2026 Wimbledon Preview | Moo’s Tennis Blog

Top 10 First round matches 🔥

Maya Joint vs. Serena Williams: Serena’s return has been *the* talking point ahead of this year’s Championships. It was the big story of the draw and I was anticipating her name being read out with every chip drawn. I guessed it would be Tamara Korpatsch 🤔. Serena drew Maya Joint which on paper is a favourable draw as Joint has won just one of her last 14 matches and failed to serve out her first round match in Nottingham against Starodubtseva. It’s impossible to know how Serena is going to fare on the singles court but i’m excited by the prospect. I tend to like her chances against an out-of-form opponent who could be overwhelmed by the occasion.

(3) Iga Swiatek vs. Taylor Townsend: Like many of the top ten, it’s hard to know where Swiatek is at right now with just the one match on grass, a three set to loss to Emma Navarro in Bad Homburg. Townsend loves a big stage and will surely relish the opportunity to open on Centre Court against the defending champion. I think this will be a tricky opener for Swiatek.

(31) Donna Vekic vs. Ashlyn Krueger: Two champions during this grass court season will collide in the first round. Vekic won Queens out of the blue as a Lucky Loser. If Vekic’s game was going to click anywhere then it was always going to be on her beloved grass. Krueger dropped down to the 125 level and won in Ilkley. The American player has won 13 matches on the grass including three at Roehampton to qualify for the Wimbledon main draw. I don’t think it matters what level you win at, wins are wins and Krueger will be feeling confident. A 50-50 match.

(32) Katerina Siniakova vs. Zheng Qinwen: A repeat first rounder from Wimbledon 2025 with the tables turned – last year, Zheng was the seeded player and now it’s Siniakova. The Czech player won that match in three sets, 7-5 4-6 6-1. Zheng has played a full grass court season but is yet to really find her feet on this surface. Her serve has looked unstoppable when she can land it in. Interesting to see if the dynamic shifts with Siniakova now the seed and Zheng the underdog. I would guess not.

Caty McNally vs. Elena Gabriela Ruse: A tough first rounder between two players who have been trending upwards on the grass. The winner could have to play Rybakina in the second round so it’s a bummer of a draw. Ruse made quarters of ‘s-Hertogenbosch and semis of Bad Homburg while McNally made quarters of ‘s-Hertogenbosch and Nottingham. I think McNally is due a big win on this surface.

(13) Jasmine Paolini vs. Robin Montgomery: 2024 Wimbledon finalist, Paolini, has struggled with injuries and form all year. Montgomery, on the comeback from wrist surgery, is a perfect nine out of nine on the grass having won ‘s-Hertogenosch and then won three matches at Roehampton to qualify for the main draw. A siezable upset alert.

Emma Navarro vs. Paula Badosa: Two years ago, this was a Slam quarter-final. Both players have struggled with their health and injuries this year. Both players enjoyed big wins during the grass court season – Badosa beat Gauff in Berlin and Navarro beat Swiatek in Bad Homburg. I like Navarro to have a run at Wimby this year.

(8) Elina Svitolina vs. Daria Snigur: Not an easy opener for Svitolina. Snigur is tricky, a game made for the grass and has giant-killing potential too after beating Halep at the US Open in 2022.

Karolina Pliskova vs. Tereza Valentova: An all-Czech first round pitting experience against youth. Pliskova has played some thrilling three setters in recent months and I think this could be another one.

Dayana Yastremska vs. Aoi Ito: Two players with polar opposite games. Yastremska won three games against Maria in Nottingham, a similar type of player to Ito, which doesn’t bode well. Not seen much of Ito this year who hasn’t played much on grass. I’m generally fascinated by this match.

Potential first week match-ups to circle 🤞:

The anticipation is sometimes more exciting than the actual event so i’m always looking ahead in the draw although it’s completely hypothetical. I hope some of these match-ups happen!

(10) Karolina Muchova vs. Bianca Andreescu (R2): Please, please, please! I want to see this on grass.

(5) Mirra Andreeva vs. Barbora Krejcikova (R2): This would be a brutal second rounder for Andreeva who has played just the one match on grass. A fit and healthy Krejcikova can beat anyone on a good day.

Zeynep Sonmez vs. Hanne Vandewinkel (R2): I saw this match in Eastbourne qualifying and it was the best quality match that I watched so would definitely welcome it again.

(29) Alexandra Eala vs. Serena Williams (R2): This would be special. I’m already getting ahead of myself by even contemplating it.

(3) Iga Swiatek vs. Karolina Pliskova (R2): Pliskova has never beaten Swiatek but i’d still be intrigued to see how their games stack up against each other on grass.

(1) Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jelena Ostapenko (R3): Now that Raducanu has pulled out of Wimbledon (😭) this is the mosty likely prospect for the third round although you can never trust Ostapenko. It was Ostapenko who won their last match in Stuttgart last year in straight sets.

(6) Amanda Anisimova vs. (26) Madison Keys (R3): Would be a high-profile match. Keys would be the lower ranked player but likely favoured after her run to the title in Eastbourne.

(9) Linda Noskova vs. (17) Sorana Cirstea (R3): This would be their fifth meeting in 2026 if it happened. Cirstea has won three of four and the matches in Indian Wells and Miami were both excellent matches.

Favourites ⭐

Aryna Sabalenka: It’s been a strange year for Saba because she looked so impressive and dominant through the first three months and has since been unconvincing by her exceptionally high standards. The favourite with the bookmakers but I feel that’s more the ranking and because she has been so consistent at the Slams. Third set bagels in her last two losses to Diana Shnaider (French Open, QF) and Jessica Pegula (Berlin, SF) cannot be ignored. Sabalenka has a tough draw but she’s so good at navigating Slams and hasn’t lost before the quarter-finals at a Slam since 2022. It would still be shocking if Sabalenka didn’t reach the quarters.

Elena Rybakina: Like Sabalenka, started the season in sensational form, but hasn’t been the same player since winning Stuttgart in April. Losses to Boulter and Eala on grass were surprising and then she pulled out of Bad Homburg with injury. The forehand has looked wild of late. Knows what it takes to win Wimbledon and did it that year coming in with poor form so it’s not the be-all and end-all.

Iga Swiatek: Totally clueless because i’m always prepared for the moment when Swiatek will click and go on a tear. It happened on the grass last year. Likely a tough draw in week one and sometimes that can be a good thing. Can’t make my mind up on this one.

Jessica Pegula: The most convincing of the top five on grass and looked great in Berlin before losing out to Noskova in the final. I’d welcome a Peggy deep run but I still have my doubts. I feel there will always be someone in red-hot form who will take the racquet out of her hand, or she’ll have a bad day like at RG. I so want to be wrong.

Mirra Andreeva: It’s been 11 years since someone (naturally, Serena) won the French Open and Wimbledon in the same year. It’s bloody hard to do and I just don’t see Andreeva doing it with this draw. I’d be surprised if Mirra makes second week.

Amanda Anisimova: Appeared out-of-sorts in the quarters at Queens and then withdrew from Berlin. Seemed chill in press so hopefully that is a positive sign. A potential third rounder with Keys looms in the third round.

Coco Gauff: Has never made it past the fourth round at Wimbledon and not won a match on grass this year. Gauff has a favourable draw so the early rounds may give her the opportunity to work her way into the tournament and then who knows?

Elina Svitolina: Pulled out of Bad Homburg with a hip injury which I presume/hope is precautionary. Played three matches on the grass and has reached the semi-finals at Wimbledon twice before. Not a bad draw and has been so consistent this year so I could see Svitolina as a contender for the title.

Ones to watch 👀

Linda Noskova: Played well at Wimbledon last year and won Berlin. Noskova clearly likes grass and is the type of player that could go on a tear and win a Slam.

Karolina Muchova: I say it every year in my predictions – a fit and healthy Muchova is capable of winning a Slam. Won Bad Homburg and brings form on the grass into Wimbledon for the first time in years. I’m getting my hopes up…

Naomi Osaka: Played arguably her best ever tennis on grass in Bad Homburg and looked fantastic. Hope the foot injury picked up in the final does not hold her back. Groaned when she drew Sabalenka in the fourth round again.

Madison Keys: Played a sensational tournament in Eastbourne and solved the problem of Maria in the final with smart, aggressive tactics. We all know what happened the last time Keys won a tournament the week before a Slam…

Upset picks 😱

Robin Montgomery d. (13) Jasmine Paolini

Eva Lys d. (15) Diana Shnaider

Panna Udvardy d. (18) Ekaterina Alexandrova

Jessica Bouzas Maneiro d. (27) Anastasia Potapova

Zeynep Sonmez d. (28) Ann Li

Predictions 🤔

So looks like I went heart over head for this Slam… that never bodes well!

Quarter-final predictions: Sabalenka-Muchova, Pegula-Gauff, Svitolina-Eala and Keys-Rybakina

Final prediction: Muchova d. Keys

Recommended reading 📚

For anyone going to Wimbledon for the first time or planning a trip in the future, I wrote a detailed guide last year on the blog. I will do a 2026 edition to update the ticketing section which gets harder every year.