The action at the ATP Hamburg Open continues on day three with a compelling slate of first-round matches. As always, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match on the slate in the Free City, including Felix Auger-Aliassme vs Vit Kopriva. But who will secure their spot in the next round at the Am Rothenbaum?
ATP Hamburg Day 3 Predictions
Flavio Cobolli vs Ignacio Buse
Head-to-head: first meeting
Ignacio Buse arrives in the main draw having come through qualifying with authority, dropping only five games across two matches, a sharp showing that suggests he is in rhythm on the Hamburg clay. The Peruvian’s topspin-heavy game and steady movement make him a credible challenger on the terre battue and he will be hoping for a solid run at the French Open.
Flavio Cobolli, for his part, has been one of the more consistent performers on clay this season, reaching the Munich final and the Madrid semifinals before a disappointing early exit at home in Rome. The Italian has the kind of aggressive baseline game that can overpower opponents when he is clicking, and he knows this court well having lifted the trophy here last year. Buse’s qualifying momentum is real, but Cobolli’s superior level and title-defence motivation give him the edge in what should be a competitive opener.
Prediction: Cobolli in 3
Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov
Head-to-head: first meeting
Hugo Gaston is one of the more unusual operators in the men’s game, a lefty with a slice-heavy, touch-oriented approach that can frustrate opponents who want to grind from the baseline. Clay suits that style, and his career record at ATP level on the surface is notably better than on hard courts.
Karen Khachanov arrives at ATP Hamburg after a solid showing in Rome, where he reached his first Masters 1000 quarterfinal of the year, though his clay tennis can be inconsistent. His powerful serve is less of a weapon on clay, where the slower bounce allows returners more time to get into rallies. Gaston will look to slow everything down and force Khachanov into uncomfortable, extended exchanges.
The Russian is the bigger ball-striker, but Gaston’s ability to disrupt rhythm with variety makes this closer than it might appear. Khachanov should be able to overpower the Frenchman when given clean looks, but Gaston’s clay nous keeps him competitive throughout. Expect this one to go the distance, but Khachanov’s physical edge ultimately sees him through.
Prediction: Khachanov in 2
Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Arthur Gea
Head-to-head: first meeting
Both players came through qualifying to reach this stage, which makes this an interesting match. Neither carries the psychological weight of being a direct entrant. Arthur Gea has been more effective on return over the last six months, creating more pressure on opponents’ second serves than Aleksandar Kovacevic, a meaningful advantage on clay where return games matter enormously.
Gea has been performing better across both the current calendar year and the trailing 12 months, even accounting for the level of opposition Kovacevic has faced on the main tour. The American has the serve-and-groundstroke profile that can be effective on hard courts, but the clay takes away his pace and asks more defensive questions. Gea’s form coming in gives him a slight edge here.
Prediction: Gea in 2
Ben Shelton vs Daniel Altmaier
Head-to-head: first meeting
Ben Shelton got through his first-round match against Marcos Giron in three sets, a win, but not a convincing one that would suggest he has fully found his clay-court footing. After winning his first clay title in Munich, he has struggled for consistency on the surface, losing in the opening round at both Madrid and Rome before that Giron win.
Altmaier is a familiar and reliable presence on red dirt, a German with a positive career record on clay who will also be playing in front of a home crowd. He moves well, constructs points patiently, and is exactly the type of opponent that can expose Shelton’s tendency to fall flat when his first serve is not firing. If Shelton cannot shorten points with his serve, Altmaier has the experience and clay pedigree to grind him down and wait for the errors. The home crowd and surface comfort give the German the edge.
Prediction: Altmaier in 3
Main photo credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images