It’s been an incredible first 10 days of Roland-Garros 2026, packed full of upsets and epic five-setters. Just eight men remain in the singles draw – and who could have predicted these would be our quarter-finalists? Not me. Read on for my breakdown of the last eight, with predictions for all four men’s quarters, plus a look ahead to the final weekend.
Men’s quarter-final predictions: 2026 French Open
Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi
Odds:
- Berrettini – 1.58 (-172)
- Arnaldi – 2.33 (+133)
Path to QF:
- Berrettini – def. Fucsovics, Rinderknech, Comesana, JM Cerundolo
- Arnaldi – def. Griekspoor, Tsitsipas, Collignon, Tiafoe
Time on court:
- Berrettini – 13h, 11m
- Arnaldi – 17h, 42m
This is a fascinating match up stylistically.
Berrettini is a big first-strike tennis guy. He’s got the booming, flat serve, which he’s been rocketing down at incredible percentages this tournament (91% in vs Cerundolo last round). This, paired with his wicked forehand, make him a classic aggressive, plus-one player. He’s not the best mover, so will certainly be looking to lean on his weapons and keep points short.
Arnaldi, on the other hand, isn’t known for any weapon in particular. However, he’s got insane defense. His effort against Tiafoe was truly mind-boggling – the amount of balls he retrieved that he had no right chasing down was nuts. Clay suits him great, as the pace comes off attacking shots, which only maximizes his ability to hunt shots down.
There are more contrasts between these two compatriots as well. Berrettini has been here before – he’s a former Grand Slam finalist, and this will be his sixth time playing in a major quarter-final. Arnaldi’s never made it past the fourth round, and has only been that far twice.
Then there’s the physical element. Both have spent 13+ hours on court, with both putting in the best part of five hours’ work to get through the third round. However, Berrettini had some respite in the round-of-16 with a straight-sets win over Cerundolo, while Arnaldi played the second-longest match of the tournament, lasting five hours, 26 minutes.
I think this is what it will come down to: experience and legs.
If Arnaldi was fresh I’d be tempted to pick him, as I think his style is an excellent neutralizer to Berrettini’s first-strike tennis on clay. But I just can’t see him sticking at it for another marathon match, not after he’s just done back-to-back five setters. He’ll be thrilled to have made it this far, while Berrettini will be eager to go one better than he did at Wimbledon 2021, and will recognize he won’t get many more chances like this. His experience should help him keep the nerves calm and peel off winners.
Prediction: Berrettini beats Arnaldi in four
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli
Odds:
- Auger-Aliassime – 1.78 (-128)
- Cobolli – 2.00 (+100)
Path to QF:
- Auger-Aliassime – def. Altmaier, Burruchaga, Nakashima, Tabilo
- Cobolli – def. Pellegrino, Wu, Tien, Svajda
Time on court:
- Auger-Aliassime – 13h, 14m
- Cobolli – 9h, 37m
As the betting odds indicate, this quarter-final is a real pick ‘em. Strong arguments can be made for either player, which I’ll outline below.
For Auger-Aliassime, he’s a similar player to Berrettini in terms of his preference for first-strike tennis. He moves a little better than the Italian, but fundamentally has a game built around landing a hefty first serve regularly, then dispatching the return with a brutal forehand. He’s no stranger to deep runs in Grand Slams – this is his fifth major quarter, and he’s made two semis before.
The Canadian had a rough path initially, surviving a five-setter against Altmaier first round then dropping sets across rounds two and three as well. However, he looked mighty sharp in the round-of-16, dispatching Tabilo (my pick to make the quarters pre-tournament) in straight sets. Given that lasted just two hours, I’m not overly concerned about him physically.
Cobolli, on the other hand, has sailed through the draw in Paris. His first three matches were straight-set wins, before last round he dropped a tiebreak to Svajda – still, he’s one of just two guys who have spent less than 10 hours on court this tournament.
Cobolli is a strong clay courter, with incredible speed and natural athleticism that leads to strong defense. He’s not toothless by any stretch of the imagination though – he’s got a forehand that can go toe-to-toe with the best of them. Serve-wise, the Italian is a little underpowered though. He’s also got some experience at this level, having made the quarters at Wimbledon last year.
I see this one coming down to who holds their nerve best. Both are impressive momentum players, but something’s got to budge. On the one hand, it makes sense that it would be Auger-Aliassime, given he’s got the lower margin game. On the other hand, he has his serve to rely on, which is a safer bet.
Bottom line, I’d be surprised if this is one-sided. I expect we’ll see a few ebbs and flows, plenty of momentum changes as each falter under the weight of opportunity. Provided Cobolli can keep his serve mildly competitive, he’s shown me enough in recent weeks that I’m taking his nerves over Auger-Aliassime’s.
Prediction: Cobolli beats Auger-Aliassime in five
Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca
Odds:
- Mensik – 2.66 (+166)
- Fonseca – 1.48 (-208)
Path to QF:
- Mensik – def. Droguet, Navone, De Minaur, Rublev
- Fonseca – def. Pavlovic, Prizmic, Djokovic, Ruud
Time on court:
- Mensik – 13h, 0m
- Fonseca – 14h, 29m
Move aside, Sinner and Alcaraz. The next, next gen is here. That’s slight hyperbole, but still: Fonseca and Mensik have been incredible this tournament.
Fonseca pulled off a Houdini against fellow youngster Prizmic, but that was just a warm up. He then did the same thing against the greatest player the sport has ever seen (that’s Djokovic, just to be clear), and the Serbian wasn’t even playing badly either. Oh, and he chased that down by clinically dispatching two-time finalist Ruud in four of the highest quality sets you’ll see all year.
In many ways this feels like Fonseca’s version of Alcaraz’s US Open 2022 run. The Brazilian is defying all the odds, doing things that make zero sense, just ripping through the draw running on youth and sheer power.
But that’s also what Mensik will be fueled by.
The Czech was quite literally wheeled off the court in a wheelchair after his four-hour, 41-minute epic against Navone in the second round. After dropping his opening set of the third round 6-0, it looked like Mensik’s Roland-Garros was all over. Then he came back from the dead and knocked out back-to-back top-10 regulars in De Minaur and Rublev to book his maiden Grand Slam quarter.
Both have games built around raw power. Mensik’s is more the serve, while Fonseca’s is the forehand. Each have well-rounded games outside of these weapons too, and have shown they have a penchant for the bright lights: Fonseca beating Djokovic and claiming a handful of titles already, Mensik picking up a Masters 1000 last year (also beating the GOAT).
I’m tipping this match comes down to tactical smarts and tenacity. My money is on Fonseca being the more trustworthy pair of hands on this front.
Prediction: Fonseca beats Mensik in four sets
Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev
Odds:
- Jodar – 3.50 (+250)
- Zverev – 1.30 (-333)
Path to QF:
- Jodar – def. Kovacevic, Duckworth, Michelsen, Carreno Busta
- Zverev – def. Bonzi, Machac, Halys, De Jong
Time on court:
- Jodar – 12h, 53m
- Zverev – 9h, 17m
Bookmakers have this the most lop-sided of the men’s quarter-finals at Roland-Garros 2026, but I wouldn’t be dispatching this as a done deal.
Sure, Zverev is quite possibly the best player to have never won a Grand Slam, who’s contesting his 17th Grand Slam quarter, while Jodar is just some kid who was ranked outside the top 600 this time last year.
But Jodar is now closing in on the top 20 in the ATP rankings, and he’s 19-3 on clay in 2026. He’s got a killer forehand, a cool head, and scrambles brilliantly on clay. Zverev is known for botching his chances and choking in majors – and he’ll likely never get a better shot at winning a Grand Slam than this.
Neither player has been particularly tested this French Open, with each moving through weak patches of the draw. Jodar’s had quite a few nerves and as a result has had to come from behind to beat both Michelsen and Carreno Busta, even though he looked very in control by the end of each match. Zverev has had zero drama, winning all four of his matches easily.
Technically, Zverev’s first serve percentage and baseline consistency should be too much for Jodar here. However, there’s certainly a world where the German gets tight and the teen loosens up due to the lack of expectation, which could throw up a surprise result here.
Prediction: Zverev beats Jodar in three sets.
Looking forward to the QF’s of this crazy Roland Garros edition!
For the first time ever, 3 Italian players have reached the quarter’s of the same Grand Slam event.
It’s still Zverev’s to lose. This is his big chance. pic.twitter.com/n2TzJKEIDJ
— Tennisnerd.net (@Tennisnerdnet) June 2, 2026
2026 Men’s French Open final weekend predictions
- Semi – Berrettini beats Cobolli
- Semi – Zverev beats Fonseca
- Final – Zverev beats Berrettini
I didn’t set out to pick Zverev to win the French Open. However, even though everything in me is screaming to pick against him because of his track record of choking under pressure, going match-by-match, I can’t see him blowing this one.
I expect Berrettini to get past Cobolli in the semis. Playing for a Grand Slam final is where experience – or the lack thereof – really comes into play. Berrettini has a cool head on him, and I think his weapons will be more reliable under pressure than Cobolli’s. There’s also the senior-junior psychological dynamic, where Cobolli will be intimidated by the idea of taking on his senior countryman.
Providing Berrettini can avoid going to five against Arnaldi, I’ve got him seeing off Cobolli to make his second major final.
What I can’t see, however, is Fonseca executing yet another upset in the semis against Zverev. Yes, I said this felt like Alcaraz’s 2022 US Open run, but gosh – think of the mental drain that it takes to come back from two sets down twice (once against Djokovic!) then see off a player of Ruud’s caliber, then beat a rival next gen player in Mensik. By the time he comes up against Zverev, as much as I want to believe that Fonseca can dig deep and come up with another stunning upset, I just can’t see it happening. Zverev’s game of baseline grinding and high serve percentage just doesn’t lend to being upset easily, which is what it would take for Fonseca to down him at this stage of the tournament.
That gets us to a Berrettini vs Zverev final. Here, Berrettini’s record vs top-10 players comes into play. It’s ugly: 12-31. Simply put, the Italian doesn’t punch above his weight often. He’s great at overpowering lesser players when he’s healthy, but even when he’s been in full flight, wins over the big names are few are far between.
His body also concerns me more than Zverev’s. If Berrettini gets to the final, chances are he’ll be carrying a few more nicks. Each play a similar style of serve-dominated play, but Zverev’s is simply better, and better on clay. I’ve got the German getting there in four, for his maiden Grand Slam title.