Thursday Night Prop Bets: Cowboys at Lions
Last Thursday’s free NFL prop picks went well, so we’re going to keep it going.
Our NFL Picks page is very popular, and our team is having a good season. You can always see their Week 14 picks here.
My Quick Links
- Jahmyr Gibbs Over 121.5 Rush & Rec Yards (-115)
- CeeDee Lamb Over 83.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Jameson Williams Over 79.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Over 54.5 Total Points -110
Cowboys at Lions Preview
The playoff race takes center stage Thursday night at Ford Field, where the Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions meet in a primetime clash that could define both teams’ postseason destinies. With the Cowboys riding a three-game winning streak after their bye, and the Lions desperately needing to stop their alternating pattern of wins and losses, this Week 14 matchup carries enormous implications in the crowded NFC playoff picture.
Dallas arrives in the Motor City with renewed confidence and a 6-5-1 record, sitting just outside the playoff cutline but armed with momentum few saw coming a month ago. Detroit, meanwhile, holds a 7-5 record but finds itself as the first team on the outside looking in, making Thursday’s home game against a surging Cowboys squad essentially a must-win affair. The stakes are stark and straightforward: victory increases playoff chances significantly for either team, while defeat could prove devastating to postseason hopes.
Contrasting Fortunes and Recent Form
The Cowboys have transformed into one of the league’s hottest teams, winning their last three games with increasingly impressive performances. After edging the Las Vegas Raiders, Dallas engineered a stunning comeback against Philadelphia, erasing a 21-0 deficit to beat the Eagles on their home turf. The momentum carried into Thanksgiving, where the Cowboys outlasted Kansas City in a 31-28 thriller that showcased their offensive firepower and renewed defensive intensity. The turnaround under first-year head coach Brian Schottenheimer has been remarkable, with defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus breathing new life into a unit that ranked 31st in points allowed but has shown dramatic improvement during the winning streak.
Detroit’s path has been far more turbulent. The Lions have alternated wins and losses over their last eight games, unable to string together the consistency that defined their historic 15-2 campaign in 2024. Most recently, they fell to Green Bay 31-24 on Thanksgiving, a game in which they were swept by the Packers for the first time since 2020. The loss dropped them to third in the NFC North and outside the playoff picture despite their winning record. Injuries have mounted at alarming rates, with the offensive line depleted and key weapons missing time. The absence of tight end Sam LaPorta for the season has already forced adjustments, and now the potential loss of star wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown looms large over Thursday’s preparations.
Historical Context and Recent Meetings
These teams share a contentious recent history, adding intrigue to Thursday’s showdown. Dallas holds a 19-13 edge in the all-time series, though the momentum has swung dramatically in recent years. The Cowboys dominated the rivalry for much of the last decade, winning six consecutive meetings at one point and holding a 7-3 advantage over the last ten matchups.
However, the most recent meeting still stings for Dallas. In October 2024, the Lions demolished the Cowboys 47-9 at AT&T Stadium in one of the most lopsided games in series history. The humiliating defeat marked Detroit’s most significant margin of victory over Dallas and served as a wake-up call for the Cowboys’ organization. Before that, Dallas had won a controversial 20-19 thriller in December 2023, a game remembered in Detroit as “The Dan Skipper Game” after a disputed eligible receiver call cost the Lions a potential game-winning two-point conversion. That loss extended Dallas’ streak to six straight victories over Detroit and remains a sore spot for Lions players and coaches who remember the agony of multiple failed conversion attempts.
Offensive Firepower on Full Display
Thursday’s game promises to be an offensive showcase, with both teams ranking in the top three in scoring. Dallas averages 29.3 points per game, second in the NFL, while Detroit sits third at 29.2 points per contest. The Cowboys lead the league in passing offense at 280 yards per game, fueled by quarterback Dak Prescott’s exceptional season. Prescott has thrown for 3,261 yards and 25 touchdowns against just eight interceptions, ranking second in the NFL in both passing yards and touchdown passes. His chemistry with the dynamic receiver duo of George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb has been lethal. Pickens, acquired from Pittsburgh in the offseason, has exceeded all expectations with 1,142 receiving yards and eight touchdowns, ranking second in the league in receiving yards. Lamb adds another dimension despite missing three games with an ankle injury, and together they form one of the most dangerous receiving tandems in football.
The Dallas ground game has found balance through Javonte Williams, who has rushed for 955 yards and eight touchdowns while providing a physical presence that complements the aerial attack. Offensive coordinator Klayton Adams has masterfully orchestrated the Cowboys’ scoring machine, finding creative ways to distribute the ball and exploit defensive weaknesses.
Detroit’s offense operates with similar efficiency under Jared Goff, who has thrown for 3,025 yards and 25 touchdowns through twelve games. The Lions’ dual-threat backfield, featuring Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, has terrorized defenses all season, with Gibbs providing explosive playmaking and Montgomery delivering power and consistency.
The question mark surrounding Amon-Ra St. Brown’s availability clouds the passing attack. St. Brown leads Detroit with 75 receptions, 884 yards, and nine touchdowns, serving as Goff’s security blanket and primary weapon. His low ankle sprain suffered against Green Bay kept him out of practice all week, and while officially listed as questionable, all indications suggest he’s unlikely to play. If St. Brown sits, Jameson Williams becomes the unquestioned number one receiver. Williams showed his capabilities on Thanksgiving, catching seven passes for 144 yards and a touchdown after St. Brown’s departure, and he’ll need to replicate that performance Thursday.
X-Factors and Game-Changers
Several elements could swing this high-stakes battle. The status of Amon-Ra St. Brown remains the most significant unknown. I would guess he’s out, but you never know. If he somehow suits up despite missing all week of practice, it dramatically alters Detroit’s offensive capabilities. More likely, his absence forces the Lions to lean heavily on Williams and rookie Isaac TeSlaa, who showed flashes on Thanksgiving but remains unproven in a featured role.
For Dallas, the health of defensive end Jadeveon Clowney bears watching. Listed as questionable with a hamstring injury, Clowney has provided veteran leadership with four sacks this season. His presence would bolster a pass rush trying to disrupt Goff’s rhythm.
The turnover battle will prove critical. Dallas has won the turnover margin in four consecutive games, a statistic that strongly correlates with its winning streak. Detroit cannot afford to give Prescott short fields or extra possessions in what figures to be a closely contested game.
The Verdict
This game carries all the hallmarks of an instant classic between two desperate teams with elite offenses. Dallas has the momentum and appears to have found its defensive identity at the perfect time. Detroit has home-field advantage and historically dominant Thursday night performances, with 45 wins on Thursdays, the most in the NFL. However, the mounting injuries and inconsistency make them vulnerable, especially against a Cowboys team playing with house money and nothing to lose.
The Cowboys’ recent defensive surge proves to be the difference in a shootout. Dallas wins 30-26 in a game that goes down to the final possession, with Prescott orchestrating a late drive that sets up a game-winning field goal. The victory propels Dallas into serious playoff contention while leaving Detroit facing an uphill battle in the NFC race.