They are known, now, by many in the analytics crowd, as “apex predators.” Yes, it’s a lift from the animal world. Think orcas or lions or polar bears. They have no natural enemies, because who would be stupid enough to take on a killer whale that has home-ocean advantage?
In the NBA, it refers to the game’s top offensive killers — the players who put immense pressure on defenses, game after game, with their ability to score both in the midrange and behind the 3-point line, along with a proclivity to get to the rim and draw fouls. No matter where they are on the court, the defense shades their way. Their presence opens up driving lanes and creates open looks for teammates. Small guards can certainly score in the NBA, but they have limitations of strength and size. Even superstars such as Nikola Jokić or Giannis Antetokounmpo have to pick their spots on the floor. They don’t rain 3-pointers on you.
Meanwhile, the likes of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Dončić, Anthony Edwards, Kawhi Leonard and Jayson Tatum go wherever they like.
In this year’s draft, which is very deep at the top, two players seem to have that kind of apex potential: BYU forward AJ Dybantsa and Kansas guard Darryn Peterson. It’s why the two have been linked together the last couple of years as their draft day neared.
We looked at Peterson in the first installment of this year’s Draft Confidential. Today, it’s the 19-year-old Dybantsa: born in Boston and raised in nearby Brockton, Mass., but who’s played the last couple of years in Utah, first for Utah Prep in high school, then for the Cougars.
But Dybantsa is only the best-known of multiple forward/wing prospects, one or two of whom should crack the lottery, amid the numerous guards expected to go early in the first round.
The annual reminder: This is not a comprehensive listing of every potential draftee. I don’t want to TL;DR you to death, and I cover other stuff, too. Our guy Sam Vecenie has the exhaustive compilation, as always, in his amazing annual NBA Draft Guide. This should serve as a complementary piece, with raw data from coaches and scouts and executives. I give them anonymity; they give me the truth, good and bad. Sometimes it comes across as harsh in the written word, but most people in this business are neither blindly loyal to players nor hopelessly misanthropic about them. They are trained to see players as ever-evolving, with strengths and weaknesses. The big question is how much a kid is willing to work to get better, and that’s the thing none of them know for sure.
This is the NBA version of what Bruce Feldman does every year in the college football space for us at The Athletic: getting intel from the ground on the top NFL prospects every year, laying it out in pre-draft columns or mock drafts and complementing the annual, insanely encyclopedic summary that is Dane Brugler’s Beast.
(Heights listed are from the official measurements taken of the players at the pre-draft combine in Chicago in May.)
Jaylen Brown 2.0?
He has more than 930,000 followers on IG and almost half a million on TikTok. He goes viral when he goes wild watching the final seconds of the New York Knicks’ improbable Game 4 comeback win over the San Antonio Spurs in the NBA Finals … and when he has no visible on-camera reaction at all. This might matter more if Anicet “AJ” Dybantsa Jr. couldn’t hoop as well as he does.
The BYU freshman led the nation in scoring in his one season in the Wasatch, displaying a rare ability to cook from just about all over the floor and continuing his rise toward stardom in the pros. He is plenty athletic, but his game isn’t based on verticality. He has footwork and is strong enough to take contact and draw fouls; Dybantsa also led the nation in free-throw attempts with 296. At 6-8 1/2, 217 pounds, with a 7-0 1/2-inch wingspan, he has more than enough size and length to translate to the NBA game.
There are questions, though. He wasn’t as impactful defensively at BYU as someone with his physical gifts should have been, and he only shot 33 percent on 3s. That percentage and volume (4.2 per game) will need to increase. But he doesn’t duck the notion of seeking to be great. It’s clear that he wants the smoke that comes with being the No. 1 pick. A lot of NBA people compare the 19-year-old Dybantsa to the Celtics’ Jaylen Brown, who just happens to have a finals MVP award in his possession. If that’s the case, either the Washington Wizards, with the first pick, or the Utah Jazz, picking second, will have a whole different kind of player on their roster.
Why AJ Dybansta is the no. 1 prospect in this year’s NBA Draft
Sam Vecenie
AJ Dybantsa | 6-8 1/2 forward | 19 years old | BYU
Western Conference executive No. 1: I think, if I’m there (in Washington), if you put me on the clock this second, I would take AJ because I think AJ has the mentality that he’s going to force his way into doing whatever he needs to do to be the best that he can be. … He’s about the right stuff. He’s professional. He’s been raised for these kinds of moments. The kid’s not going to fail. He’s going to be successful, and he’s going to be a good player. He’s a two-way player.
When I first saw him in high school … watching him play then, ’cause he had classed up, I believe, he was defending. He was defending in that venue. AJ’s going to be fine defensively. Most of these guys coming out, if they’re a great defender right now, they’re probably not that good of an offensive player. ‘Cause most college coaches are going to play to their offensive guys and try to put them on the weakest guys defensively. I think he’s going to be more than fine. He’s got the length. And he’s got pride. He wants to be great. If people are telling him, “Look, if you want to be an All-Star, you want to be a top player in the league, you have to show you can guard somebody.”
College head coach No. 1: It makes sense, for what (the Wizards) need. They need a wing, a big wing. That dude loves to play basketball. It was so impressive. He was the best player (at the U.S. Under-19 training camp in Colorado last year), and there were a lot of other really good players there. But he didn’t act like it, as far as big-timing people, being a pig. He played the right way. He is so frigging good. He is big, man. That was the thing that shocked me. Like, I’d seen him on the circuit, and I tried to watch him as much as I could. I like to watch good players. When I saw him last summer. … He’s a big dude. Your offense is your defense.
Eastern Conference scout No. 1: AJ could be really, really good. He could be KG with a jump shot. That’s the way I thought of him three years ago when I first laid eyes on him. He has a tenacity about him when he wants to. His senior year of high school, he played like he had a lot of money (coming), and he was cool, and that turned me off. But in the summertime when they were in Turkey (for the 2024 FIBA Under-17 World Cup), (Cameron) Boozer got the MVP award, because it was already preordained. AJ deserved it. Just like last year, (Louisville guard) Mikal Brown Jr. didn’t get it, when he deserved it. When AJ is playing, and he did this year, when he plays hungry, he can be really, really good. AJ’s dad is a constant presence, but from what I know, he’s not a basketball presence. He’s helped him, but he’s not all hands on — probably would pay a trainer.
Eastern Conference executive No. 1: For me, I’m taking AJ No. 1. Wings who are close to 6-10 with an elite first step like that, high-level athlete, can play one through four, defend one through four, get to the foul line at will. He’s getting to the foul line because dudes can’t keep up with him. He does have a little of that Shai (Gilgeous-Alexander), like, pump fake and draw into you. But he can also jump off the rim and dunk it on somebody, one dribble to the rim. With the rules and the NBA space, how much ground you can use to operate, I think AJ’s going to be a real problem. Positional size, just someone you can really build an offense around. And he’s going to be a plus defender with more coaching and when the game slows down for him. The shooting needs to develop a little bit; that’s the one weakness in his game.
(Defensively), I think you’re betting more on the tools than the feel. He doesn’t think the game defensively right now. He’s thinking, I’m the star of the team. If I can make a play with my athleticism defensively, I’ll do it. If not, I’m just gonna wait for the ball to go to the other end of the floor. I think it’s more maturity than anything else. But the physical tools, and the size, and the frame that can get stronger. … His floor is he’ll never be a liability defensively, just because of the physical baseline alone. Will he ever be a stopper? I don’t know. He’s so young, and his frame is just a ball of clay. The athleticism is so unique. It’s more so the game slowing down, where you’ll maybe see an uptick defensively. … Teams will hunt the bad defenders in the playoffs. AJ’s not going to be someone you hunt. You can’t. ‘Cause if you just hunt him, he’s just going to sit down and say “Beat me, then.”
Western Conference executive No. 2: He’s a responsible kid. He’s not ducking from not wanting to be the top player. He carries himself as the best player. He’s running to, “Hey, man — I’m the best player in the league.”
Eastern Conference scout No. 2: He’s showing up for the run every day. In spite of all the s—, all the hoopla, he showed up every day. He still did his thing.
After Dybantsa, a solid group of wings could go anywhere from the late lottery into the mid-20s. The likely next forward after Dybantsa should be Tennessee freshman Nate Ament, who had some top-five grades coming into the season out of high school. He had a solid if unspectacular season in Knoxville, making second-team All-SEC. An ankle injury during conference play slowed him for a few weeks, but he still played in 35 games, averaging almost 30 minutes a night. Ament’s size and shooting potential make him a real prospect at the next level.
Nineteen-year-old Karim López is expecting to be the first Mexican-born player to be taken in the first round of the draft, having excelled for the New Zealand Breakers as part of the Australian National Basketball League’s “Next Stars” program that has pipelined the likes of LaMelo Ball, Josh Giddey and Alex Sarr to the NBA in recent years. Baylor’s Cameron Carr came to Texas after two seasons at Tennessee and led the Bears in scoring (18.9 ppg). Dailyn Swain transferred to Texas after two seasons at Xavier and became a second-team All-SEC wing. Santa Clara’s Allen Graves has been climbing draft boards, looking to become the latest Bronco to break through to the NBA, after Jalen Williams and Brandin Podziemski, despite coming off the bench most of the season. The rumor has Toronto, at 19, circling him. Iowa State’s Joshua Jefferson was a first-team all-Big 12 selection and a second-team all-American, showing true two-way potential. The Knicks and Mavericks have been linked his way.
Nate Ament | 6-9 1/2 forward | 19 years old | Tennessee
College assistant coach No. 1 (his team played Tennessee): He’s definitely difficult to guard. Good length, mobile. He can shoot over the top of you. We wanted to be physical with him. I knew he didn’t like guys getting up into him, pressuring the ball. He’s still a work in progress with the handle. If he has space, he’s going to shoot over top of you. And trying to keep him off the glass. Tennessee did a good job coaching him to really crash the glass much harder. If you give him a free run, he’s getting it. You’ve got to contest (his shot) without fouling, because he draws fouls.
That kid is dynamic. Seeing how he’s progressed the last three years, and going with Rick Barnes, it really toughened him up, and playing in the SEC, I think it was one of the best moves he could have ever made. I questioned his toughness coming out of high school. That changed a lot this year at Tennessee this year, playing in the SEC. It’s a tough league. It’s fouling. You have to be tough in this league, or you can’t play. He took a huge jump in his physicality.
Western Conference scout No. 1: Very much the same body type as Brandon Ingram. Ament took the hard road, which I respect. Ament didn’t have to go play for Rick Barnes. He elected to take the Rick Barnes a— whipping. Rick is old school. I went to Tennessee’s practice. And every year I go to Rick and say, “Thank you for a college practice.” Most college practices today look like pro practices. If you’re in a scrimmage with Rick Barnes, and you turn the ball over, sub yourself out and give me 45 (seconds) on the VersaClimber. I don’t care if it’s Nate Ament or Ja’Kobi Gillespie. Forty-five on the VersaClimber, to remind you: we don’t turn the f—ing ball over. If we re-draft in three or four years, he might be three or four.
Eastern Conference executive No. 2: You may have to wait a little physically. His upside is huge. He’s going to be tall. He’s still growing. He’s going to be between a three and a four because of that. Just needs to get stronger. He averaged 16 a game in the SEC. I’m a fan of his. Physically, he needs to get stronger, but he’s not soft. He had two pretty good injuries (a high ankle sprain and a knee tweak suffered against Alabama in February). But it didn’t shut him down. As he gets stronger, he’ll have the ability to create.
Karim López | 6-8 1/4 forward | 19 years old | NZ Breakers
Western Conference executive No. 3: I give him credit. I think it says a lot about these guys when they can leave home as teenagers and, if not thrive, do reasonably well. As a teenager, he goes to Spain and New Zealand. That league (Australia’s National Basketball League) is hard to play in. It’s an older league, and it’s physical. He was a little overwhelmed his first year, but the second year, he stepped up. He’s 6-9, 220-some (pounds), he’s strong. Not an elite athlete, but good enough. He’s got some ballhandling. His shot, he started really hot and then sort of regressed to the mean; it wasn’t very good down the stretch. Defensive issues. Also, what is his fastball? I don’t know that I can identify a real fastball. He might be a jack of all trades and a master of none, which kind of limits just how valuable you are in the NBA. But I think he’s clearly worthy of a top-20 pick. He’s doing this, and he’s just 19. So that’s in his favor.
Eastern Conference executive No. 3: This kid is not a ball-in-hand guy. He’s going to play off people. He can dribble, pass and shoot. He can make a 3 and make a play against a secondary defense. Kind of got a little too big. Had a little bit of a back issue throughout the year, and when I went and saw him, there was something lingering there. He’s healthy now. Solid player. I see him going late lottery, or 13 through 15. If he gets past 15, 16, it’s going to be a good value pick. He can play with others. You can put him in a game with men and he’ll stay out of the way, but if you put the ball in his hands, he can make a shot. He’ll put his body in front of you (defensively). Initially, he’ll be able to guard threes and fours and put his body in the way. He will give you resistance. He’s not going to let you run through him.
Cameron Carr | 6-4 1/2 wing | 21 years old | Baylor
Western Conference scout No. 2: I think he is a better (Spencer) Dinwiddie, if you will. He can play three positions. Really can score, super athletic, and he can defend. His wingspan. that’s what’s going to get him over the top, and he doesn’t mind defending. He comes from an NBA family (his father, Chris Carr, played six seasons in the league). Knows how to play. Super high IQ. Really played well in Chicago, helped himself. I really like him. I think he’s going to be anywhere from 14 to 18, maybe 13 to 18. Heard he’s doing all right in the workouts, too.
Western Conference scout No. 1: He turned out to be (Baylor’s) best player, but wasn’t ready for the responsibility of being the best player. Didn’t have the leadership. Shot every ball. And because he was the most talented, guys didn’t b—- about it. But they didn’t celebrate his success. He’s still young. … What I see him to be is a guy who will come into the NBA and will have some adjustment issues to work through. My concerns are not about him as a human being. My concerns relate to his translation to the NBA life, the locker room and all the rest. The talent is there. He’s got Zach LaVine type talent. High flier, shoots the s— out of the ball. If you don’t put a lot of burdens on him and just let him go, he’s terrific. The problem is we often burden you with requirements: shot selection, shot discipline, getting other people involved, sharing the ball.
Dailyn Swain | 6-6 1/2 wing | 20 years old | Texas
College assistant coach No. 1 (his team played Texas): He’s a do-it-all (player). Love that kid. He’s going to be really good. He can pass, dribble, shoot. He can take you off the bounce, pull up. He’s got the total package. He was doing everything. We really tried to take away his spin. If he drives, and you cut him off, he will spin. He still did some things that we couldn’t take away. To me, he was one of the best players in the SEC. He can change directions off the bounce, dynamic scorer, but he can also pass it. He improved the 3 a lot from Xavier (from 25 percent in 2024-25 at Xavier to 34 percent last season at Texas).
Western Conference scout No. 2: He’s got a jump shot. But his confidence is so up and down. Probably got one of the best upsides. Can go downhill, he knows how to play, does the right thing. Good size. I liked him when he was at Xavier. I thought he played his best his first year there. I think his best years are ahead of him. He can put it on the floor, he can pass. If he gets a consistent shot, where he doesn’t lose his confidence, it’s on. I think it’s just confidence. He’s so inconsistent. He’d have a good game, then you’d go, OK. Come back, he’d be just OK. Then he’d come back and play a little better, then he’d have another big game.
Allen Graves | 6-7 3/4 forward | 19 years old | Santa Clara
Eastern Conference executive No. 1: It’s like the whole NBA was waiting to see what he would do. Because they were talking about him getting offered $10 million in the NIL market. He was not recruited heavily at all coming out. He redshirted his first year at Santa Clara, and he used that redshirt year to get his body right, get athletically where he needs to be to be a contributor. Then this year, he came in and made the most of his opportunity. They didn’t start him, but he came off the bench and made an immediate impact. He played some five for them, but I think he’s more of a four man. Very smart. He can shoot the ball, which is a premium. Good basketball IQ, quick processor. He has a natural sense of physicality, which bodes well for him to get early minutes in the league.
The defensive end of the floor is where he really makes his mark. His IQ really shows as an off-ball defender, with his ability to read different actions, his instincts. He’s a deflections problem. He makes good reads in passing lanes. When they play him at the five, he hedges ball screens and he disrupts ballhandlers instantly. He has a real edge to him. It seems like he likes to play defense when he’s out there, and I think that’s big.
Eastern Conference executive No. 2: What I do know, I’m not that high on him. Not super athletic. He can make shots, but his stroke is not a good-looking stroke.
Joshua Jefferson | 6-7 3/4 forward | 22 years old | Iowa State
College basketball executive (his team played Iowa State): So underrated. People aren’t going to like him because he’s undersized. He’s, like, a stronger build; he’s more power than he is athletic. But the two things that distinguish him are the passing and his shooting, at his position. I think he averaged like five (4.8) assists a game. … I think he’s really, really good. I definitely think there’s going to be moments where he’ll be athletically overwhelmed, because the league is so athletic and big. But, as great as (Kevin) Love was at UCLA, you had very similar concerns. And Kevin was able to overcome average athleticism and average size. There were times he got destroyed athletically. I think, yes, but I think (Jefferson’s) going to be able to overcome it. Just big, strong, tough, super physical, super smart, and he’s skilled.
Eastern Conference executive No. 2: Not a dynamic athlete, but tough, shoots it. Can get his own shot. Defensively, he might get challenged, but I wouldn’t mind having him.
Arizona freshman Koa Peat had top-10 draft buzz after scoring 30 in his college debut against Florida. That was his high-water mark in scoring for the season, though. On a team loaded with NBA-level talent like Brayden Burries, Jaden Bradley and center Motiejus Krivas (who opted to return to Arizona for next season), Peat got in where he could fit in en route to the Final Four, making third-team All-Big 12. Duke’s Isaiah Evans had a similar situation in Durham, playing with Cameron Boozer, Maliq Brown and Caleb Foster. But the sophomore was an iron man for the Blue Devils, starting all 38 games and becoming deadly off of screens. Connecticut’s Alex Karaban culminated an outstanding college career that included two national championships as part of a last Final Four team, with a penchant for making timely shots in crunch time.
St. John’s forward duo of Dillon Mitchell and Bryce Hopkins were two-way terrors for Rick Pitino. Mitchell made the Big East’s All-Defensive team; Hopkins, a Providence transfer, was second-team All-Big East as a senior. BYU’s Richie Saunders has a lot of NBA supporters, but is coming off a torn ACL suffered in February. Nonetheless, Saunders, who averaged 18 points and 5.8 rebounds for the Cougars before getting hurt, will be drafted. South Florida’s Izaiyah Nelson was first team in the American Athletic Conference and is rising after solid pre-draft workouts with several teams. So, too, is UCLA’s Tyler Bilodeau, who was extremely efficient last season for the Bruins; he was fourth in the Big Ten in effective field-goal percentage, at .609, and fifth in true shooting percentage (.656). Northwestern’s Nick Martinelli (led the Big 10 in scoring the last two seasons) and Vanderbilt sniper Tyler Nickel (40 percent on 3s last season) could definitely hear their names on the second day of the draft as well.
Koa Peat | 6-7 forward | 19 years old | Arizona
College basketball assistant coach No. 2 (his team played Arizona): I’ll be honest; I thought he should have gone back. He was, if they had five starters, he was the last one we talked about. Physical, great frame. But what does he do? He’s not productive. We were fine if they threw it to him in the short roll; we were fine if he shot 3s. We told (our players), just go at him. Works hard, does all the good stuff. I don’t know what his NBA skill is.
Isaiah Evans | 6-5 1/2 wing | 20 years old | Duke
College head coach No. 1 (his team played Duke): Love him. He’s a classic NBA guy. You put him in a role, and he knows what he’s supposed to do. Really quick release. When he was open, extremely reliable. He was the one guy outside of Boozer that could make a pro shot. We were worried about him getting loose and not getting loose early. He’s never going to be the biggest guy on the court, but he’s a confident guy, competitive. The one thing is he can bang shots, and he’s got length. He was supposed to put it down every time, but because of Boozer’s spacing, we weren’t able to totally execute that.
Western Conference scout No. 2: Professional scorer. And, he’s sneaky where he can pass the ball. Everybody thinks he can’t. He’s a lot better than he showed at Duke. You didn’t see him in high school, cause that’s what he did.
Dillon Mitchell | 6-6 3/4 wing | 22 years old | St. John’s
College assistant coach No. 3 (his team played St. John’s): He’s an elite defender and an elite athlete. Runner, jumper. NBA-type athleticism. The knock on him is, how does he shoot? We didn’t guard him. A lot of teams didn’t guard him. But he still found a way to impact the game. Legit size. The way the game is played now, open floor, being able to play in transition, seems like a really good kid. I don’t know what his work ethic is, but I like him a lot. He didn’t shoot a ton (against us); he would just drive it and get to the next action. I don’t know if Rick (Pitin0) told him not to. And obviously, if he gets a running start to the glass, he’s really good on the glass.
Richie Saunders | 6-5 wing | 24 years old | BYU
College basketball executive (his team played BYU): It’s gonna hurt him because he doesn’t have an opportunity to play for everybody. I think he is fantastic. He is so good. What people don’t know, or may not know, is he is as tough as they come. He is so tough. He rebounds both ends. He can shoot it. And it wasn’t just this year; last year, he was fantastic. They had (Kanon) Catchings, who was thought of as a super high-level prospect. But they started playing him less, and playing Richie more. The ball was in his hands. The ACL will move him down the board a little bit, but the fact that he’s 24 was already going to be a challenge.
But someone’s going to draft him. … Jaylen Clark blew out his Achilles, and he was drafted in the second round (by Minnesota, in 2023), and that was an entire year (rehabbing), and he turned out to be a good player. He’s younger, a more athletic profile. But I think Richie’s a more accomplished player than Jaylen was, and somebody took Jaylen.
Alex Karaban | 6-6 3/4 wing | 23 years old | Connecticut
College assistant coach No. 3 (his team played UConn): I don’t know. I always thought he was good. He kicked our butts. But there’s something about him. I think he’s a step slow. I don’t think he’s like (Sam) Hauser. He doesn’t move well laterally. When we played him … we would always just go at him. Maybe his shooting ability trumps that. Danny (Hurley) loves him. He’s going to make some organization win; he’s a winner. Just my opinion. I could be wrong. Is he a guy like a G League guy, like a two-way guy? I don’t know. ‘Cause I think he’s a good player, but I think he’s on that fringe. Like (Baylor) Scheierman, he played with an edge, he’s tough. I don’t see that with Karaban. Is he a small-ball four? Is he a three?
College assistant coach No. 4 (his team played UConn): He can’t guard me or you. That’s what I think his problem will be at the next level: Who’s he guarding? We’re going to pick on him. But he can make a shot.
Izaiyah Nelson | 6-8 1/4 forward | 22 years old | South Florida
College head coach No. 2 (his team played South Florida): His motor and his size were just so different. He’s just so active. A guy that big, that athletic, that played that hard, there’s just not many guys like that. He does it around the basket. He’s not a polished player. He just has a way of willing the ball in the basket. Constant attack mode. Solid free-throw shooter. He’s such a lob threat in our league, and he had a way of finding edges. Dunks, layups, hooks. Bryan (Hodgson, who left South Florida after this past season for the Providence job) gave him a chance to shoot some 3s, and we were cheering every time he did. It’s not broken.
They basically are Alabama 2.0. A lot of screen and throw it to the rim. His catch radius is huge. They’d set him up in some driving situations, and he crashed the boards with reckless abandon. He’s so strong and athletic, he’d keep the ball alive. But running post-up plays, it was not like that. They were No. 1 in our conference defensively with him and (Daimion) Collins. They trapped ball screens a lot, and he was really impressive. He can really slide.
Tyler Bilodeau | 6-7 1/4 forward | 22 years old | UCLA
College head coach No. 3 (his team played UCLA): Bilodeau is a super tough player. Automatic 15-18 feet in the mid range. Good two-way rebounder. Has really improved as a 3-point shooter. Solid defender, needs to continue to improve on his lateral foot speed. Has a high basketball IQ.
Bryce Hopkins | 6-6 wing | 24 years old | St. John’s
College assistant coach No. 3 (his team played St. John’s): I’m a huge fan of his. I actually love that kid. I don’t think they (St. John’s) utilized him the way Providence would have utilized him. Posted him a lot, let him make plays with the ball, because he’s skilled. His 3-ball was a work in progress, but it was getting better. They were encouraging him to shoot more. I think the kid can be really good. I think he’s skilled. I think he can do more than he was allowed to show. What he is at that level — is he a three, a small-ball four? I don’t know. But in terms of his character and his ability, I think he can be really good.