All the spring classics have their charms and Sunday’s Ronde van Vlaanderen is notable as a national event. No other country cherishes road racing like Belgium and huge numbers will be out along the route.
Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogačar meet again, this time with Wout van Aert and Remco Evenepoel as contenders and also home hopes for the crowds as no Belgian has been on the podium since 2021 and the last home winner was Gilbert in 2017.
The Course: 279km. The start is moved from Brugge to Antwerp, swapping one swank Hanseatic market square for another, with 125km of largely tarmac roads to get to Oudenaarde where the race will finish later on.
From there the race loops around like a bowl of spaghetti as the cobbles and climb come fast. After 150km it’s the Eikenberg chased by the Holleweg cobbled sector and then the Wolvenberg, this triple should mark the “opening” of the race.
The Oude Kwaremont is climbed three times. A 2.2km climb which makes it so different to all the other short ramps, it’s steep at the start before dragging up past the tented hospitality zone. It’s chased by the Paterberg which is short but overcompensates with a 20% slope and brutal stones.
The Koppenberg is the infamous climb that is now reserved only for the Ronde, no other spring classic uses it. All these mark the highlights of the course but there are small small roads, tight junctions and other points. Watch out for the Hotond-Kruisberg as it’s the literal highpoint of the race at 158m and often causes damage with just over 20km to go, it may not see the winning move but look for signs of fatigue.
The Finish: a final time up Oude Kwaremont and Paterberg combo and the gradual descent and then that long road into the outskirts of Oudenaarde for a flat finish. A determined chase behind can bring back any escapees but it relies on riders with energy left and the willingness to collaborate.
The Contenders
Tadej Pogačar and his UAE team know how to win this. He’s won the last two editions he’s started in the same manner. His team mates toil like commis with meat tenderisers, hammering the peloton with a pace that saps everyone for hours until Pogačar uses his comparative advantage on the Oude Kwaremont, the longest climb, to ride away. Easier said than done, especially as everyone is expecting the move. But this obliges others to make their moves before he does and expose themselves, notable in a spring when the likes of Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert have gone solo only to be recaptured by the peloton. Florian Vermeersch has been very strong this season but likely to deliver the final blow to the peloton like Tim Wellens did for the team in the past but overall the team have a very strong squad that will try to control everything.
Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) had been on the podium of every spring classic in Belgium he’d started since 2021 until last Sunday’s Wevelgem where he and Wout van Aert were up the road and looked likely to duel for the win… only to get caught. The anecdote could be telling as he was almost caught in last Sunday’s E3 race too, if only to suggest he’s not monopolising races right now, is his form dipping? If you like other stats then he’s on the eve of a fourth win in the Ronde, a feat unachieved so far and if he does it on Sunday, he’ll be the first to do the Omloop-Ronde double. Can get he ahead of Pogačar, or match him in the finale? He can master the course and his sprint and clarity of mind in the finish of a race are excellent.
A surprise starter, the reverse April Fool’s by Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull) raises expectations. The co-ordinated media release earlier this week announcing his participation showed it’s all part of a plan, rather than being a late starter for the fun of it. His campaign even asked “Flanders are you ready?”, as opposed to him being ready. The form hasn’t looked scintillating, recently conceding two minutes to Jonas Vingegaard on his way to 6th overall in Catalunya. But what if this was the plan and he’s sacrificed climbing to be beefier for Sunday and his close sprint with Dorian Godon and the crosswind move with Vingegaard were the signals and not noise? His weakness is positioning in the hectic moments going into key points but has a team that’s been searching for a leader. His best point is he can win from anywhere, give him ten metres and he could be away for the day and his sprinting is now very strong.
Wout van Aert (Visma-LAB) is back to being a contender but how to win? He seems able to buy an option on the finish, and were he to arrive in the final kilometre with the names cited above already he may not be the first pick but he’d have a chance; similarly across a range of other scenarios especially as some day luck has to go his way, maybe it’ll be rivals who touch wheels on the Koppenberg and stall leaving him space? The dry conditions won’t help as they remove some randomness. The team are strong and have options with Christophe Laporte and Per Strand Hagenes but they’re difficult cards to play, their central case rests on getting Van Aert into a podium position.
Are there other contenders? It does feel like one of the four cited above is going to be on the top step of the podium. Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) ought to be named among the best but his injury comeback has left him visibly short of form and the sense that he might need more time, that Roubaix suits more but he’s got nothing to lose.
By now we’re into riders and indeed whole teams hoping to anticipate events and even then how to get, say, fifth place? Bahrain’s best rider in the classics has been Alec Segaert but this is a much hillier course than he’d like. By contrast Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ) will prefer this but he’s making his cobbled classics debut and a top-10 would be reasonable. Uno-X have been active this spring and Jonas Abrahamsen could try to anticipate events.
Soudal-Quickstep have been more discreet this spring and this is a problem for the reset and refocus on the spring classics as if they haven’t won a semi-classic by now then it’s not going to be easier this weekend or next. Dylan van Baarle and Jasper Stuyven bring experience but these days being wise doesn’t count for what it used to. It still matters, Paul Magnier says he punctured in last Sunday’s Wevelgem because he didn’t pay attention to the course and slammed his wheel into a pothole.
Ineos lack a leader at the top of the team but have options, they’ll want to get ahead of matters and you can probably sort the rest of the teams by how early they’ll try to move right down to Flanders-Baloise and Burgos-Burgpellet-BH who’ll both want to have two riders or more in the morning move.
Weather: cloudy with a strong chance of light rain later on, 11°C. A westerly wind of 25km/h is sufficient to become tactical and even open up the bunch. It means a tailwind to the finish line after the Paterberg.
TV: live from start to finish on Sporza/Een for locals in Flanders, and Eurosport and Flobikes internationally. The start is at 10.00 CEST and the finish is forecast for 4.30pm CEST. Tune in around 3.30pm to get the penultimate Kwaremont-Paterberg combo and the only time up the Koppenberg.
As an aside there’s a new website coursedujour.com which lists or can email you each morning what races are on and where the TV coverage can be found. It looks useful. No affiliation but the creator David has helped check the software that runs this site.
Women’s Ronde
ProcyclingUK has a recommended preview with almost everything except the timings… the finish is due around 5.30pm CEST. Lotte Kopecky is the obvious pick with several contenders.