The Italian Open continues its Round of 32 on Monday, May 11th. While several big seeds have already fallen, including Novak Djokovic in the second round, this veteran clash offers a look at two players desperate to find their peak form before Roland Garros.
Andrey Rublev (12) vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (21)
Venue: Grand Stand Arena
Scheduled Time: Approx. 13:00 CEST
This is the only all-seeded matchup in the top half of the draw tomorrow. Andrey Rublev arrives in Rome looking to steady the ship after a somewhat inconsistent clay swing. Despite a dip in his ranking to world No. 14 recently, his baseline power remains one of the most punishing on tour. He looked sharp in his opening match, beating Miomir Kecmanovic in straight sets.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is a player who lives for the big stages. He loves the slow, tactical nature of Rome’s red clay and comes into this match fresh off a decent win over Cristian Garin. His season has been up and down though, with a 11-8 record so far. More on Davidovich Fokina’s racquet and gear.
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The Matchup
- Head-to-Head: Rublev leads the series 6-1 total.
- Surface History: While Rublev dominates the overall history, their matches on clay are often much closer. Interestingly, Davidovich Fokina won their most recent meeting on this surface (Barcelona 2025).
The winner will face either Brandon Nakashima or the surging qualifier Nikoloz Basilashvili in the Round of 16.
Predictions and best bets
Rublev is the favorite at bookies at odds 1.69 which is actually a decent odds. He may not have been the most consistent player lately (and he can surely lose his temper) but he’s overall a better player in this matchup (which clearly shows in the H2H as well) and ADF is not in one of his best forms, even though he has a very high “highest” level.
My prediction: Rublev to win and progress to the Round of 16 in Rome. A 2-0 set betting win gives 2.60 (+1.60).