Colts Preview: With Pittman Gone, Downs Enters 2026 as Colts’ Breakout Candidate
Josh Downs was not worse in 2025. The math just worked against him.
Downs finished the season with 58 receptions for 566 yards and four touchdowns on 88 targets across 16 games, a decline from the 72-catch, 803-yard, five-touchdown campaign he put together in 2024. His targets per game dropped from 7.6 to 5.5. The numbers look like regression. The context says otherwise.
The Colts went from running 11 personnel on 74 percent of their offensive snaps in 2023–24 to just 63 percent in 2025, while increasing two-tight-end sets from 24.8 percent to 35.6 percent of snaps. Downs played just 26 snaps in those multi-tight-end groupings all season. Through no fault of his own, he simply had fewer opportunities.
The reason for that shift was Tyler Warren. The 2025 first-round tight end became one of the most productive pass-catching tight ends in the NFL from the moment he entered the lineup, posting 76 receptions for 817 yards and four touchdowns — second on the team in both categories. Warren absorbed the short and intermediate-area targets that had previously flowed to Downs in the slot, compressing a role that had been growing for two straight seasons.
Josh Downs made our list as Dynasty Targets for 2026
For 2026, the calculus changes. The Colts traded Alec Pierce’s fellow perimeter receiver, Michael Pittman Jr., to the Pittsburgh Steelers in March, clearing the most established target-earner from the room outside of Pierce himself, who led the team with 1,003 yards last season and set a career high. Pittman had drawn at least 111 targets in each of his final five seasons in Indianapolis. Those targets now need to go somewhere.
Head coach Shane Steichen said in April that he wants Downs to take more perimeter snaps during the offseason program — a direct acknowledgment that the team underutilized him in 2025 and intends to correct it. GM Chris Ballard echoed that framing, noting the coaching staff is “excited to watch how they use him, move him around, try to get him some more opportunities.”
The Colts made no significant outside additions at wide receiver in free agency or the 2026 draft. With Pittman gone and Adonai Mitchell having been dealt to the New York Jets as part of the Sauce Gardner trade last November, the receiver room beyond Pierce and Downs is thin. Warren’s role in the passing game will only grow, but even accounting for that, Downs enters 2026 as the most logical beneficiary of the available target volume.
The quarterback situation adds a layer of uncertainty. Daniel Jones, who is recovering from a torn right Achilles tendon suffered in December, is expected to be ready for Week 1. When Jones was healthy in 2025, Downs thrived — the slot receiver was one of his most reliable short-to-intermediate targets during the Colts’ 8–2 start. What happens to the offense if Jones is not at full strength is the central risk for every Indianapolis pass-catcher.
Downs enters 2026 on the final year of his rookie contract, adding a layer of motivation that mirrors what we covered in the Baker Mayfield contract-year piece. A full season, a healthy quarterback, and an expanded role represent the clearest path to the breakout the Colts believe is coming.