There’s plenty of football action coming up over the next few months, including the conclusion of the domestic club seasons across Europe, the Champions League knockout rounds and, of course, the World Cup in the summer.
Plenty of opportunities for football betting, then, especially at the extended World Cup in the summer. Of course, beyond picking a winning bet, punters will be looking for value. For example, if you fancy England to win the World Cup, you can find a fair amount of disparity in the odds from bookmaker to bookmaker.
For instance, England can be found at prices ranging from 5/1 to 6/1 to win the World Cup. The difference in those odds might not look like much, but it would represent 20% higher returns should you back them – and they win – at 6/1.
Sports betting prediction markets have launched
But might we also look beyond traditional bookies? There has been an explosion in the popularity of prediction platforms. Primarily, they have been focused on current affairs, but they are now moving into sports. DraftKings, for instance, has launched a new online prediction platform covering sports games and tournaments, which you can see here: https://predictions.draftkings.com/. It also covers traditional prediction market areas like politics, stocks & financials, and pop culture.
So, what’s the difference between betting on sports via a prediction market and betting on sports via a sportsbook? The simple answer is this: With a sportsbook, you are betting against the bookmaker. They set the odds based on a variety of factors. Betting volumes influence it, but there are other factors, such as weighted probability, and so on. With a prediction market, your bet is weighed up against other people participating in the market. It is based on a yes or no principle. A percentage of the market will say that X is going to happen, whereas the rest say that X won’t happen. The odds are decided on that
Thus, for example, say that again you are looking at England winning – or not winning, for that matter – the odds are decided on the weight of money going on “yes” or “no”. There are some parallels with betting exchanges in this respect, though slight differences remain. The platform makes money by charging a small commission on each transaction or a commission on the winnings. It can vary by platform.
Shop around for the best value for your bet
Now, here’s the thing to note: It’s not always going to be the case that a prediction platform offers better odds than a sportsbook, but the key thing to understand is that they might. In fact, that’s the art here. You can look at both markets and compare them. As we said, with sportsbooks, you are taking the odds provided by the bookmaker. With prediction markets, you are looking to see whether the ‘market’ is wrong.
Prediction markets with sports betting are relatively new, so we don’t yet know how they will evolve. Perhaps professionals will use them frequently, pushing the odds to their truer form, but there are certainly opportunities to find better value than you would with a traditional bookmaker. The best rule of thumb is to select your bet before looking at either, and then head off to the sportsbook site and prediction market platform and compare odds. Simply choose the platform that offers the best value for your bet.