The 2026 Roland-Garros draw is out, with the year’s second Grand Slam getting underway this Sunday in Paris. All 128 men competing in the singles event now know their path to the title – and it’s my job to break that down. Read on for a full, quarter-by-quarter analysis of the men’s French Open draw, with a look at the seeds, dark horses, early matches to catch and final weekend predictions.
Men’s 2026 Roland-Garros draw: Key takeaways
Here are some of the headline stories from the 2026 French Open men’s draw:
- Djokovic and Sinner in opposite sides of the draw
- Comfortable path for Sinner to the quarters
- Tough draw for Djokovic with Mpetshi Perricard, Fonseca early
- Auger-Aliassime, Medvedev, Cobolli in wide-open second quarter
- Jodar, Zverev in same quarter
- Fils vs Wawrinka meet in first-round blockbuster
Men’s French Open draw 2026: Quarter-by-quarter analysis
Quarter one
Seeds
- Jannik Sinner (1)
- Ben Shelton (5)
- Alexander Bublik (9)
- Luciano Darderi (14)
- Frances Tiafoe (19)
- Arthur Rinderknech (22)
- Tallon Griekspoor (29)
- Corentin Moutet (30)
Dark horses
- Stefanos Tsitsipas
- Matteo Berrettini
- Martin Landaluce
Early matches to watch
- Tsitsipas vs Alexandre Muller
Overwhelming favorite Sinner was always going to be relatively comfortable, regardless of where he fell in the draw. However, even by his standards, the Italian has received a favorable draw.
The top seed opens against French wildcard Clement Tabur, then plays the winner of Jacob Fearnley vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo. His third-round opponent is likely to be Corentin Moutet or Martin Landaluce, before either Luciano Darderi or Arthur Rinderknech in the round of 16.
In short, no major speedbumps for Sinner. He avoids any of the volatile, potential-to-redline type players, and has four very manageable match ups to book himself a spot in the quarter-finals. It would be a huge shock if he doesn’t waltz through this section for the loss of one set max.
Lower down in the first quarter, things get more interesting. Shelton is the high seed, with Bublik in the mix too, plus a glut of dangerous unseeded players.
Shelton opens against fiery Spaniard Daniel Merida, with the American struggling for form since winning Munich more than a month ago. He’s got a strong track record of making it deep at majors regardless of form, however, so expect him to navigate his opening rounds.
Potentially waiting for Shelton in the third round is former finalist Tsitsipas, though the Greek will need to survive a niggly first-round clash against Muller first. The Frenchman is riding a six-match losing streak but has played Tsitsipas tight in the past. With the home crowd behind him, I wouldn’t rule out an upset here.
Regardless, I’ve got Shelton scratching his way through to the round of 16, where he’ll face Bublik if seeding holds. The Kazakh has a rough draw though, with wily veteran Jan-Lennard Struff up first, before Denis Shapovalov and then Frances Tiafoe or Hubert Hubert, potentially. Bublik at his best can see off this calibre of opponent, but whether or not he brings his best in Paris is anyone’s guess.
I’ll take him through to the fourth round, but expect Shelton to be the one who emerges for a quarter-final showdown with Sinner. Unfortunately, that’s a head-to-head where the Italian has won the last nine straight, so it’s tough to see an upset happening.
Quarter-final prediction: Sinner to beat Shelton.
Quarter two
Seeds
- Felix Auger-Aliassime (4)
- Daniil Medvedev (6)
- Flavio Cobolli (10)
- Valentin Vacherot (16)
- Learner Tien (18)
- Cameron Norrie (20)
- Francisco Cerundolo (25)
- Brandon Nakashima (31)
Dark horses
- Alejandro Tabilo
- Gael Monfils
Early matches to watch
- Monfils vs Hugo Gaston
- Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier
- Medvedev vs Adam Walton
- Cobolli vs qualifier
Quarter two is as wide open as they come. Each of the top three seeds – Auger-Aliassime, Medvedev and Cobolli – could be out of the tournament this time next week, and it would be no surprise.
Auger-Aliassime is just 7-6 since February and lost first-round here last year (his fourth opening loss at the French Open since 2020). Medvedev owns six first-round exits in Paris, including in 2025, and was double bageled on clay by a player outside the top 50 just six weeks ago. Cobolli is 7-5 in first round matches this season and has never made it past the third round of Roland-Garros.
None of the other seeds in this quarter inspire confidence either. Vacherot has only won two Grand Slam main draw matches in his career, Tien is 6-9 lifetime on clay with no Roland-Garros wins, Norrie is on a three-match losing streak and is just 10-8 at this event overall, Cerundolo is 6-5 lifetime here, and Nakashima is 19-23 on clay across his career.
Someone has to advance though, so who will it be?
I fancy former No 19 Tabilo to come through the top section of this quarter. The Chilean is 22-9 on clay across all levels this year, and has a comfortable opener against Kamil Majchrzak. He’ll likely take on Vacherot in the second round, then Norrie in the third. I’m not tipping Auger-Aliassime to hold seed, so a fourth round against someone like Sebastian Baez or Luca van Assche could be on the cards.
In the lower section, I’ve got Medvedev advancing. The Russian looks to be a different player the last eight months or so, and will sense an opportunity to go deep this year in what is a thin draw without the likes of Carlos Alcaraz, Lorenzo Musetti, Jack Draper and Holger Rune.
He does have a challenging opener against Adam Walton, whose propensity to netrush could well cause Medvedev headaches. However, my bet is on experience and a cool head here, with Medvedev getting past Walton, then likely Alexei Popyrin.
Cerundolo is the big wildcard in this quarter for me. The Argentinian could technically seize this quarter by the scruff of the neck and make the semi – he’s got the weapons and clay pedigree. But he’s just disappointed me too many times in the past and seems determined to self-destruct any time he gets a good opportunity at a major.
I’ve got Medvedev getting past him in the third, then beating Cobolli in the fourth before seeing off Tabilo in the quarters.
Quarter-final prediction: Medvedev to beat Tabilo.
Quarter three
Seeds
- Novak Djokovic (3)
- Alex de Minaur (8)
- Andrey Rublev (11)
- Casper Ruud (15)
- Tomas Martin Etcheverry (23)
- Tommy Paul (24)
- Jakub Mensik (26)
- Joao Fonseca (28)
Dark horses
- Alexander Blockx
- Dino Prizmic
- Ignacio Buse
Early matches to watch
- Djokovic vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
- Rublev vs Buse
- Djokovic vs Fonseca (R3)
The massive question mark hanging over quarter three is what Djokovic’s level will be like.
We’ve only seen the Serbian play four matches since the Australian Open final in January. The first two of these he won, the last two he lost, the most recent of which was his only appearance on clay, losing to world No 79 Prizmic.
We’ll know quickly where Djokovic is at, because the 24-time Grand Slam champ has a challenging draw. He opens against Mpetshi Perricard, who will blast serves and give him little opportunity to build rhythm. His second round will either be against Valentin Royer or a qualifier, which should be his chance at getting some good rally practice. He’ll need it, because waiting in round three will likely be either Fonseca or Prizmic – either of which Djokovic will need to be on his game to beat.
It doesn’t get any easier from there, with Ruud or Paul potentially in the fourth round.
In the upper section of this quarter, De Minaur and Rublev are on a collision course. The former has just begun to grab some form after a deep rut, winning three straight in Hamburg after losing three in a row prior. Rublev, meanwhile, is in strong form, with a run to the Barcelona final and Rome quarters so far this clay swing.
De Minaur has an early test in the up-and-coming Blockx in the second round, before a possible third-round clash against Mensik. Rublev has the in-form Buse and Camilo Ugo Carabelli as his first two opponents most likely, then potentially Tomas Martin Etcheverry. I expect the pair to navigate these early rounds and meet in what will be a mouth-watering round-of-16 matchup, where I’ve got De Minaur squeaking through.
As far as Djokovic goes, all I can draw on is what he’s shown us in recent years. The man consistently seems undercooked coming into Grand Slams, yet makes the final weekend. Until he shows me otherwise, I’ll keep believing that he knows what he’s doing and tip him through to the semis yet again.
Quarter-final prediction: Djokovic to beat De Minaur.
Quarter four
Seeds
- Alexander Zverev (2)
- Taylor Fritz (7)
- Jiri Lehecka (12)
- Karen Khachanov (13)
- Arthur Fils (17)
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (21)
- Rafael Jodar (27)
- Ugo Humbert (32)
Dark horses
- Zizou Bergs
- Stan Wawrinka
Early matches to watch
- Fils vs Wawrinka
- Zverev vs Benjamin Bonzi
- Fritz vs Nishesh Basavareddy
Rounding out the men’s French Open draw is an interesting quarter where injuries could have a heavy influence. Fritz and Zverev are the two highest seeds, but I don’t have either making the quarters.
Fritz has three tough opponents to start with – Basavareddy, then potentially Michelsen and Jodar. The American has played just once since Miami (a loss to Popyrin in Geneva) courtesy of time off to rehab his knee. With this kind of gauntlet on that kind of preparation, I don’t have him advancing.
Many will have Jodar moving through from this section, but I’m not confident the young Spaniard will find immediate success at the Grand Slam level. Yes, he’s been red-hot, and some tennis bookmakers even have him fourth-favorite to win the event. However, the reality is he’s 19 years old and has only played in one major previously. The step up and shift to best-of-five is significant, as will be the pressure on his shoulders. He may gain a win or two, but I don’t have him making the quarters.
Instead, it’s Lehecka who I’m high on making a deep run here. The Czech is up to No 14 in the world and is 17-9 in 2026, with wins over the likes of Tabilo and Musetti en route to the Madrid quarters last month. He’s got Pablo Carreno Busta, before Terence Atmane and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina most likely. Should his body hold up, he’ll have enough to see these guys off, plus whoever emerges from Fritz’s 16th.
In the lower section, I’ve got an inkling we’ll see a Zverev upset. It’s been a decade since the German didn’t make at least the round of 16 in Paris, but there are signs this could be the year. He’s been struggling with a back niggle, and is known to falter under pressure. There will be a big sense of expectation on him to make the final here with bookies pricing him second-favorite and Sinner on the opposite side of the draw.
Bonzi in the first round could be a banana peel – the Frenchman has pulled off his fair share of upsets over the years. A red-lining Tomas Machac or Bergs could do it in the second round too.
However, I think it’s likely that Arthur Fils will be the one to end Zverev’s campaign when they meet in the fourth round. The Frenchman has been in blinding form since returning from injury, going 20-5 since mid-February with wins over five top 20 players. Zverev did beat him in this stretch, but on the big stage, I’d expect Fils to rise to the occasion and win.
My only concern is his body, which caused him to retire in Rome. However, I’m confident that Fils is simply managing his return and pulled out of that match in order to be fully fit for Roland-Garros. I’ve got him getting all the way to the semis here.
Quarter-final prediction: Fils to beat Lehecka.
Final weekend predictions for 2026 Roland-Garros men’s event
- Semi – Djokovic beats Fils
- Semi – Sinner beats Medvedev
- Final – Djokovic beats Sinner
I’m picking Djokovic to win his 25th major in a little over a fortnight’s time, against all odds.
The only reason Djokovic keeps showing up to Grand Slams is because he believes he can win them. If he hadn’t been putting in the work behind the scenes to be match-fit for clay best-of-five, then he wouldn’t be competing in Paris.
So we’ve got to assume that’s the case: he’s fit and ready to go. In that case, the only player who can beat him in this draw at a Grand Slam is Sinner. Equally, he’s the only player who can beat Sinner.
Djokovic has consistently shown that he’s got the ability to dig deep and pull one incredible match out of the hat. In January, he did it, beating Sinner in the Australian Open semis. Last year, he did it, knocking Alcaraz out in the quarters of the same event. His issue has been backing up these performances – it takes too much out of him, and he can’t win his next match.
This time, that performance only has to come in the final. Djokovic can beat the likes of De Minaur and Fils comfortably – that won’t stretch him too much. He’ll enter the final against Sinner with his mental tank still full, and I’m tipping him to stun the world, further cement his legacy as the GOAT, and upset the world No 1 in the final.
Or at least, that narrative is far more interesting than the alternative, which has Sinner extending his 29-match win streak and claiming yet another title. But that’s no fun.
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