If you’ve been a Patreon subscriber, then you’ve heard me talk about Ivar Stenberg and the Rangers. Stenberg should be the second overall pick, but the draft lottery may have changed how the draft goes. There’s a distinct possibility that Stenberg doesn’t even go top-three, and though that situation is unlikely, it’s still possible. So how can Ivar Stenberg fall to the Rangers? Simple – it depends on drafting for position and whether San Jose, Vancouver, and Chicago all decide they prefer similar draft value but at a position of need.
It starts with San Jose
Much like how Will predicted how the first five picks will go, the only way Stenberg falls to the Rangers is if the draft goes a very specific way, starting with San Jose. This is rooted in a key decision for the Sharks: Best player available or best defenseman to fill a big need? If they choose the latter, it’s Chase Reid, something I’ve been on since they moved to the 2nd overall pick. If they go best player available, then it’s clearly Stenberg.
The decision for San Jose isn’t an easy one either. They desperately need defensemen, especially puck movers. Chase Reid is the choice by a country mile. However it’s also very hard to turn down some kind of Celebrini, Eklund, Misa, Smith, Stenberg quintet up front. That team would be able to score at will if they get the puck out of their own zone. Tough choice, no wrong choice either.
Will Vancouver prioritize a center?
Since we are talking situations where Ivar Stenberg falls to the Rangers, then we are assuming the Sharks select Reid, meaning Vancouver is next up. The Canucks should take Stenberg here if San Jose takes Reid, but there’s Caleb Malhotra just sitting there. Malhotra is viewed as the best overall center in the draft and the rebuilding Canucks could probably use some center depth. You win down the middle, and most teams know this.
This comes down to center versus wing and what Vancouver truly prefers. If Vancouver views Malhotra as their 1C of the future, or at least a 2C behind Elias Pettersson if he finds his game again, then the Canucks are set with their top six centers. Stenberg would get passed by here too.
If Vancouver wants to go with the more skilled player, even at wing, then it’s Stenberg.
Chicago could galaxy brain the pick
There are many if/then statements when determining if Ivar Stenberg can fall to the Rangers. San Jose and Vancouver both have strong cases to pass on Stenberg if they go for position over best player available. These are at least somewhat plausible. Where we get into the galaxy braining the pick is with Chicago. If Reid goes second and Malhotra third, then Stenberg is the obvious pick.
However this draft is exceptionally deep with defense prospects, whereas the 2027 draft–of which Chicago has three 1st round picks–is more forward/center friendly. With the Blackhawks expected to be bad next year too, could they prioritize a franchise defenseman over a forward? The Hawks a bunch of young defensemen, but none of them are any good. Someone like Keaton Verhoeff screams Kyle Davidson pick.
This is unlikely, but it’s still possible. Verhoeff provides Chicago with something they don’t have, especially if he’s viewed with an Alex Pietrangelo type ceiling.
It’s worth noting Chicago has three 1st round picks in the 2027 draft, which is much heavier on forward skill than this year’s draft, which is heavier with defense skill.
So can Ivar Stenberg fall to the Rangers?
All this comes back to the big question: Can Ivar Stenberg fall to the Rangers? The answer is yes with an if. Yes, he can fall to the Rangers if the Sharks and Blackhawks prioritize a defenseman and Vancouver prefers a cornerstone center. While this is unlikely, it is certainly possible.
What is most likely to happen is Vancouver selects Stenberg and Chicago takes Malhotra or Verhoeff. If Malhotra is there at 5th overall, he’s going to be a Ranger. If Chicago takes Malhotra, then I see the Rangers taking Carson Carels, the best LD on the board who also fills a big position of need.
Can Ivar Stenberg fall to the Rangers? Absolutely. Will he? Probably not. Then again, we didn’t think Gabe Perreault would fall to the Rangers. Hope is the quintessential human delusion, simultaneously the source of your greatest strength, and greatest weakness.