What a good season looks like for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in 2026

Blue Jays: What a good season looks like for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in 2026

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is arguably the toughest Toronto Blue Jay to grade from year to year.

He’s given fans a mixed bag of results since his debut in 2019. Some seasons are underwhelming (see 2020 and 2023), some are All-Star caliber (see 2022, 2024, and 2025), and then there’s his near-MVP 2021 campaign that sits in a league of its own.

I classified Guerrero’s 2025 season as All-Star caliber, however I would also be driven to say it was on the low end of that category. He hit just .203 over his final 18 regular season games, and his final numbers for the season looked more like he was hitting for average than hitting for power. In total, Guerrero slashed .292/.381/.467 with an .848 OPS, 23 home runs, 84 RBIs, and 34 doubles in 156 games last season. He made his fifth consecutive All-Star game, and he also finished as a Gold Glove finalist among American League first basemen, with fellow Blue Jay Ty France winning it.

The regular season numbers quickly became overshadowed by what he achieved during Toronto’s run to the World Series. He put up a tremendous .397/.494/.795 slash line through 18 playoff games, including 8 home runs (setting a franchise record for postseason home runs), 15 RBIs, and only seven strikeouts. Watching him step up in the playoffs was genuinely special, and it added more face-of-the-franchise flavor to his career palette.

Top Plays of 2025: No. 21

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. CLOBBERS a grand slam in the ALDS!

With last season out of the way, it’s time to look into the 2026 season for Guerrero. Let’s take a look at what needs to carry over, as well as some areas that, should Guerrero take a step forward in them, would make his ’26 campaign a successful one.

The first trait of Guerrero’s game that I want to point out has been one of his best. Say what you will about him, but you can’t doubt his durability. Since his first full season in the big leagues in 2021, he has played at least 156 games every year, and he’s failed to land on the Injured List once. In some cases, availability is the best ability. He’s one of the most exciting players in the game, and the organization and fans have been spoiled by his name being written down on the lineup card almost every night.

Guerrero had a well-above league average strikeout rate (13.8%) and walk rate (11.9%), and he continued hitting the ball hard as he ranked in the 88th and 90th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and Hard Hit Percentage.

His numbers in clutch situations were also in very good shape; he hit .307 with a .915 slugging percentage with runners in scoring position, as well as a .300 average and .908 slugging percentage with runners in scoring position and two outs. Per Baseball Reference, Guerrero slashed .333/.444/.484 in high leverage situations, and he posted OPS’s over .900 in “Late & Close” games and in 9th innings.

It’s not as easy as it sounds, but Guerrero carrying all of this over to next season would be great.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (4)

Opponent: Boston Red Sox
Pitcher: Justin Slaten
Date: 5/1/25

As for where Guerrero can take a step forward, I think Guerrero can be more of a catalyst while the team is in a slump. Two particular stretches of play come to mind; one of which was the Blue Jays losing five of six to the Astros and Yankees in late-April. The Blue Jays were outscored 33-9 and mustered only 31 hits in those games. Over that same stretch, Guerrero recorded three hits in 21 at-bats with one extra-base hit.

In the middle of September and the American League East race getting tighter, the Blue Jays suffered through a 1-6 stretch in games against the Rays, Royals, and Red Sox. Toronto was outscored 44-13 and generated 34 hits in those games, and they watched their AL East lead dwindle down to a mere tiebreaker over the Yankees. Guerrero had just four hits in 26 at-bats with one extra-base hit in those seven games.

While team slumps are bound to happen and will happen at some point every season, Guerrero is good enough to be the catalyst that can give the team life. Correlation does not equal causation, but it is hard to ignore the .208/.309/.343 slash line he put up in losses last season. In both of those aforementioned lulls, Daulton Varsho, Alejandro Kirk, and even Anthony Santander had “the big hit” to get Toronto’s offense moving in the right direction. Others are allowed to get it done, but to whom much is given, much is expected. When the team needs it most, I’d want to look to Guerrero to get the job done.

Guerrero also had several series last year where his output against playoff-worthy opponents left a lot to be desired. He went 3-for-23 six games against the Phillies, 2-for-13 in a three games against the Padres, 1-for-11 against the Brewers, 4-for-23 in six games against the Royals, and he hit just .229 in 13 games against the Rays. Again, slumps are part of the game, but when the stakes are highest, Guerrero has the most expectations.

Sure, a lot of what Guerrero did last year was overshadowed by his exceptional postseason performance, and it should’ve been. He took a step forward, and like I mentioned earlier, it was face-of-the-franchise-worthy. However, while the above numbers sound like cherry picking, the Blue Jays aren’t guaranteed a spot in the playoffs next season. With Baltimore and Boston already beefing up and the Yankees bound to do something (whatever that may be) the AL East is going to demand an elite level of play from whoever wins the division or makes it to the playoffs.

Between 2024 and 2025 Guerrero had 28-less extra-base hits, coinciding with a 77-point drop in slugging and a near-100-point drop in OPS. I’m sure the organization would love to see those figures take a jump back up to where they were in ’24, and I’m not even talking only about homers, although they would be welcome.

In summation, Guerrero had a good last season, but a better 2026 would look a lot more like his ’24 numbers coupled with a step forward against better competition and his performance while the team is slumping. It’s looking like the front office will have some sort of protection in the lineup incoming, whether that be Bo Bichette, Kyle Tucker, or someone else, which will only side in Guerrero’s favor.

I think we all know what Guerrero is capable of, and like I said earlier, to whom much is given, much is expected.

Leave a Reply Cancel reply