Sunday Night Football in Week 15 of the 2025 NFL season is a showdown in the NFC between the Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys. Minnesota is close to being eliminated from playoff contention at 5-8, while Dallas is clinging to life in both the wild-card and NFC East races with a 6-6-1 record.
Let’s dive into my Vikings vs. Cowboys predictions.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Dallas Cowboys odds
Money line: Vikings +235 / Cowboys -290
Spread: Vikings +6.5 (-120) / Cowboys -6.5 (-102)
Total: Over 47.5 (-110) / Under 47.5 (-110)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Dallas Cowboys best bet #1: Broncos -6 (-110)
Quarterback J.J. McCarthy is back for the Vikings and that actually looks like a good thing for the visitors. That’s not saying a lot given that the alternative is Max Brosmer, but McCarthy at least performed better last week than he has at any point during his young professional career. The former Michigan standout completed 16 of 23 attempts for 163 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions during a 31-0 humiliation of Washington. Minnesota now faces a Dallas defense that has improved since the trade deadline but remains poor overall. The Cowboys rank 30th in EPA per pass and just got torched by the Lions for 44 points in Week 14. They are giving up 123.5 rushing yards per game on the sixth-most yards per carry (4.7). When RB Aaron Jones last went up against Dallas during the 2023 playoffs as a member of the Packers, he ran for 118 yards and three touchdowns.
It is the other side of the ball, though, that carries the Vikings. Their defense is ninth in the league in overall defensive EPA. Coordinator Brian Flores has a lot of solid pieces to work with and he is also making the most of them — in part by dialing up blitzes at a higher rate than any other DC in the NFL (48 percent of plays). Minnesota’s sack total (33) is modest, but the unit ranks No. 4 league wide against the pass (172.3 yards per game allowed). Look for the Vikes to keep Dak Prescott in check just enough to cover 6.5 points.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Dallas Cowboys best player prop bet: Justin Jefferson to score a touchdown (+170)
A safer play that I like is for Jones to go Over 45.5 rushing yards, but Jefferson at +170 to score a touchdown represents outstanding value. It is true that this has been a rough season for him, but that’s why you can buy low in this spot. And it’s not like it has been Jefferson’s fault. The QB play just hasn’t been there in Minnesota. That being said, McCarthy’s performance last weekend was very encouraging.
Jefferson did not get in on the fun in the Vikings’ blowout of the Commanders, but he should have every opportunity to do so against the Cowboys. Dallas is dead last in the entire NFL against the pass and no team has allowed more passing touchdowns (29). Only the Bengals are tied with the Cowboys for futility in that department. Don’t be surprised if this primetime game is a 2025 breakout of sorts for the other J.J.