Jessica Pegula’s chances of winning a second WTA 1000 title this year ended on Wednesday as she lost to Elena Rybakina in three sets.
Pegula took an early 6-2 lead in the quarter-final match and looked set to take full control when she had multiple break-point opportunities at 2-2 in the second set.
Pegula was unable to capitalise and Rybakina took control thereafter, eventually winning the match 2-6, 6-3, 6-4.
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Despite the disappointment, Pegula can be proud of her start to the year; and she is now has a shot at becoming the American number one once again.
With thousands of points up for grabs during the clay-court swing, Coco Gauff’s position as the American number one is under threat.
Why Jessica Pegula will eclipse Coco Gauff and become American number one by the end of the clay-court swing
As things stand, Coco Gauff is on 7,018 WTA ranking points – 775 ahead of Jessica Pegula.
| Player | WTA Ranking | Points |
| Coco Gauff | 3 | 7,628 |
| Jessica Pegula | 4 | 6,243 |
| Amanda Anisimova | 5 | 6,180 |
If Gauff were to win the Miami Open, this gap would increase to 1,385.
This may seem like a large gap to overcome across the clay-court season.
However, Pegula has very few points to defend across this period, while Gauff is defending thousands.
Gauff has 3,408 WTA points to defend after winning the French Open and reaching the final in Madrid and Rome.
Pegula, meanwhile, only has 510 points to defend.
This situation has given Pegula an opportunity to capitalise, and a strong clay-court season would most likely see her usurp Gauff as the American number one.
Pegula has also been the most in-form American player at the start of this year.
While Coco Gauff, Amanda Anisimova and Madison Keys have all suffered early exits at events, Pegula has consistently reached the latter stages: as demonstrated by her run to the Australian Open semi-finals, and by her title-winning run in Dubai.
Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff’s head-to-head record
Pegula has a positive record against Gauff, winning five of their eight matches on the WTA Tour.
The pair last played each other in the group stage of the 2025 WTA Finals.
Pegula emerged victorious on that occasion, defeating her compatriot 6-3, 6-7, 6-2.
“It was a very up-and-down match,” Pegula said afterwards, as per the WTA Tour. “Luckily, I was able to get through. I just had to pick up on a few things to turn the match around. I had to compete and fight — and I thought I did that well.”
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As for Gauff, she said: “Obviously, little frustrated with the serve today.
“Overall, it was a tough match for me. Jess played well and I thought she was playing a bit smarter than she was when we played in Wuhan.”