Wales’ last outing was much improved – but how do they keep that going?
Wales go on the attack against Scotland(Image: Huw Evans Picture Agency)
Wales’ players have drawn a line in the sand after the narrow defeat to Scotland in the last round of Six Nations action.
Having reviewed the game back, the consensus from the playing group was clear. That is the benchmark now.
For an hour or so, Wales looked destined to end their three-year wait for a win in the Six Nations. In the end, as we all know by now, it didn’t quite end like that.
But, the blueprint was at least there. As Wales bid to avoid a third consecutive wooden spoon with matches against Ireland and Italy to come, just how do Wales keep up those green shoots from Scotland?
And just what exactly did they do so well last time out?
Fast starts and scoreboard pressure
In the five matches prior to the Scotland game that Tandy had been in charge of, Wales had led for just 21 minutes. That accounts for 3.75 per cent of their matches under the coach.
Against Argentina, New Zealand, South Africa, England and France, Wales were never once ahead. That’s not surprising, given the calibre of those sides, but it’s telling nonetheless.
Wales have been chasing games for some time now.
It’s not a new trend. Of the 25 matches since the 2023 World Cup, Wales have not held the lead at all in 15 of them. Not even for a single minute.
In only one – the win over Japan in Kobe last summer – have they been in front for longer than they were against Scotland.
The 66 minutes in front is the longest Wales have been ahead in a Six Nations match since the win over Italy in Rome back in 2023. Unsurprisingly, that was their last victory in the tournament.
On the flip side, from those 25 matches, Wales have trailed on average for 58 minutes per match. They’ve also been behind by more than one score for around just shy of 40 minutes per match – so roughly two thirds of the time spent trailing is by more than seven points.
For every game Wales have played since the start of 2024, on average they’re spending a half of them behind by more than one score.
“Confidence and momentum is such a massive thing,” said attack coach Matt Sherratt this week. “I think in the first two games we’ve been fighting the scoreboard, haven’t we?
“No matter what you do in the week, if a game starts and the opposition are on top, it can have an effect on confidence, have an effect on momentum, and then you’re chasing the game.
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“I think we started the game (against Scotland) well. We spoke before the game around just chunking the games into moments.
“Just think of the first 10 minutes, get through that, and then we’ll focus on the second 10 minutes. I think that helps players a lot. Just stay in the game.
“If you start thinking about the end result at the start of the game, you can lose your way a little bit. So I think exactly the same as we did Scotland, going into Ireland is ‘let’s just play the first kick off, play the first five minutes, get ourselves into a game and once we’re competitive, we can keep competing’.
“So I think the start had a big, big effect on how the players performed for the rest of the game.”
Being able to play with the scoreboard behind them is crucial for a side so lacking in such experience. But just how did Wales manage it?
Playing with intent and nailing those first three phases
Of course, much of that came down to intent. Sherratt said on Monday that three things can get a crowd behind a team. Effort, style of play and scoreboard.
The latter is the most important and Wales had that on their side, but that came about because of the former two. “We felt we didn’t really show enough intent in the first couple of games,” said the attack coach.
“I think from the off last weekend, the first play that we had, we got gainline and speed of ball.”
That much was clear, with Wales’ options from the lineout keeping Scotland’s defence from being overly aggressive.
On the next two phases, Wales run a similar shape that they use in the 22. One forward runs an unders line off the nine as an option, with a bank of forwards sweeping around behind.
It’s a textbook Sherratt attacking structure, not too dissimilar to what you’d see in rugby league from a play of the ball. It was visible in the game against Ireland last year, with it working well with a scrum-half with the movement and passing game of Tomos Williams.
But what really earns Wales metres is that when they run it the second time, Sam Costelow calls for the ball out the back – shifting it to Louis Rees-Zammit in the wider channel to make inroads.
“Sam was out the back of things going forward and you can see the game a lot more clearly,” explained Sherratt. “What I was really pleased was Sam was brave.
“It’s very easy just to let a game happen sometimes, especially in the early stages. What Sam did really well is if it was 50-50 to call for a ball out the back and we were 3v3 on an edge, he went for it.”
From there, Wales work it back from the left wing – with three banks of forwards pretty much set up, with Costelow and Eddie James working as the options out the back of the first two groups of forwards.
There’s no need to pull the trigger out the back – with a superb carry from Taine Plumtree getting Wales gainline.
With Scotland’s defence retreating, Wales shift the ball wide – James acts as a second-receiver – with Josh Adams and Gabriel Hamer-Webb working across to link the play.
Having gone from edge to edge, Wales are up from halfway into the Scottish 22. “Scotland have a very connected defence, so it’s quite hard to break in terms of line break, but you can take metres out of it,” added Sherratt.
“Just in terms of how we focused tactically on how we would take metres out of it helped. Going back to the point where it gave our half-back clearer pictures, our forwards went forward in terms of our carry game.
“So that was a difference, a little bit tactically and I think because the crowd got into the game and momentum was with us, that’s why we started so well.”
Using some of those traits usually reserved for the 22 helped Wales. Their efficiency has been good in the red-zone. In the first three games of the autumn, they were averaging over three points an entry.
Things had dipped a little since then. “That was kind of a work on from the autumn,” Sherratt said. “In the 22, I think we were ranked second in the competition in terms of positive outcomes from there. We just need to get in there more.”
Here’s the thing. Ireland will know this is coming.
Even if they haven’t gone over the footage from the Scotland game, this is exactly how Wales made metres against the Irish in Cardiff last year.
That was Sherratt’s first game in interim charge, but the shape of play was clear to see. The ability to reproduce that has come and gone across the last 12 months, but Scotland was a step forward in that regard.
Statistically, Scotland can look like an outlier in terms of Tandy’s matches in charge. The match featured the third highest carries over 80 minutes under the head coach, but resulted in the second lowest metres gained.
In all honesty, you have to look beyond the statistics on this one. It’s hard to quantify by just how much, but moments in the Scotland game count for that little bit more – because the scoreboard was still a factor.
So many metres in other games would have come when the game was over as a contest. Against Scotland, Wales were smart with how they played.
There was intent, as demonstrated by the way they got their first three phases – a work on in the week from the France game – right so often, while they managed to get the best out of carriers like Rhys Carre, with little tip-on passes.
But, as Ryan Elias alluded to earlier this week, they weren’t reckless. The balance was there. If the 50/50 is on, they went for it. Like this Williams tap penalty from his own half that allowed James to carry into the 22 after recognising the space behind the Scottish defence.
Yet they also kicked smart.
Wales’ second try came from recognising momentum had gone on first-phase – with Gabriel Hamer-Webb held up for a few moments in the staple of Tandy’s Scotland defence; the two-man tackle.
Going one phase back in-field, Costelow recognises the space and kicks behind for territory.
Things starting to work in defence
Defensively, Wales still had work-ons. 12 linebreaks is concerning and Scotland got plenty of metres out of them from first-phase.
But, to Wales’ credit, they scrambled well. And as the phase count went up, their defence looked more comfortable.
The two-man tackle blueprint was finally easy to see, with Wales working well to create breakdown opportunities within that – particularly close to their own line.
“A lot of things that we’ve spoken about together as a group have come out in that Scotland game,” said second-row Ben Carter this week. “I thought a lot of the collisions were good and ultimately that feeds into the rest of the game.
“It gave a lot of time for organising. That was front of mind in the Scotland game.
“The pressure is on that it has to be the standard. We’ve got to keep pushing forward because that’s the baseline.
“There’s three principles driven into us. What I’ve enjoyed is it leaves you with not too much to think about.
“You can go into games quite free, going after those three things.”
Quite what those three principles are, Carter didn’t elaborate on.
But Tandy has been big on having numbers on feet, his defence being connected – if not overly aggressive – and having two men in the collision to slow down the tackle and allow the defence to reset.
Those things, based on the Scotland performance, are starting to come through.
But as with every facet of the game, the trip to Dublin offers another test altogether.