Red Light Players
Right now, the Mariners project to have only about $10.1M in additional payroll for 2026. If we try to keep all three Red Light players—Naylor, Suárez, and Garver—that number could balloon to $25M+ in added payroll compared to 2025. Why? In 2025 we are only paaying Suárez and Naylor for the final third of the season after their trades, but in 2026 we’d be on the hook for full-season salaries (if we sign them)— and likely higher ones under new contracts.
Right off the bat, I am going to say The Mariners will buyout Mitch Garver with the $1M buyout because he just has not performed to the $12M expectected salary he would have in 2026. That alone would free up an additional $11.5M, giving us a total of $22.1M of Payroll for potentially signing Geno or Naylor.
Short on Funds
$22.1M is not enough for signing either Josh Naylor or Eugenio Suarez, and not both. I would expect Josh Naylors salary for 2026 to be somewhere between $15-20M range, while Eugenio Suarez may have a salary closer to $20M after this season where he is one of the league leaders in HRs and RBIs. My recommendation is to sign Josh Naylor, and here is why:
Josh Naylor: Josh Naylor is one of the best hitters in baseball, and from what we have seen he is a solid fielder too. He is left handed, which is great at T-Mobile because specifically right handed hitters have trouble with the batters eye. If I were to sign one player from our current roster to a contract, it would be josh Naylor. I have heard his value anywhere between $15M-$25M, but realistically I believe the Mariners can sign him for around $18M
Assuming we land Naylor with a $18M/year contract, we would have $4.1M remaining in our potential 2026 budget.
Eugenio Suarez: If the Mariners had unlimited money, I would 100% sign Eugenio Suarez. He is one of the best power hitters in baseball and really does elevate our team offensively. Of the “Red Light Players”, he would be someone I consider signing, but understand if we pass on him.
Geno is one of Seattles most beloved players, as he absolutely rakes and has helped us compete in the playoffs in 2022. There are 3 main reasons why we may not see Eugenio Suarez get signed
1) His 2025 contract was $15M and he had a great season, and he likely can fetch upward of $20M in 2026 (Again My Estimate, not Jeff Passan’s), which is steep for a guy who has one of the highest strikeout rates in the MLB. Baseball has no salary cap, but the Mariners surely do… We tend to be a little better than league average for payroll, but we rarely fork out $20M contracts like the Yankees, Dodgers, or Mets.
2) He is right handed, and right handed hitters struggle at T-Mobile park. This is a mystery of some sorts, but statistically right handed hitters (bother Home and Away hitters), tend to struggle at T-Mobile Park. He already is in the 4th percentile in WHIFF % (Meaning he swings and misses a lot), and it is likely only worse at T-Mobile due to the batters eye.
3) Ben Williamson showed a lot of promise as a defender and professional hitter at 3B. Now, I do not think Ben Williamson is even a close replacement at this point in his career for Eugenio Suarez. Defensilvy, Ben Williamson might be one of the best in baseball, but his hitting is not nearly as productive as Geno who can hit 40+ HRs any given season.
Again, if we had unlimited salary cap, I would 100% want Geno on the roster. However, based on our analysis, we simply do not have the expected budget in 2026 for both Naylor and Suarez.