The Final Four on Saturday begins with the UConn Huskies going up against the Illinois Fighting Illini. UConn, a No. 2 seed, got through a high-powered East Region in dramatic fashion. Illinois, a No. 3 seed, made mostly routine work of an upset-filled South Region in which the Fighting Illini faced No. 11 VCU in round two and No. 9 Iowa in the Elite Eight.
Tipoff at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana is set for 6:09 pm ET on TBS. Here are my UConn vs. Illinois predictions.
UConn Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini odds
Money line: UConn +115 / Illinois -135
Spread: UConn +2 (-115) / Illinois -2 (-105)
Total: Over 139.5 (-112) / Under 139.5 (-108)
UConn Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini best bet #1: UConn +2 (-115)
UConn has a ton of experience. That is without question part of the reason why head coach Dan Hurley’s team survived tough games against Michigan State and Duke in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight, respectively. Upper-classmen leadership should continue to serve the Huskies well this weekend. Among the UConn stars are senior center Tarris Reed Jr., senior forward Alex Karaban, and juniors Silas Demary Jr. and Solo Ball. Karban has already won two national titles; Ball was also on the squad that won it all in 2024.
This is a rematch of a regular-season showdown on November 28 at Madison Square Garden, where UConn coasted to a 74-61 victory. There is no denying that Illinois is playing better basketball now than it was back then, but the odds are calling for a turnaround of at least 15 points. That feels like a stretch. The Huskies are 5-2 against the spread in seven postseason contests dating back to the start of the Big East Tournament. They are also 2-0 ATS in the last two head-to-head against the Fighting Illini dating back to March of 2024.
UConn Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini best bet #2: Under 139.5 (-108)
Two stellar defenses will be on display and these are also two teams that like to play slow. In other words, the recipe is perfect for a low-scoring affair. The Huskies excel at preventing opponents from getting into transition. Illinois won’t mind that, because it has no interest speeding up its offensive tempo. Half-court offense is going to be the norm in this game. These two teams are tied for No. 300 out of 365 Division I programs in pace of play at 68.0 possessions per game. They also play great defense in those half-court sets. Both rank inside the top 40 in the country in three-point defense — the Huskies at 39.7 percent and the Illini at 31.1 percent. Each side also ranks in the top 75 nationally in defensive rebounding percentage. Moreover, Illinois is No. 1 in the nation at keeping opponents away from the foul line.
The Huskies have given up more than 63 points only twice in their last seven contests; the Illini have kept their last three opponents under the 60-point mark. The under 7-4 in UConn’s last 11 overall, 3-0 in Illinois’ last three, and 2-0 in the last two head-to-head matchups.