IU basketball will look to avoid a 0-3 record on its final home stand this season when it hosts Minnesota on Wednesday night at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. The Golden Gophers are 14-15 overall, 7-11 in the Big Ten and won the first meeting 73-64 on December 3 in Minneapolis.
Wednesday’s game is set for a 6:30 p.m. ET tip-off on BTN. IU’s six seniors will be honored before the game, a break from the program’s previous tradition.
Indiana beat Oregon 92-74 to improve to 17-8 overall and 8-6 in the Big Ten. At the time, the Hoosiers looked like a strong candidate to make the NCAA tournament for the first time since the 2022-23 season, the final campaign for Trayce Jackson-Davis in Bloomington.
Fast forward exactly 22 days and Indiana hasn’t won a game since. Three of IU’s four losses since the Oregon win have come by 13 or more points. The Hoosiers also fell to Northwestern at home, their sixth straight loss to the Wildcats overall and their fourth straight in Bloomington.
The final chance to earn a win at home this season comes against Minnesota on Wednesday night.
Indiana’s NCAA tournament at-large chances have taken significant damage in this four-game losing streak, but a narrow path still exists. The path includes beating a Minnesota program playing just six players due to injuries, with a first-year coach, Niko Medved, and without a win in Assembly Hall since 2012.
THE FIRST MATCHUP
Indiana’s first loss this season came against Minnesota at Williams Arena. After leading by eight points in the first half, the Hoosiers collapsed down the stretch in a nine-point loss.
In the first meeting, Minnesota only played eight players, and the Gophers are now playing just six regularly, as junior forward Jaylen Crocker-Johnson has missed the last five games and is likely out for the season, and sophomore big man Nehemiah Turner hasn’t played since December 21.
The first matchup was highlighted by Indiana’s poor 3-point shooting. The Hoosiers shot 8-for-27 on 3s, just a 29.6 percent mark from distance. Lamar Wilkerson and Tucker DeVries shot a combined 5-for-16 from deep.
Minnesota’s guards, Isaac Asuma and Langston Reynolds, also dominated Indiana’s guards off the dribble. The Gophers shot 57.7 percent on 2s in Minneapolis and the duo of Asuma and Reynolds combined to shoot 10-for-16 on 2s, with most of those looks coming at the rim.
The Gophers also did an excellent job of exploiting Indiana’s tendency to play defense with its hands, getting to the free-throw line 27 times. Minnesota shot 19-for-27 from the stripe in the win, while the Hoosiers went just 12-for-20.
Second-chance points were also a massive problem for Indiana in the first matchup. Minnesota rebounded 33.3 percent of its missed shots and turned 10 offensive rebounds into 14 second-chance points. Given Indiana’s continued struggles in finishing defensive possessions on the first shot, a repeat performance on the defensive glass could lead to significant problems on Wednesday.
Minnesota will enter Wednesday’s game with confidence from the first meeting and the Gophers are also playing well despite their limited depth. Minnesota has won three of its last four games, just beat UCLA at home and is up to No. 64 in KenPom.
TEMPO-FREE PREVIEW
Minnesota is playing the slowest tempo of any Big Ten team and will try to play a deliberate pace to keep its players as fresh as possible and limit transition for the Hoosiers.
The Gophers don’t emphasize crashing the offensive glass, which makes it essential for Indiana to close out defensive possessions on the first shot. Minnesota is attempting 50.7 percent of its shots in Big Ten play from beyond the 3-point line, so there will be a lot of long rebounds and 50-50 balls that the Hoosiers must corral.
Minnesota does a good job of defending without fouling, but its 2-point field goal percentage defense isn’t great and it cannot afford to be overaggressive in challenging shots at the rim, given its limited depth. Indiana would be well served to get paint touches before settling for 3-pointers.
WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO
The KenPom projection is Indiana by six with a 71 percent chance of a win. Bart Torvik also projects a six-point IU win with a win probability of 74 percent.
Indiana’s four-game losing streak has featured losses in three games in which it was an underdog. The clear outlier was the Northwestern loss, a damaging setback the Hoosiers couldn’t afford.
Indiana is unlikely to make the NCAA tournament at this point, but it is still technically on the bubble. If it wants to make Saturday’s game at Ohio State mean something, a win on Wednesday night is necessary.
How the Hoosiers come out and perform against Minnesota will tell the tale of where this group is mentally. Will Indiana get up off the mat and end its losing streak? Or will the Hoosiers go quietly in March, content to finish out the first season of the Darian DeVries with another loss?
(Photo credit: Minnesota Athletics)
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