Is Paul Seixas going to overhaul Tadej Pogačar? He came closer than most yesterday. It would be valuable to know but absent any predictive certainty just asking the question is enough to make Seixas the most valuable rider about to come on the market.
His contract runs to the end of 2027 which means now is the time to discuss 2028 and beyond. Seixas and his agent Joona Lauka can name their price. Of course he’s untested in a grand tour of course but the point to emphasise is not what he’s done or even doing but what he could do. Being the last to fold before Pogačar rode away yesterday was impressive, more so since he was blocked by the UAE team in moments and apparently had stomach cramps. Then he placed several attacks and finally escaped with Isaac Del Toro who he towed to Siena and then rode away from the Mexican despite all this work.
The mere possibility that Seixas could dethrone Pogačar makes him an enticing proposition in the way that Jonas Vingegaard, Remco Evenepoel, Tom Pidcock and Juan Ayuso aren’t quite because they’ve tried and come up short. They’re still among the best of the rest, exciting, marketable and earn millions a year. But come 2028 can they knock Pogačar off his perch?
Signing Seixas offers an option on this, much in the way an AI start-up is worth more than an established software giant. He may never surpass Pogačar but his trajectory suggests it is possible. Again to stress it’s not what he’s done, nor what he will do….but what he could do. If you were picking a fantasy team now for the 2028-2030 Tour de France who would be your first pick? It would take a contrarian streak not to pick Seixas today.
Spring 2026 is the time to plan for 2028 because budgets need to be in place and the bigger the rider the more they’re central to the team and its budget. There are more and more exceptions with riders breaking contracts to move teams which require resources to be rustled up more quickly but generally teams want to lock in their main riders early. Plenty of teams are arranging signings for 2027 now, even if they can’t be official contracts under UCI rules until 1 August. Take Kévin Vauquelin who signed with Ineos last spring as a concrete example. A bigger deal will be done earlier.
UAE are obviously interested but congested. One reason Seixas rode Strade Bianche last weekend was because he wanted to test himself against Pogačar and now he’ll have a taste for trying to topple him. It’s less “if you can’t beat them, join them” and more “if you can beat them, why join them?”. UAE have the money but signing Seixas would create issues for the likes of Del Toro, Almeida, Christen who see their role as anointed successors to Pogačar or Plan B leaders for when the Slovenian isn’t racing but that would be their problem with UAE management paid to deliver wins first and manage moods later.
Other teams will look on but who can get involved in the bidding? Red Bull have spent big on Evenepoel and Lipowitz already; Lidl-Trek paid a fortune to spring Ayuso out of UAE. Ineos could suit, especially if French sponsor Total Energies funds a move. Richard Plugge needs a replacement for Visma but if he lands a giant then that’s a possibility too.
Decathlon-CMA CGM have a good chance to retain him. The project is working well for all sides and French sponsors will pay a premium for a French winner; already the team has added sponsors like recruitment agency Addeco and the buzz could bring in more backing. Decathlon own the team and so have more than a marketing budget; shipping company CMA CGM want good publicity but Rodolphe Saadé takes a personal interest in sports sponsorships and so could see beyond normal marketing metrics. One issue for them is the French payroll taxes where they’ll have to pay millions more than other teams but little stops the team from registering its legal HQ in, say, Switzerland and doing this today would fund the retention of Seixas alone, to borrow Lampedusa it’d be a “if we want things to stay as they are, things will have to change” outcome.
All this may feel very premature. Understandable but there’s a particular combination of circumstances with Seixas looking irresistible right now and his contract being a live issue to resolve. Plus shaking hands with him today doesn’t mean giving him a bigger contract than Pogačar, any deal is likely to feature pay rises linked to performances and longevity.
Another factor in the fear of missing out is who else is hot property? It’s possible that the likes of Lorenzo Finn, Hector Alvarez, Jakob Omrzel or someone not even on our radar blossoms this year and looks as exciting. Or that Seixas continues to grow and bulks up to the point where even ASO runs out of 5-6% climbs. But that’s the future. Today all eyes are on Seixas.
Conclusion
Time well tell what more Seixas can win beyond a stage of the Algarve and the Faun Ardèche Classic. But he’s at the point now where he looks so promising several teams will be racing to lure him because of the fear of missing out. His current team will want to secure his services soon because of this competition too.
The most likely scenario is Seixas renews with his team and as part of this gets to ride the Tour de France this summer but this will require busting open the piggybank. Maybe this is wishful thinking but it might be good if he did renew soon as we could watch him race rather than think about his deal. Challenging UAE’s monopoly on the sport has its appeal too.