It’s important to note that Alex Smalley is no slouch.
You’ll likely read things before Sunday’s final round about how Smalley is ranked 78th in the world, or comparisons to Philadelphia’s “Rocky,” or even questions about how many years back you’d need to go to find as unlikely of a major championship winner.
None of those remarks is fair to Smalley’s talent or even his current standing in the game.
Anyone who regularly looks at golf statistics has likely known plenty about Smalley for quite some time. He began to make his mark on Tour late in 2022 and into 2023, and some of his ball-striking numbers were impressive. Ever since, Smalley has popped up on some leaderboards and showcased enough skill with his irons to be one of the best players in the world. But his short game has often let him down. In recent weeks, Smalley has been in some of the most solid form on the PGA Tour.
The main thing that has let him down has been dropping down the leaderboard on Sundays when in contention. Now, he’ll need to avoid that in the biggest moment of his career.
Can Smalley stay calm on Sunday?
My biggest memory of Smalley is the 2025 Players Championship. He was one of my picks that week, and he opened the tournament with rounds of 68 and 67. Smalley was briefly tied for the lead on Saturday and firmly in the mix heading into Sunday. After an opening birdie to get within one, he completely imploded and dropped all the way back to T14.
That has been a bit of a theme for Smalley when getting in contention on Sundays. This season alone, he’s 6th on the PGA Tour in first-round scoring average but 41st in final-round scoring.
This will be uncharted territory, still, for the Duke graduate. He’s never won an OWGR-sanctioned event. This is only his fifth major championship, with three of the other four being the last three PGA Championships.
It looked like Smalley might eject himself from the tournament early on Saturday. He made bogey on three of the first four holes and was essentially removed from the broadcast until a late charge that ended with him making birdie on seven of his last 12 holes.
I’m skeptical of his chances of making that turnaround again. It tends to take players some time to adjust to this sort of spotlight. Smalley has been nervy in the past when in contention, and those were usually in smaller tournaments with less fans and less stacked fields.
Now he’ll have many of the world’s best players hunting him down in his first chance at a major championship. Smalley has been described by his coaches as the smartest player they have ever worked with and very much a “thinker.” While that obviously has its positives, overthinking while players like Jon Rahm, Ludvig Aberg, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele and Scottie Scheffler chase you down could be a recipe for disaster.
But he does have one thing going for him. Smalley has a two-shot lead with 18 holes to play on a course that isn’t producing a ton of birdies or a ton of big numbers.
Smalley will need to improve his ball striking on Sunday
There will almost certainly be a regression for Smalley on the greens in the final round.
Credit where it’s due—he has made a nice improvement with the putter in 2026. But I can’t see him continuing to gain more than two shots a round with the flat stick, ranking 3rd in the field. He’ll need to lean more on his ball striking, which is usually the strength of his game. He’s only been a bit better than field average there so far, which is where he could actually make up some of the ground he might lose with the putter.
Good news for Smalley. There is plenty of form to lean back on for that. He’s gained strokes on approach in nine of his last 10 starts, including ranking 4th in the field in SG: Approach in a T7 at Doral with a loaded field.
Today, he was below average in both ball striking categories. With the pressure that will mount on the greens, Smalley absolutely has to find more fairways and greens to make things easy on himself. Otherwise, he’ll likely see crowds flocking to groups ahead of him as some of golf’s best players make a run at a major championship.
I’m expecting one of the game’s elite players to come from behind and win on Sunday, but don’t be surprised at all if the underrated Smalley keeps himself in front and enters that upper echelon.
Top Photo Caption: Alex Smalley has the 54-hole lead at the PGA. (GETTY IMAGES/Carl Recine)