Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell will embark on Year No. 5 this offseason, hoping to snap the franchise’s recent pattern of good and disappointing seasons every other year. Along the way, he’ll have to dodge a relentless curse: every Coach of the Year since 2017 has been fired.
O’Connell isn’t eternally doomed, but the COTY trend is real, and the Vikings’ margin for error shrinks if the offense stays mediocre.
It’s a really strange phenomenon, but it is somehow real.
A Brutal Trend Puts Extra Heat on O’Connell in 2026
O’Connell hopes to be an outlier in a gruesome benchmark.
Coach of The Year? Great — You’re Getting Fired.
Here’s the history of the award since 2018:
2018 — Matt Nagy (Chicago Bears)
2019 — John Harbaugh (Baltimore Ravens)
2020 — Kevin Stefanski (Cleveland Browns)
2021 — Mike Vrabel (Tennessee Titans)
2022 — Brian Daboll (New York Giants)
2023 — Kevin Stefanski (Cleveland Browns)
2024 — Kevin O’Connell (Minnesota Vikings)
All besides O’Connell have been canned since winning the honor.
NFL writer Luke Hubbard scribed this week, “Since 2018, six different NFL head coaches have won the Coach of the Year award. Of those six, five have been fired. The only one who hasn’t is Kevin O’Connell, who won in 2024, just under a year ago. And for a little bit, it looked like O’Connell could have joined the list this offseason, but a late resurgence from the Minnesota Vikings potentially saved his job.”
“I’m sure most of you have heard of the Madden curse. For years, the player who was on the cover of Madden would follow it up with a terrible season. That curse has (mostly) been broken over the past few years, only to be replaced by the Coach of the Year curse.”
O’Connell must dodge the outcome that beset his COTY predecessors.
O’Connell’s Resume
O’Connell’s four years in Minnesota have a strange duality. He’s the almighty quarterback whisperer, indeed, but generally speaking, his offenses are mediocre while his team’s winning percentage is elite.
For example, since he took over in 2022, the Vikings have the NFL’s fifth-best win percentage. That’s to die for. Other franchises would take that outcome in the snap of two fingers. On the other hand, Minnesota has not won a playoff game with O’Connell and has not prevailed in a postseason contest since the 2019 season. The drought is too long.
What’s more, O’Connell is supposed to be an offensive mastermind. Well, here are his offenses’ rankings per DVOA since he arrived:
- 2022: 20th
- 2023: 23rd
- 2024: 15th
- 2025: 29th
Shouldn’t an offense-first head coach post better numbers than this?
A to Z Sports‘ Tyler Forness noted on the 2025 offense this week, “The Minnesota Vikings had the worst offense the team has seen since the turn of the century, with the majority of that being due the inconsistent quarterback play. Head coach Kevin O’Connell’s play calling has come into question multiple times throughout the season, but those got shut down after watching the all-22 coaches’ film.”
“The biggest issues weren’t the play calls per se, but rather the play design and game planning. Those aren’t all O’Connell, and it could lead to a change. Offensive coordinator Wes Phillips has been with O’Connell since the Los Angeles Rams days, and holds the same kind of offensive coordinator job that his boss did under Sean McVay: Running the offense during the week, but not calling plays on Sunday. With how poor the unit was this season, a change could be made.”
How to Avoid Termination
So, how does O’Connell not land on the ash heap of history with the fallen Coaches of the Year? The request is pretty simple: win a playoff game.
The Vikings haven’t prevailed in a postseason contest since 2019 — seven years now — and the drought is growing anxious. O’Connell has taken Minnesota to the dance twice in four years, a commendable mark, but fired up dreaded one-and-dones in both circumstances.
His defense could not stop the Daniel Jones-led New York Giants at home in 2022. His team looked unprepared in 2024 at the Los Angeles Rams. More is required.
O’Connell can avoid getting fired in 2026 if he wins a playoff game. That should serve as the litmus test and be on your mind all offseason.
A Momentous Offseason
How to get there? Well, O’Connell must decide his preferred path at quarterback, either committing to J.J. McCarthy, finding a credible go-to option at QB2 if McCarthy gets hurt, or putting McCarthy on the back burner with a trade for a player like Kyler Murray. Above all else, O’Connell must devise the best quarterback plan in 2026 that fetches a playoff win.
Then, his team has more roster needs than usual. His boss, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, will have to hit this checklist on a skinny budget:
- Safety
- Cornerback
- Inside Linebacker
- Center
- Running Back
- Defensive Tackle
None of those positions is in a state of total disrepair right now, but each spot needs help.
Defining the best plan at quarterback, drafting well in 2026, and an efficient free agency can ensure that O’Connell does not fall victim to The Coach of the Year Curse.
