The Washington Nationals have made sweeping changes in the last year. After nearly two decades with the organization, Mike Rizzo was let go in July and the Nationals decided to go in a new direction. That new direction led by Paul Toboni aims to be on the cutting edge, which is a stark contrast to the old school nature of the previous regime.
Fans and people like myself have been speculating all offseason about who will benefit the most from these changes. After a couple weeks of Spring Training, I think the pitching staff will be the biggest beneficiaries in the short term. The hitting development could be a longer term process.
This makes sense because it is easier to make changes as a pitcher. With all the technology out there, it is easy to learn a new pitch or make a mechanical tweak. Those minor changes can transform a pitcher overnight. For example, Cade Cavalli has already added multiple new pitches and looks better against right handed hitters so far. It is tougher for a hitter to make those overnight changes.
The Nats are going to need to see these changes produce quick results because the pitching staff was a disaster in 2025. Their 5.35 staff ERA was the second worst in baseball, only behind the Rockies. The Nats also traded away their de facto ace MacKenzie Gore this offseason. Despite that, I think the Nats will see major improvements.
One of the big reasons for that is an overhaul in pitch usage. The Nats have made it clear this spring that they will be cutting fastball usage. In Spring Training, the Nats are throwing fewer fastballs than just about anyone. This comes after a season where the Nats were near the top of the league in fastball usage.
I think this change will pay off in a big way. Nats pitchers were simply throwing their fastballs way too much. It would be understandable if the Nats pitching staff was full of guys with elite heaters, but that was not the case. A lot of Nats pitchers with mediocre fastballs were throwing the pitch at a very high rate.
That led to a lot of loud contact and inflated ERA’s. This spring Nats pitchers have held hitters to a .175 average and have 132 strikeouts in 123 innings. Obviously, that is not sustainable, but I do think Nats pitchers are not giving in as much. One side effect of this is an inflated walk rate, which I think could be an issue for the Nats. However, I think the benefits of this new approach will outweigh the potential downsides.
Nats pitchers have been raving about the new technology and the work that new pitching coach Simon Mathews has put in. In their interviews, Nationals pitchers have been wide-eyed talking about things like horizontal movement or seam shift effects. It is a very different tune from previous years.
I am not going to sit here and say the Nats will have an elite, or even average pitching staff. They do not have that kind of talent yet. However, I would be stunned if they are as bad as last year. The Nats should not have a team ERA that starts with a 5 in 2026.
The improvement is going to come from a new approach rather than flashy new signings. I think guys like Cade Cavalli, Cole Henry and Orlando Ribalta are ready to step up and take on bigger roles. All of these guys throw hard, but their success will come from their secondary pitches, not their power fastballs.
We may see bumps along the way, but I am bought into the Nationals new forward thinking vision. There should be some improvements across the board, but the pitchers will find better results faster. There is a lot of low hanging fruit for the new development team on the pitching side. A few easy changes could help a lot of these Nationals arms. I cannot wait to see their plan come together. While the Nats probably won’t be a good team, I think we will see a lot of developmental wins this season.