A seven-game losing streak to conclude the 2025–26 season has the Toronto Maple Leafs with the 5th-best odds heading into the NHL Draft Lottery. While that still has them more likely (58.2%) to finish outside of the top five than not, it also provides them with an 8.5% chance of the dream scenario: hitting the jackpot and landing the first-overall pick.
The odds obviously aren’t in their favor, but we saw the New York Islanders one year ago leapfrog nine teams to snag Matthew Schaefer first overall despite just a 3.5% chance entering the night. Because of that, Leafs Nation is still holding out hope that the lottery balls fall in their favor on May 5.
A first-overall pick has the potential to change everything in Toronto, and if it’s Gavin McKenna, some believe he could jumpstart a turnaround and possibly be the skilled, playmaking winger Auston Matthews needs moving forward.
“If they win it, do you take him (McKenna) and does he step right in and play? Most 18-year-olds who go first overall step right in and play. He’s had an up-and-down year, really good second half at Penn State, he’s a winger, you know he’s a skilled guy… Well, that will be the expectation: who plays with Matthews in the future, right? Is that your guy and is he your winger you’ve been waiting for since Marner left?”
The 18-year-old McKenna tallied 51 points (15 goals, 36 assists) in 35 games in his first and potentially only season of college hockey with the Penn State Nittany Lions in 2025-26.
As unlikely as it may be, the Maple Leafs have to be fascinated by the thought of being in a position to draft a talent like McKenna. Young players are making as big of an impact as ever in today’s NHL, and there’s no reason to believe he wouldn’t be able to step right into the league and make an impact, especially with superstars like Matthews and William Nylander insulated around him.
Toronto can’t put all of its eggs in that basket, given the slim odds of such a possibility coming to fruition. That said, everyone involved will be watching the lottery extremely closely, because how things play out could ultimately determine everything when it comes to the future direction of the franchise.
Next: Matthew Tkachuk Isn’t Happy About Not Being in the Stanley Cup Playoffs
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