I know that this game preview is a day early, as the Winnipeg Jets do not play until Thursday….but I have a bunch of teleconferences scheduled for tomorrow, so thought I would get it done while I have time.
In Tuesday’s NHL action, neither the St. Louis Blues nor Seattle Kraken used their game in hand on Winnipeg to gain points, as both dropped their contests to stay behind the Jets in the standings. The Nashville Predators did win their match, so they now have a 4 pt advantage on the True Northers, but have played an extra game.
Tonight’s hockey action features a pair of games to keep an eye on as the San Jose Sharks (1 pt up on WPG) will use their game in hand on the Jets when they host the Edmonton Oilers in a late game, while the Toronto Maple Leafs (2 pts back of WPG) will host the Washington Capitals (could be Alexander Ovechkin’s final game in Canada).
And finally Thursday’s slate of action will feature 28 of the 32 NHL franchises, but none of the games will be more important to us fans than the True Northers’ match….
WPG Jets @ STL Blues
Start Time: 7:00 pm Central – Enterprise Center
Winnipeg (34-31-12) is in 24th place in the NHL with 80 points on the season, scoring 221 Goals For (25th) and allowing 234 Goals Against (10th). Mark Scheifele leads the Jets with 63 assists and 97 points. Kyle Connor is the goal scoring leader with 38 goals, while Gabriel Vilardi is 1 marker back from his first 30 goal campaign.
St. Louis (33-32-12) is tied for the 25th best record in the league with 78 points, scoring 206 Goals For (29th) and allowing 241 Goals Against (tied for 17th). Robert Thomas leads the Blues with 22 goals, 35 assists, & 57 points (has missed 18 games).
Here is how the two clubs’ year-to-date stats compare when you look at the head-to-head data, via ESPN‘s team & goaltender comparison numbers:
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The year to date statistics between the Jets & Blues are very similar all the way across the board, displaying the proof that both franchises have struggled this season. That being said, Winnipeg & St. Louis have found their games recently, as their records over the past 10 contests puts them in the top 10 of the NHL (led by the 9-1-0 Montreal Canadiens). With almost identical records over that span, the Jets (6-3-1) and Blues (6-2-2) have been picking up points regularly since the Olympic break and they will complete their season series with the 4th game in Missouri. To date, Winnipeg has gotten the better of things with 3-1 and 3-2 victories in Manitoba, but St. Louis shut us out 1-0 in their only home game.
Way too early to know who will be available to play on Thursday, but I would expect the True Northers to be without the same 4 players: Elias Salomonsson, Morgan Barron, Gustav Nyquist, & Colin Miller. The latter 3 are skating in non-contact jerseys, while the rookie Swede remains in concussion protocol. According to ESPN, the Blues have no injuries to deal with coming into a contest that decides which squad will end the night higher in the standings.
Here are the line up projections for both clubs via PuckPedia based on the most recent games:
WINNIPEG JETS LINE UP
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ST. LOUIS BLUES LINE UP
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It seems that St. Louis has been mainly riding goalie Joel Hofer in the crease during their hot streak, so I would expect the local guy to get the start. As for Winnipeg, I doubt that we see backup Eric Comrie until the last back-to-back situation of the season, so it will likely be Connor Hellebuyck again.
Also, congratulations to the Manitoba Moose for clinching a spot in the American Hockey League playoffs!! They also set a pair of franchise records in the win that earned the mini-Jets that distinction, as Jaret Anderson-Dolan scored 8 seconds into the game versus the Milwaukee Admirals (record for quickest goal to start a game) and then Isaak Phillips added another at the 1:09 mark (record for fastest 2 goals to start a game).
Manitoba has a rematch with Milwaukee tonight and another newly signed Moose will make his debut. After captaining the Ohio State Buckeyes, forward Davis Burnside, the undrafted free agent signed an AHL contract with the Winnipeg Jets minor league affiliate after putting up 32 points in 37 NCAA contests. With fellow newcomers Lucas Wahlin & Lukas Gustafsson getting their first professional points quickly…will Davis be able to get on the scoresheet tonight?
Go Winnipeg Jets!!!!!
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POST-GAME INFO
Scoring Summary: (courtesy of ESPN)
FINAL SCORE: Winnipeg Jets 3 St. Louis Blues 2
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Game Stats: (courtesy of MoneyPuck)
Expected Goals (all): WPG 2.69 STL 2.61
Expected Goals (5on5): WPG 2.50 STL 1.50
The St. Louis Blues were leading the xG battle until late in the 2nd period when the Winnipeg Jets finally closed a deficit that ranged as high as the opposition having 1.11 more xG’s. After that, the lead changed often in the 3rd period as the Blues tried to push for an equalizer….but the Jets were able to hold them off on both the scoreboard and the stats sheet (though barely).
The True Northers did dominate the scoring opportunities at 5 on 5 though, ending with a +1.0 xG advantage during regular play.
Winnipeg’s top six ended up winning the xG battle, while the bottom sixers were under the break even mark. All three of the Jets’ goals came at 5 on 5 versus St. Louis, but only one of the above lines got involved in those. The Scheifele unit had the distinction of being on the ice for the Blues only marker, but were able to even that up with a goal of their own.
The other two goals for our club came when Connor & Scheifele were reunited with Vilardi for 1:31 and they were able to pile up 0.495 xG’s, as well as an actual goal. The final Jets’ goal was during a 27 second shift with Toews centering Perfetti & Vilardi.
I thought Lambert played very well for the 2nd straight game. The young Finn ended with the 6th highest xG rating of Winnipeg’s forwards and made a few solid defensive plays in the neutral & defensive zones.
Similar to the forwards, only 2 of the 5 goals in the game came against the starting defensive units. In this case, Fleury & Bryson had the 2nd best xG rating on the team but were the only pair on the above list that was on for a Winnipeg goal. While Samberg–Pionk managed to get above 50% xG’s, they did allow St. Louis’ sole even strength goal.
The other two Jets’ markers in the game came during one minute filler shifts as Morrissey skated with different partners, Pionk & Bryson.
Hellebuyck not only ended with a positive GSAE rating in the game, his .909 save percentage has now bumped his year-to-date percentage up to .899. So with 3 or 4 more starts possible, the recent Vezina Trophy winner still has a chance to avoid finishing the year under .900.