For a second straight year, Carlos Alcaraz will miss the Mutua Madrid Open with an injury. Jannik Sinner was also sidelined 12 months ago because of his suspension, but the Italian is back in the field this season and is a massive title favorite. Alexander Zverev, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Ben Shelton, Lorenzo Musetti, and Arthur Fils are among the challengers.
Before main-draw action gets underway on Wednesday, it’s time to break down the second of three clay-court Masters 1000 tournaments.
Mutua Madrid Open
Where: Madrid, Spain
Surface: Clay
Prize money: 8,235,540 Euros
Points: 1,000
Top seed: Jannik Sinner
Defending champion: Casper Ruud
Draw analysis: With Alcaraz sidelined by a wrist issue, the door is open for Sinner to coast to his first Madrid title. But it may not be so easy. The top half of the draw is absolutely stacked, dealing the top-ranked Italian what could be a somewhat difficult path to the final.
Last week’s ATP 500 winners, Shelton in Munich and Fils in Barcelona, find themselves in Sinner’s half. Shelton and Fils are on a collision course for the fourth round, with the winner likely to face Musetti in the quarterfinals and Sinner in the semis. Those guys won’t get caught looking ahead, however, Shelton’s opening match could come against Matteo Berrettini, who famously double-bageled Daniil Medvedev in Monte-Carlo. Fils will potentially go up against Monte-Carlo semifinalist Valentin Vacherot in the third round. Sinner’s road is expected to include Tommy Paul in the fourth round and either Alex de Minaur, Joao Fonseca, or Barcelona runner-up Andrey Rublev in the quarters.
The bottom half is a borderline joke compared to the top. Joining Zverev — the No. 2 seed and two-time champion — are Auger-Aliassime (runner-up in 2024), Alexander Bublik, Daniil Medvedev, and defending champion Casper Ruud. Munich runner-up Flavio Cobolli’s first match could be against Gael Monfils, who is making his final trip to the Caja Magica.
Among the first-round showdowns to watch are Berrettini vs. Raphael Collignon, Tomas Machac vs. Francisco Comesana, Botic van de Zandschulp vs. Alexander Blockx, Terence Atmane vs. Miomir Kecmanovic, Marin Cilic vs. Zizou Bergs, and Fabian Marozsan vs. Ethan Quinn.
Hot: Jannik Sinner, Ben Shelton, Jiri Lehecka, Arthur Fils, Valentin Vacherot, Rafael Jodar, Ethan Quinn, Alexander Blockx, Martin Landaluce, Vit Kopriva
Cold: Daniil Medvedev, Casper Ruud, Karen Khachanov, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Zhizhen Zhang, Lorenzo Sonego, Pablo Carreno Busta, Daniel Altmaier
Quarterfinal predictions: Jannik Sinner over Joao Fonseca, Lorenzo Musetti over Ben Shelton, Felix Auger-Aliassime over Alexander Bublik, and Alexander Zverev over Grigor Dimitrov
Semifinals: Sinner over Musetti and Zverev over Auger-Aliassime
Final: Sinner over Zverev