As the 2026 Formula 1 season heads to Suzuka, Ferrari are aiming to close the gap on Mercedes, and the iconic Japanese circuit could play into their hands. While some within Ferrari remain cautious about challenging the German team, the Scuderia have demonstrated that under the right setup, they can compete closely with Mercedes on the track.
Despite Mercedes’ commanding start to the season, Ferrari have shown flashes of competitiveness in both the Australian and Chinese Grands Prix. The Scuderia’s performance indicates that the SF-26 has the potential to trouble Mercedes, especially in sections of the track that suit its aerodynamic strengths and cornering efficiency.
Adding to their optimism, Ferrari plan to reintroduce the halo winglets at the Japanese Grand Prix. These upgrades could provide the car with a key advantage in Suzuka’s challenging corners, particularly in medium-to-high speed sequences. Motorsport pundit Will Buxton has highlighted this factor as a potential game-changer for the Tifosi.
Will Buxton highlights Ferrari’s cornering edge at Suzuka
Speaking on the Up to Speed podcast, Will Buxton suggested that Ferrari could exploit their strength in medium-to-high speed corners to challenge Mercedes more effectively this weekend. He pointed out that while Mercedes remain dominant on the long straights, Ferrari’s performance in cornering could narrow the gap significantly.
Buxton explained that the data from the Shanghai Grand Prix revealed Ferrari’s ability to carry speed through medium and high-speed turns, which he believes will translate well to Suzuka. He predicted that the Japanese circuit’s technical layout could allow the SF-26 to maintain closer proximity to the Mercedes W17 in corners, giving Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton a fighting chance.
According to Buxton, Suzuka’s mix of fast and flowing corners could allow Ferrari to engage in a longer strategic battle with Mercedes, potentially extending beyond the opening laps. He noted that if the Scuderia can execute the right race strategy, they might maintain a sustained fight with the Silver Arrows throughout the Grand Prix.
Buxton predicts Lewis Hamilton could win at Suzuka
Despite recognizing Ferrari’s cornering advantage, Will Buxton expressed confidence that Mercedes remain favourites for the Japanese Grand Prix. He singled out Lewis Hamilton as the likely winner, citing the Briton’s current form and experience at Suzuka.
Buxton highlighted that it would be unwise to ignore Mercedes in any race given their consistent pace and reliability. Nonetheless, he suggested that Hamilton could take the victory, which would mark his first career win at Suzuka since 2018. That previous victory saw Hamilton finish 12 seconds ahead of Valtteri Bottas, his then-Mercedes teammate.
Winning at Suzuka would not only boost Lewis Hamilton’s confidence but also send a strong message about his competitiveness in the 2026 season, especially with Ferrari. For the Tifosi, a closely contested battle with Mercedes combined with the potential for a win from Hamilton could make the Japanese Grand Prix one of the most thrilling races of the season.
With Ferrari bringing aerodynamic upgrades and leveraging Suzuka’s technical corners, the battle between Lewis Hamilton, Charles Leclerc, and Mercedes’ George Russell and Andrea Kimi Antonelli promises to be an intriguing strategic showdown. Fans will be watching closely to see whether Ferrari can capitalize on their cornering advantage or if Mercedes’ straight-line speed will once again dominate the weekend.
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