In a season defined by futility, the Toronto Maple Leafs have found a new way to disappoint, which feels like the most Maple Leaf thing ever… they’re winning at the worst possible time.
After a nine-game losing streak that had fans and scouts in late February and early March wrapping their heads around a lost season but quietly optimistic about lottery odds, Toronto has suddenly strung together two straight victories. The latest was a 4-3 win over the New York Rangers that made it just that much more difficult to secure the spot they need in the draft to make a top-five selection.
As Joshua Kloke detailed in The Athletic, instead of sliding comfortably into the bottom five (where their top-five protected 2026 first-round pick stays in-house and lottery odds improve dramatically), the Leafs are doing the one thing that hurts their future most: playing better hockey.
Of Course The Maple Leafs Are Winning Now
Normally, bad teams tank by losing. The worse the record, the better the draft position. It’s a strategy that makes total sense for this group, particularly given what’s at stake. As Kloke points out:
“The Leafs will pick in the first round of the draft this summer, but only if the pick falls in the top five. If the draft lottery balls fall in a way that sends the Leafs’ pick outside of the top five, the pick will go to the Boston Bruins as a result of the Brandon Carlo trade.”
source – ‘Is the Maple Leafs tank still on? How 2 straight wins affect draft lottery odds’ – Joshua Kloke – The Athletic – 03/26/2026
Every point they earn right now actively damages their chances at a potential franchise-changer. So, of course, the club struggles all season, and when they finally need to lose to up their draft odds or retain their pick, the team starts winning.
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The players, who seemed to be checked out under Craig Berube all year, are now suddenly showing fight, energy, and physicality. It could lead to losing their pick and a false sense that Berube is the right guy for the job. Naturally, one might ask: where was this buy-in all season?
If the Leafs keep scraping out enough results to miss both the playoffs and a high draft pick, it becomes harder to justify firing Brad Treliving or Berube. They’ll point to “progress” and “culture” while the core problems remain unsolved.
It’s the ultimate Leafs twist: if the Maple Leafs keep this up, they’ll be playing too well to get the pick they need or force change at the upper levels.
Can the Maple Leafs Lose to the Blues?
With nine games left, the math is unforgiving. The St. Louis Blues are the next test, and a loss would help. Only the Blues, like the Leafs, aren’t all that good. The Maple Leafs are the early betting favorites. Potentially good news is that the Blues are also winning games, going 7-1-2 in their last 10.
Still, it feels like one of those situations where a loss is expected and would help the “tank,” but Toronto will pull it out.
The Leafs’ goaltending has been too good, and the group too proud, to fully embrace the assumption that they should stink. Maybe it’s a middle finger to management, who secretly want them to lose. Maybe it’s just their competitive spirit.
Whatever it is, I’m not sold it’s just bad luck. It’s exactly what fans should have come to expect from this group: of course, they figure out how not to do the strategic thing, and then find a way to get it wrong.
They can’t make the playoffs. They can’t fully tank. And now, they can’t even lose properly.