Troy Renck: Because success is intoxicating, with no concern for nuance or whether it is legit or phony, reality can be sobering. Truth is, matchups matter in the postseason. Two things can be true about the Broncos: They should be celebrated for a U-turn that has been nothing short of remarkable. And they should also be viewed as vulnerable, even while playing at home. With the wide-open AFC field set, it is time to take a deep breath and consider who is the best opponent for the Broncos in the divisional round?
Sean Keeler: I’ll take the Steelers for 200, Alex. Because “200” is about how many yards I can see Old Man Aaron Rodgers throwing for against this Broncos defense — and that’s as a best-case scenario. It was hard to look away from the end of Pittsburgh-Baltimore on Sunday night, which felt way more like a playoff game than Broncos-Chargers ever did. And all I could keep thinking was, ‘Man, I do not love the idea of Vance Joseph’s beat-up safety group having to tackle Derrick Henry for three hours.’ Well, thanks to Tyler Loop, we don’t have to worry about that.
Renck: The Steelers have no chance of beating the Broncos. Ben Roethlisberger, in his prime, couldn’t do it in 2015. And 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers, near the end of his time, won’t. Or get the chance. He will be eliminated. Bring on the Texans. The Texans believe they would have beaten Denver earlier this season if quarterback C.J. Stroud had not been knocked out with a concussion. Their defense is nasty, so why would they make the most favorable matchup? History. The Texans have never won a divisional game, posting an 0-6 record. All on the road. The Broncos are built to win ugly, so Houston dragging them into the mud will be welcomed in a low-scoring home game.
Keeler: A Broncos-Texans rematch should come with a “Viewer Discretion Is Advised” TV warning before kickoff. History says you’d welcome the Texans in your house for the postseason — Houston’s also 0-6 all-time as a road playoff team. But oh-fers don’t last forever, do they? Denver handed the Texans their last loss, and that tilt saw all kinds of fluke-y stuff, Davis Mills chief among then, that swung it toward the orange and blue. And while I like the matchup of the Broncos’ nasty front versus Houston’s iffy offensive line, I’m less crazy about a motivated Texans bunch coming in here riding a 10-game win streak.
Renck: Arguments can be advanced that the Broncos would be better off playing the Chargers, a team decimated by offensive line issues that were exploited Sunday. But facing an opponent three times is dicey, with familiar breeding contempt and insight. And be careful asking for the Bills. They lack weapons on both sides of the ball, but do you really want to risk Josh Allen throwing on a cape in a revenge game against Denver not drafting him? The reality is that the Broncos can beat anyone. Or lose to anyone. But given Denver’s offensive limitations, the Texans represent the most favorable matchup because it plays into the Broncos’ strength of leaning into their defense and raucous crowd to squeak out a hand-wringing victory.
Keeler: It’s about matchups from here on out, and Josh Allen is one I’d absolutely be looking to avoid. Not crazy about a Jags rematch, for obvious reasons, or a Chargers team that’s got Justin Herbert instead of Trey Lance slinging it around. But Pittsburgh, on paper, ticks the most boxes right now. Pittsburgh’s offensive line is salty, but so is Rodgers’ beard. In his last two games versus a VJ defense, A-Rod is 1-1, has averaged 205 passing yards and 16.5 points, all while getting sacked six times. When Rodgers has been sacked four or more times in the postseason, he’s 1-5. Like those odds. Especially at home.
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