The race for the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) 2023-25 final is heating up, with South Africa’s recent win in Durban shaking up the standings.
The race for the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) 2023-25 final is heating up, with South Africa’s recent win in Durban shaking up the standings. South Africa now sits in second place between Australia and India, while Sri Lanka and New Zealand remain in contention at fifth and fourth, respectively.
Despite the crowded competition, India’s path to their third consecutive WTC final is still within reach, though it may require external results or even a tie-breaker.
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Scenarios for India’s Qualification
Sarvesh, a cricket analyst, outlined the possible scenarios for India’s qualification on X. India’s chances largely depend on their performance in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) and the outcomes of other series.
If India wins two of their remaining four matches, they can eliminate New Zealand, who can only reach a maximum PCT of 57.1%. However, to guarantee qualification, India needs at least a 3-1 series win against Australia to stay ahead in the race.
A 3-1 victory in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy would boost India’s chances, but they would still need South Africa to beat Sri Lanka in the second Test. If India wins 3-2, they will depend on Sri Lanka either losing or drawing at least one match against Australia to keep their hopes alive.
What if the BGT Series Ends 2-2?
A 2-2 result in the BGT makes things much harder for India. They would need South Africa to beat Sri Lanka 2-0 and hope Sri Lanka wins by no more than 1-0 against Australia. The most interesting scenario would be if both the BGT ends 2-2 and the Sri Lanka-Australia series ends in a 0-0 draw. In this case, India and Australia would have the same PCT of 55.3%, which could lead to a tie-breaker.
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What Happens in a Tie-Breaker?
If India and Australia are tied, the following criteria would decide the finalist:
1. Series Wins: Both teams would end with three series wins, leaving nothing to separate them.
According to the rule 16.12.2 “Where two or more teams have an identical Points Percentage at the end of the Round stage, they will beordered by the higher number of Series wins”.
2. Away Series Wins: Both teams would have the same number, so it wouldn’t decide the winner.
According to the rule 16.12.3 “If still equal, they will be ordered by the higher percentage of available points earned by each team in their away matches (Away Points Percentage)”.
3. ICC Test Rankings: Australia, currently ahead of India, would likely maintain their higher position and qualify.
According to the rule 16.12.4 “If still equal, the team that is ranked in the higher position in the ICC Men’s Test Team Rankings as at the final day of the Competition Window (Wednesday 30 April 2025) shall be placed higher”.
India’s best chance is to win at least three matches in the BGT, with a 4-1 or 3-0 result being the most ideal. However, if things don’t go as planned, India’s qualification might depend on a tie-breaker, where the ICC rankings will play a key role.
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