way from the days when Tony Bennett had Virginia packing the line. Virginia’s almost comical abandonment of the offensive boards left them vulnerable to huge upsets in 2018, 2021 and 2023. But under Ryan Odom (who coached UMBC to their 16-1 knockout of the Cavaliers eight years ago), Virginia has improved from 350th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage last year all the way up to 10th in 2026. Slingshot sees them as the 13th-best team in the NCAA, with a Safety Rating of 94.
No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 15 Tennessee State Tigers
Upset Chance: 3.6 percent
Nolan Smith has done a phenomenal job in his first season as a head coach, leading the Tigers to the NCAA Tournament for the third time in school history and the first time since 1992. But Iowa State presents a whole different challenge. The Cyclones are not only the fifth-best team in the country, according to Slingshot’s rankings, they also generate bundles of extra possessions by forcing turnovers at a 22.4 percent rate and grabbing 35.3 percent of available offensive rebounds. It’s been a nice ride for the Tigers. It will end on Friday.
No. 1 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 16 Howard Bison or UMBC Retrievers
Upset Chance: 4 percent vs. UMBC; 2.9 percent vs. Howard
As you almost certainly know, Michigan has been awesome all season long. Fun fact: There is a staggering 13.4-point difference between the Wolverines’ effective field-goal percentage and effective field-goal percentage allowed. (That’s actually only the second-biggest gap in the country. Can you guess who’s No. 1?)
UMBC is also another example of the “Schoolyard Bully” we used to describe Miami (Ohio) above. These are teams that play risk-averse styles and try to beat up on inferior opponents, usually in small conferences, to secure themselves autobids. Other classic examples include Bucknell in the early 2010s and Colgate and Vermont in the early 2020s. They often amass gaudy records and sometimes become pundit favorites, but usually lose quickly in the NCAA Tournament because they’re not built to take the kinds of risks that gain longshots glass slippers.
UMBC is a below-average team, but the strongest in the very weak America East. They rank 340th in offensive rebounding percentage and 272nd in grabbing turnovers — really, how can they call themselves Retrievers? — but 27th at avoiding turnovers and 15th on the defensive boards. They play slow, too, and shoot few 3s. These are all the hallmarks of a bully who’s taking no chances and just aiming to keep the ball away from other kids. And it worked! UMBC went 14-2 in their conference and won an NCAA bid, or at least half a bid. Realistically, what more could you want out of their season?
The Bison are opposite in almost every way. Howard plays up-tempo, deploys full-court pressure and crashes the boards. Forcing turnovers and seizing their own missed shots are what they’re best at. It’s worth rooting for them in the play-in game on underdog principles alone.
Kevin Hutson, Liz Bouzarth and John Harris of Furman University provided research assistance for this article.