The main event is finally here. Both tours descend on Paris for two weeks of action at the 2026 French Open, with Roland-Garros hosting the second Grand Slam of the year from May 24 to June 7. It’s the culmination of the clay season, and conditions in Paris should provide the truest test of who’s playing the best tennis on the dirt right now.
I dive into all the latest betting odds and look for value heading into Roland-Garros. Are the favorites worth backing? If so, at what price? And who are the best dark horses to consider? Read on for my French Open value bets this fortnight.
Men’s French Open value bets and tips
- Tsitsipas to reach the round of 16 @ 8.00 (+700)
- Rublev to reach the quarter-finals @ 7.00 (+600)
- Wawrinka to win a set vs Fils @ 1.80 (-125)
First thing’s first: Jannik Sinner being such a dominant favorite in the men’s event does two things to this market. One, it makes betting on the player most likely to win a waste of time – no-one wants a 1.40 (-275) bet. Two, it opens up all sorts of opportunities outside of Sinner for excellent betting value to be had.
That’s where I’m looking heading into the French Open, and I reckon I’ve found some great angles.
Firstly, I’m once again backing Stefanos Tsitsipas. The Greek has disappointed me in the past in this column, however, he’s offering excellent value and has found himself in a manageable section of the draw (RG men’s draw here).
As I outlined in my men’s quarter-by-quarter analysis, the former world No 3 opens against a niggly Alexandre Muller. Navigate that, and he takes on either Tallon Griekspoor or Matteo Arnaldi. Griekspoor is 10-12 this year and just 3-6 on clay across all levels in 2026; Arnaldi isn’t much better at 9-9 this season, with just three tour-level clay wins.
Waiting on the other side in the third round will likely be Ben Shelton. The American won his biggest clay title in Munich last month, but since then, is 1-3 with losses to three players outside the top 50.
Tsitsipas himself has been a tough watch the past two years, falling steeply from his perennial top-five status that he held for much of the previous decade. However, this season, he’s shown signs of rekindling his form, with wins over Taylor Fritz, Daniil Medvedev, Alex de Minaur and Alexander Bublik.
Remember: this is a guy who has a 73% win rate on clay, with fourth-round-or-better runs at Roland-Garros in six of the last seven years, including the final in 2021. Backing him to win three matches for a 8.00 (+700) payout is a bet I’m willing to take.
My second pick is Andrey Rublev to reach the quarter-finals at 7.00 (+600). The Russian has had a strong clay swing – he reached the Barcelona final, beating Mariano Navone, Lorenzo Sonego and Tomas Machac along the way, then made the Rome quarters with straight-set wins over Miomir Kecmanovic and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina before running into Sinner.
Rublev is the 11th seed, drawn in the third quarter alongside Novak Djokovic, De Minaur and Casper Ruud. His path to the quarters likely runs through Ignacio Buse and Camilo Ugo Carabelli in the early rounds, then Tomas Martin Etcheverry in the third round. He’d then face De Minaur in the fourth round – a player he’s beaten comfortably on clay in the past.
Rublev’s heavy forehand is a weapon on this surface, and his mentality seems to have settled after that Barcelona run gave him his first final of 2026. At these odds to make the last eight, I see value.
Finally, expect Stan Wawrinka to win a set against Arthur Fils in their first-round blockbuster. This is Wawrinka’s farewell appearance at Roland-Garros, where he won the title in 2015. The Swiss is 41 and well past his best, but the emotion of the occasion will fuel him.
Fils should win – the 17th seed has been in blinding form, going 20-5 since mid-February – but Wawrinka’s one-handed backhand can produce magic on any given day. I was in the stands when he dug deep and took a set off Taylor Fritz in Melbourne (purely to please the crowd I suspect) and I fancy him to do something similar for the Parisian faithful.
Women’s French Open value bets and tips
- Ostapenko to beat Swiatek (projected R3) @ odds TBC
- Rybakina to reach the semi-finals @ 3.50 (+250)
- Baptiste to beat Krejcikova @ 1.80 (-125)
Aryna Sabalenka is the top seed and around 3.60 (+260), Iga Swiatek is the co-favorite at 3.50 (+250), and both have legitimate cases of winning Roland-Garros 2026. But neither is a bet I’m making. The value lies in the chaos earlier on in the tournament.
My headline pick is Jelena Ostapenko to beat Swiatek in the third round. The Latvian leads their head-to-head 6-0, one of the most puzzling stats in women’s tennis. Swiatek has won four French Opens. She’s one of the greatest clay-court players of all time. And yet she cannot beat Ostapenko.
The reason is style. Swiatek’s game is built on heavy topspin, patience, and suffocating depth. She wants to grind opponents behind the baseline and dictate with her forehand. Ostapenko doesn’t let her. The 2017 Roland-Garros champion hits flat, hits early, and takes the ball on the rise, shortening rallies and denying Swiatek the time to set up her heavy loop.
Their most recent meeting was in Stuttgart in April – on clay – and Ostapenko won 6-3, 3-6, 6-2. Before that: Doha on hard court in February, US Open in 2023, Dubai in 2022, Indian Wells in 2021, Birmingham in 2019. Six matches across four years, three surfaces. Swiatek has never solved it.
It’s not like Swiatek is on the upswing, either. She’s been looking increasingly vulnerable the past 18 months, so if this match happens – and it’s a reasonable if, given Ostapenko’s mercurial form – I’m all over the Latvian at whatever underdog price she’s offered.
My second tip is Elena Rybakina to reach the semi-finals at 3.50 (+250). What’s changed with the Kazakh isn’t her power, which has always been there. It’s the footwork. She’s moving better than at any point in her career, and the result is she can now construct points on clay rather than just blast through them.
She won the Australian Open in January and Stuttgart on clay in April, and her draw (see the women’s draw here) is manageable – Veronika Erjavec first, then likely Mirra Andreeva in the quarters. At these odds, a semi-final appearance for the world No 2 looks like solid value.
Finally, Baptiste against Krejcikova in the first round. Baptiste is the 26th seed and riding confidence after her Madrid run, where she memorably saved six match points to beat Sabalenka and made the semis of a WTA 1000 for the first time. Krejcikova won this tournament in 2021 but has been struggling with injury and is unseeded. Baptiste’s serve – she hit 12 aces against Sabalenka – is a weapon the Czech’s return game will struggle with.
At 1.80 (-125), backing her to get through is a comfortable way to get some early returns betting on the French Open, without having to wait for all our later bets to clear.