One year after Fernando Mendoza was available at 40-to-1 odds to be the top overall pick — odds that ultimately cashed — a quarterback-heavy class leads the way for the 2027 NFL Draft, with a legacy name sitting atop all big boards.
Arch Manning, the nephew of former top picks Peyton and Eli, returns to Texas and is the +250 favorite at both DraftKings and BetRivers (+180 at FanDuel) to be next year’s top overall draft pick. The Manning name sells itself, but the hype and talent appear to match the bloodline.
“I think Manning is going to stay the favorite,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told The Athletic. “Dante Moore is a quality kid, and CJ Carr had a tremendous season. Those teams are all projected to do well this year, but I don’t think there will be any change before the season starts.”
Oregon’s Moore is the second favorite with odds between +380 and +500 throughout the market, while Carr ranges from +500 to +650. Both, along with Manning, should have their schools in the championship mix again this year with high-profile games that influence NFL front offices.
“Dante Moore is the trendy name with tools, but coming out of that offense, it would take a lot on and off the field to convince a team to pass on Arch,” longtime professional sports bettor and draft specialist Jay Romano said. “I really don’t see anyone making a ‘Golden Tempo’-esque run (Kentucky Derby winner) late to be the first pick.”
Recent history says a QB has been selected first overall eight of the last nine years and is often the default choice. But all drafts involve a few signature wrinkles, especially given the unknown draft order.
Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith is the fourth favorite to go No. 1 with odds around +1000. The Buckeyes are the early national championship favorites, and Smith has easily the lowest Heisman Trophy odds of any non-quarterback. He led the Big Ten in receptions and receiving yards last year, while playing alongside Carnell Tate, who was just drafted fourth overall.
“Jeremiah Smith is seen as a generational prospect at WR who likely would have been the first WR taken in this past draft,” a FanDuel trader explained via email. “If a team were to get the No. 1 pick, who has a young quarterback in place, or all the top quarterbacks have down seasons, we would anticipate him being the best prospect.”
Along those lines, a defensive prospect could also crash the party. Dane Brugler, The Athletic’s NFL Draft expert, projects South Carolina’s Dylan Stewart and Texas’ Colin Simmons as top-seven picks in his 2027 mock draft. They each have around 20-to-1 odds to go first overall.
“Truthfully, a dominant pass rusher is more likely to emerge for the top pick than another quarterback,” Romano said. “If a star QB goes down like we’ve seen recently with Joe Burrow and the Bengals and a surprise team gets the No. 1 pick, then that team could go for a big-time pass rusher — especially when you factor in what they command in the trade market and free agency.”
Plus, in 2004, the San Diego Chargers held the top overall pick, but Eli Manning and his father, Archie, openly criticized the front office and refused to play for the organization. Manning was ultimately drafted first as part of a later trade with the New York Giants, but the same powerful family could play hardball and flex its muscles again.
“In the case of Eli Manning, he was still drafted first overall. We haven’t factored a scenario like that in too much, but if that becomes a possibility as the season progresses, we will adjust accordingly,” the FanDuel trader said.
Performance during the college football season will certainly induce odds adjustments. Last year, after Indiana’s 4-0 start, Mendoza’s odds lowered to +700 at FanDuel. With so many signal-callers in the mix for next year, strong Septembers or deep playoff runs could even widen Manning’s competition.
“I know there is so much hype regarding the eight to 10 quarterbacks in play for round one next year. However, I think a lot of this will sort itself out, and at least half of them won’t be in the conversation,” Romano said. “Whether it’s declining draft stock or the temptation of huge NIL paydays (to return to school), I’d guess only four are taken in the first round.”
Lastly, NFL Draft markets are inherently reactionary and fluid. For example, immediately following an electric performance in Ole Miss’ upset of Georgia in the CFP quarterfinals, quarterback Trinidad Chambliss became this year’s third favorite with +1000 odds after not even being originally posted. He is now returning to Oxford and has 100-to-1 odds at BetRivers to be the 2027 top pick.
“You could’ve had Mendoza at 40-to-1 last year. There are some good payouts out there. Got to get lucky, pick a number, and the guy has to do well,” Avello said. “It only takes one guy to win it.”