La Primavera, La Classicissma, the first Monument of the season, the Sprinter’s Classic, the long one that’s boring for 260km, whatever you want to call it, it’s Milan-San Remo time once again.
The race heads south from Pavia and over the Passo Turchino before following the picturesque Ligurian Riviera west over the famous Cipressa and Poggio climbs before finishing on the Via Roma in San Remo after 289km of racing. After its comeback last year, the women’s peloton will be also race up the Poggio as part of Saturday’s festivities, though their race is a slightly shorter affair at 160km in length.
Mathieu van der Poel tops the bookmakers’ list, with odds at around 6/4. The remnants of last year’s podium follow suit in Tadej Pogačar and Filippo Ganna, with Jasper Philipsen over the double digits at 11/1. For the women’s race, last year’s winner Lorena Wiebes is the odds-on favourite at 10/11 followed by Elisa Longo Borghini at 6/1 and both Marianne Vos and Lotte Kopecky at 7/1. We’ve trawled through the start list, and here are our favourites for the 2026 Milan-San Remo.
Men’s Milan-San Remo favourites 2026
Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Premier Tech)
Mathieu van der Poel is familiar with the top step of the Classicissima podium. He’s won two of the past three editions, and at the 2024 race, he pulled teammate Jasper Philipsen over the Poggio to extinguish the chances of Pogačar and open the door for Philipsen to the win.
Van der Poel clearly has the skillset to win. He’s got the explosive kick, descending skills and explosivity to win a reduced sprint. His form also looks great, having won Omloop Nieuwsblad and two stages of Tirreno-Adriatico in recent weeks. The Alpecin-Premier Tech leader managed to pick up the Milan-San Remo trophy on worse pre-race form last year, so just imagine what he will do when he’s on full throttle.
Form, skills and pedigree. You’d be naive to bet against Van der Poel. There’s a chance he’ll be riding a new bike too.
Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates XRG)
In theory, Tadej Pogačar should be able to win this race. He’s explosive, has a good sprint and has a strong team at his disposal. However, over the past few editions, he’s just come up short. Last year was perhaps the best demonstration of that, having attacked on the Cipressa, but he was unable to shake off Van der Poel.
Given he threw the kitchen sink at this race 12 months ago, it’s unclear what he needs to do to go the distance. Mathieu van der Poel has managed to get the better of him in three consecutive editions despite Pogačar being in tip-top form. If there’s anything left for the Slovenian, it’s to set a relentless tempo with his team and hope for a tailwind.
Pogačar has finished four of his five San Remo attempts within the top five. He’s never finished above third place, so a runners-up spot would actually be a rare improvement for the World Champion.
Filippo Ganna (Ineos Grenadiers)
Filippo Ganna has been a surprise quantity at Milan-San Remo. He’s finished on the podium twice before, even finishing second last year. That record places him as the bookmakers’ third favourite for victory on Saturday.
The Italian is not your typical Milan-San Remo contender. He doesn’t quite have that punch to beat a Van der Poel or Philipsen but has improved in that area, and you certainly wouldn’t want to be the one tasked with chasing him down if he goes solo. Based on recent form as well, Ganna is just as strong as normal, having ridden a decent Tirreno-Adriatico last week.
While Ganna has managed to pick up those podium sports without much team support, Ineos’s line-up is strong. Axel Laurance, Josh Tarling and Ben Turner could end up playing important roles come the final 30km. However, after last year’s Cipressa attack, Ganna has proven that he can do it all by himself if necessary.
Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Premier Tech)
Jasper Philipsen won Milan-San Remo two years ago, having defeated Tadej Pogačar and Michael Matthews in a final dash to the line. Yet, on his return last year, the Belgian was dropped early, left to finish in 163rd place. If we look past that poor perfromance last spring, it would be silly to completely underestimate the capabilities of this former Primavera winner.
The Belgian sprinter – nicknamed ‘The Flame of Ham’ (his hometown, it works better in Flemish: de Vlam van Ham) – has looked hit or miss so far this season. He was struggling throughout the Volta ao Algarve and Tirreno-Adriatico, leaving both races winless. A poor opening weekend also left a bitter taste in his mouth as he entered March without a victory to his name. Luckily, victory at Nokere Koerse seems to have quietened those woes, but his form remains quite shaky.
Philisen won’t be the one to attack Pogačar on the Poggio, so he’ll have to hold tight for a tamer race than 2025. That will be decided mainly by UAE Team Emirates, who will need a high pace to set up a Pogačar move. If those tactics backfire however, Philipsen could come back into mix.
Matthew Brennan (Visma-Lease a Bike)
Visma-Lease a Bike bring 2020 winner Wout van Aert, but Matthew Brennan looks the most likely contender for the Dutch squad here.
Brennan has been in solid form so far in 2026. He bagged a stage victory at the Tour Down Under, then his biggest Classic win to date at Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne. The 20-year-old has proven his sprinting prowess, and his ability to hang on over climbs appears more seasoned than many of his sprinting contemporaries.
If Van Aert and Matteo Jorgenson play loyal teammates, Visma could carry Brennan to a landmark result. In fact, he’d become the youngest winner in the race’s history.
Tom Pidcock (Pinarello-Q36.5)
Milan-San Remo feels like the kind of race that should suit Tom Pidcock. His daredevil descending will be an asset if he manages to go clear over the top of the Poggio, and his punchy kick should give him an edge when the attacks roll on the climb.
Pidcock has been in decent form in 2026. He picked up an early win at the Vuelta a Andalucia, but suffered his worst career result at Strade Bianche. That said, a win earlier this week at Milano-Torino showed some signs of life.
He hasn’t won a Monument before, with a podium finish at Liège-Bastogne-Liège his only top three. A podium here would be huge for his Pinarello-Q36.5 squad, but the team look weak when compared to his rivals. It’s also hard to imagine a world in which Pidcock drops Pogačar, or one in which he outsprints Van der Poel.
Outside bets
Milan-San Remo hasn’t been won by an outsider in five years. Chances are, we’ve already mentioned the name of the winner. If not, let’s cover some underrated names.
Milan-San Remo has favoured puncheurs in recent years. In that case, we could see Romain Grégoire of Groupama-FDJ United rub shoulders at the the head of the race. The Frenchman has been on good form this year, having finished in fourth at Strade Bianche, and he almost clung onto the winning move at last year’s race.
More likely to finish lower down in the top ten, Mauro Schmid has been in good form since the beginning of 2026, while Julian Alaphilippe and Giulio Pellizzari could hope for the best when the road goes uphill.
If it comes down to a sprint on the Via Roma, the list of favourites could open up. Biniam Girmay has the characteristics for this profile, as do Laurence Pithie, Paul Magnier and Corbin Strong. For more thoroughbred sprinters, keep an eye out for the in-form Tobias Lund Andresen.
Women’s Milan-San Remo favourites 2026
Lorena Wiebes (SD Worx-Protime)
Reigning champion Lorena Wiebes will start Milan-San Remo as the favourite. This race has been long described as ‘The Sprinter’s Classic’, and Wiebes seems to have brought that mantra over to the revived women’s race with her win 12 months ago, which was delivered to her on a plate after teammate Lotte Kopecky hauled back Elisa Longo Borghini’s attack.
Form is not a question mark for Wiebes, who won three stages last month at the UAE Tour. And her climbing has improved substantially over the past year, so the Cipressa and Poggio will be even less of a worry this year. What we don’t know this year, however, is how hard the riders will race up the Poggio. My gut says it will be at a softer pace than in 2025, given the reduction in top GC names to line up at the start. That should play in to Wiebes’s hands.
SD Worx-Protime’s roster is strong on paper. Lotte Kopecky and Blanka Vas could be leaders in their own right, so if they join forces, the squad could be a force to be reckoned with. However, this is SD Worx and things can often backfire with this team. Regardless of any potential drama, Wiebes should still be able to weave her way into the mix once again.
Marianne Vos (Visma-Lease a Bike)
This is one of the few races missing from Marianne Vos’s palmares. However, it’s one that a prime Vos would have eaten up in the 2010s. That said, she’s still got that special something having finished in second place on the Via Roma last year.
Vos is certainly capable of making it up the Poggio with the favourites, is certainly a skilled descender and is certainly one of the fastest sprinters. She has proven her sprinting capability time and time again, but she’ll need her teammates to crank up the pace in order to put Lorena Wiebes in difficulty.
That’s where I have some doubts. Visma-Lease a Bike’s roster isn’t too strong. It’s not quite leadout train material, but there are some climbers at least to try and weed out the group if someone drops the gauntlet. Vos is experienced and she knows how to win races, on the other hand. If she doesn’t make find herself in the front group on Saturday, I’d be very surprised.
Lotte Kopecky (SD Worx-Protime)
Last year, Lotte Kopecky sacrificed her Milan-San Remo debut and instead worked to bring the race together for a sprint, eventually won by teammate Lorena Wiebes. The following months were disappointing, but Kopecky seems to have refound her winning legs ahead of this year’s Milan-San Remo. A victory earlier this week at Nokere Koerse proves that, having defeated some talented sprinters at that Belgian one-day race.
While it feels a long time since we saw Kopecky at her best, she is one of the fastest sprinters in the bunch, plus she has the climbing legs and bike handling to tame the Poggio. It will, however, be interesting to see how she balances out her own chances with teammate Lorena Wiebes this year. They have two strong cards to play here, so it may take some crystal clear communication to be sure of their strategy in the final 20km.
Elisa Balsamo (Lidl-Trek)
Elisa Balsamo will lead Lidl-Trek after a dissappointing opening to the 2026 season.
Balsamo has been a serial Trofeo Alfredo Binda winner, so there’s some validity in her favourite status. The two races are similar in profile, but she mysteriously skipped her title defence last week. Otherwise, her form this year has been average, with no wins to her name yet. She was defeated last month by Chiara Consonni at the Vuelta a Extremadura, which doesn’t fill me with confidence. Nevertheless, she’s a sprinter who can climb, and she’s absolutely capable of hanging on if it doesn’t get too fragmented over the Poggio.
Lidl-Trek have often risen to the occasion in big races, but their results this year have been poor. There’s a real lack of momentum within the team, which keeps getting hit with injury and illness. That’s left them with just one victory so far in 2026: the Australian time-trial championships. In that case, the ball may not be in Balsamo’s court.
Kim Le Court-Pienaar (AG Insurance-Soudal)
Kim Le Court-Pienaar has finished inside the top ten at every Monument she entered last year, including a fifth place finish at last year’s Milan-San Remo. Her versatility often makes her reliable, having a mix of climbing legs and a sprinter’s kick.
This year, she hasn’t looked quite as good as she did in 2025, which, in fairness, was a remarkable season for the Mauritian. A fourth place at the UAE Tour last month was solid, but she was a part of the group that went off course at Strade Bianche, so we don’t know how she would’ve done had the race played out normally. Putting that to one side though, a fully fit Le Court-Pienaar is the exact kind of rider who should be able to podium Milan-San Remo.
AG Insurance-Soudal bring a strong fleet of domestiques to support Le Court-Pienaar in the final 50km of Saturday’s race. Letizia Borghesi could be a notable asset on the Poggio after her top five result last week at Trofeo Binda. If she’s on a good day, she might be able to bag another top five finish here.
Outside bets
With just one edition for comparison, it’s hard to tell just how the race will go. Since we’ve given priority to the sprinters, let’s use this opportunity to highlight the puncheurs.
UAE Team ADQ are the team on fire at the moment, and they’ll have their hopes pinned on Elisa Longo Borghini, who almost won with a solo attack last year. The Italian was strong at Strade Bianche and played a big role in Trofeo Binda last weekend. She’s hungry to win this race, which takes place not far from her home region of Piedmont.
Puck Pieterse and Yara Kastelijn will anchor Fenix-Premier Tech. The former is a great bike handler with experience in cyclocross and mountain biking. She’s also got a decent sprint on her, but recent race results seem to suggest she may start on the back foot.
British hopes will be pinned on Cat Ferguson, Pfeiffer Georgi and Millie Couzens. Movistar’s Ferguson has picked up some wins already in 2026 while Georgi rode to an impressive GC result at the UAE Tour in February and finished with the big names at Trofeo Binda. This race, with less climbing, will suit her better, and she has a strong sprint, so expect her to be present in the finale. British National Champion Couzens is having a real breakthrough spring so far, with strong top tens in Valenciana, Omloop and Trofeo Oro.