The former Dutch rider’s view is clear: the Slovenian is likely to opt for a hard race from early on, trying to wear Van der Poel down before the decisive moments.
In this context, the Dutchman’s energy management could prove decisive for the outcome. “I would try to ride a bit on the safe side. I think this is exactly what Pogacar hopes for: that they get away together early, because that allows him to chip away at Van der Poel’s tank. You do that less quickly with Pogacar.”
“He knows: ‘This is how I can break him, we need to start the Oude Kwaremont already exhausted.’ We saw that last year as well.” In other words, Van der Poel will need to carefully measure his effort and avoid engaging too early in a direct battle, or risk paying the price later, especially on the Oude Kwaremont.
In last year’s edition, Van der Poel managed to follow the attacks for a long time but eventually cracked on the final passage over the Oude Kwaremont, the moment he let the World Champion slip away.
If the two once again find themselves alone at the front, the scenario could repeat itself, with an intense tactical duel. “Then it is up to Van der Poel to do less work in that kind of two-man break, because he has to save energy. But he is not going to completely stop riding, because that’s just not Van der Poel.”
Will we see a duel between two friends and rivals, or will in-form names like Filippo Ganna and Mads Pedersen also enter the mix, alongside Evenepoel and Van Aert? The road will decide.