Australia thrashed India by 184 runs on Monday, December 30, and took the Boxing Day Test at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, taking a 2-1 lead in the 2024-25 season of Border-Gavaskar Trophy. The victory of more than 70,000 fans in Melbourne on Monday has boosted Australia’s hopes for the first Border-Gavaskar Trophy win since the edition of 2014-15. It also sets their chances for making it to the World Test Championship (WTC) final in it for the second consecutive season. Australia played in the WTC final in 2023 and defeated India by 209 runs at The Oval to become champions.
India lost the Boxing Day Test for the first time in 13 years against Australia at MCG; hence, India can’t win the Border-Gavaskar Trophy now, but a victory in the fifth and final Test, which will be played at Sydney Cricket Ground from January 3-7, 2025, will see Rohit Sharma’s men retain the BGT. Additionally, the first Test victory at SCG since January 1978, too, would keep India alive in its aspirations to qualify for what would be the WTC 2025 final, slated for Lord’s between June 11 and 15 next year.
India cannot have anything less than a win if it is to keep its hopes alive for BGT retention. A draw or defeat in Sydney will wipe India out. Currently, as of now, India has 114 points in the WTC 2023-25. They will end with 126 out of a possible 228 if Rohit Sharma’s men win. 126/228 points will help India end with 55.26 PCT% in the WTC 2023-25 cycle.
As of now, Australia has 118 points, and the champion team can finish a maximum of 154 points out of a total of 228 if they win the next three matches. In fact, three wins in the next three matches would guarantee Australia a position in the WTC 2025 final opposite South Africa. To add to that, even if they win just one of the remaining three Tests, they will still be able to qualify.
On the contrary, if Australia loses to India in Sydney and Sri Lanka go on to beat them by 2-0 or 1-0, India will finish above in points tally and qualify for the WTC final at Lord’s next year.
There is also a scenario under which both India and Australia can have the same points. This will happen should India win the Sydney Test, and the Sri Lanka-Australia Test series in January-February finishes 0-0. In that case, India and Australia will finish with 126 points each out of a maximum of 228 in the WTC 2023-25 cycle.
In such a case where both countries finish on an identical number of points (126) and PCT% (55.26), then the higher number of series wins will hold a team into the final. However, because India and Australia both will end the 2023-25 WTC cycle winning three series, it will be the team with a higher percentage of points earned away from home matches that will go through.
India played two matches in the West Indies in the 2023-25 cycle (1 win and 1 draw), two in South Africa (1 win and 1 loss), and five in Australia (2 wins, 2 losses, and 1 draw), earning 56 out of 108 possible points (51.85 percent-wins). On the other hand, Australia played from before in this period five Tests in England (2 wins, 2 losses, and 1 draw), played two Tests in New Zealand (2 wins), and two Tests in Sri Lanka (2 draws) and managed to have 60 out of 108 possible points (55.56 win%).
