Wales take on Ireland in Dublin on Friday night
Changes have been a regular theme under Steve Tandy during his time as Wales coach.
Not ripping up the team week to week exactly, but there has tended to be a handful with every game that has passed by. From the team that played England to the following one against France – four changes to both the starting XV and the bench.
Then, from France to Scotland, four more changes to the run-on side. Three differences in the replacements.
Unfortunately for Tandy, at least two changes from the side that pushed his former team so close are inevitable when he makes his announcement on Wednesday. Ensure our latest sport headlines always appear at the top of your Google Search by making us a Preferred Source. Click here to activate or add us as Preferred Source in your Google search settings
Taine Plumtree has been ruled out of the tournament, replaced by the uncapped Ryan Woodman. Sam Costelow is still with Wales, but he won’t feature in Dublin after limping off nine days ago with an ankle problem.
The question is, after seemingly getting close to the blueprint of the team Tandy wants Wales to be, how many other changes does he make?
Starting with the enforced ones, James Botham reminded everyone against Scotland why he has the nuts and bolts to be a Test player.
The Cardiff flanker’s international career has been stop-start to say the least. Having been a bench player as part of the last Welsh team to win the Six Nations in 2021, he would then fall out of favour for three years.
Having then established himself as a starter in the latter days of Warren Gatland’s second stint, the match against Scotland was his first involvement since the Kiwi left – having missed the previous 11 Tests.
But a bit like Josh Navidi before him, he’s one of those back-rowers who tend to make the whole team look better through things like ruck support. And, perhaps crucially for a side not overly stacked with breakdown threats, he’s capable of a jackal or two.
Botham alongside Alex Mann and Aaron Wainwright looks as balanced a back-row as Wales can name with the options available.
As for fly-half, with Costelow not available for Dublin, you’d expect Dan Edwards to come back into the starting side.
There is an argument for Jarrod Evans – having been on the bench for the last two matches – to start, but it feels like Wales see him as more of an impact player.
The Harlequins playmaker’s last start for Wales was against Argentina in the summer of 2021.
Instead, putting Ospreys fly-half Edwards back into the starting side – having started the previous seven matches for his country – makes sense.
On the one hand, it seems a little cruel on the 22-year-old – having had to largely kick possession away against England and France – to come back in for the daunting trip to Dublin.
But you could flip it on its head, too. Having seen Costelow take the game to Scotland on his 20th cap, Edwards wouldn’t have expected the chance to respond to that performance so soon.
In terms of other changes, they may be few and far between. There’s talk of whether Louis Rees-Zammit is suited at full-back, but a change mid-tournament seems unlikely.
Josh Adams had a strong game against Scotland, while Gabriel Hamer-Webb’s debut was perhaps a little trickier. Do you stick with the Leicester wing or give Ellis Mee another chance?
Let’s not forget Tom Rogers, too. Having scored a hat-trick against the All Blacks in November, he hasn’t featured in the Six Nations.
Perhaps, outside of the injuries, right wing could be the most likely change this week.
Elsewhere, you’d expect continuity. Joe Hawkins and Eddie James could start three matches in a row together if they start against Ireland.
Make it to the Italy game and they’d be the first midfield pairing to start four or more matches in a row together since Nick Tompkins and George North back in 2022.
It would also make them the ninth most regular Welsh centre combination of the last decade. For context, they are the 40th different personnel combination since the start of the 2016 Six Nations.
People are still questioning whether Hawkins, as a ball-playing option, is the right 12 for Wales, but James certainly is fulfilling his potential as a hard-carrying midfielder.
In the pack, there’s little reason to change the front-five. Wales are starting to get more out of their ball-carriers like Rhys Carre and Dewi Lake, while Ben Carter did a fine job after replacing Adam Beard.
On the bench, the fact Keiron Assiratti has been called back into the squad could mean he’s being lined up for a bench spot ahead of Archie Griffin.
Tandy spoke the other week about maybe looking at more breakdown options for their final two games. Having not parachuted Tommy Reffell in, Josh Macleod is the best option there.
As for the final spot on the bench, Blair Murray had the nod last time around.
Mason Grady showed both sides of his game on Friday night, dropping some simple balls before creating Aled Davies’ try. When he’s confident, he’s a hard man to stop – but that isn’t always the case.
Wales might also want to take a look at Bath’s Louie Hennessey at some point in this tournament – but is Dublin the place to do that?
Possible Wales team to face Ireland: Louis Rees-Zammit; Gabriel Hamer-Webb, Eddie James, Joe Hawkins, Josh Adams; Dan Edwards, Tomos Williams; Rhys Carre, Dewi Lake, Tomas Francis, Dafydd Jenkins, Ben Carter, James Botham, Alex Mann, Aaron Wainwright.
Replacements: Ryan Elias, Nicky Smith, Keiron Assiratti, Freddie Thomas, Josh Macleod, Kieran Hardy, Jarrod Evans, Blair Murray.