By Peter Abraham — Mark Riedy and I have a podcast together, Speaking of Bikes. As part of our collaboration, we decided to create a report about the trends we saw around bicycles in 2025. Mark and I discussed things we experienced ourselves in our trips around the world. But we also reached out to some of our trusted friends in both the U.S and Europe, so that we could understand what others saw. So here’s the list. As a reminder, Mark and I both have agencies that work with many businesses in outdoor sports, tech and bicycles. That includes some brands that may be mentioned in this report.
Here’s our podcast about the trends, with guest James Huang
We’ve put the trends into six categories: business, eBikes, infrastructure, community, tech and racing.
Business
Trade tariffs have become an unavoidable black cloud over the bike industry — and the scale of the impact is hard to overstate. The U.S. bicycle business is currently squeezed by two different tariff regimes. First, Section 301 tariffs impose a 25% duty on most Chinese-made bicycles, frames, and components, and beginning in 2025, the U.S. will raise tariffs on Chinese e-bikes to 100%, dramatically increasing costs in a market that imports more than $1.8 billion in bikes and parts from China each year. Second, Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum — enacted on national-security grounds — quietly increase the cost of raw materials by 10–25%, raising expenses across everything from frames and wheels to bolts and small hardware. Now the Supreme Court is weighing the legality of the Trump-era 301 tariffs, and if they are upheld, brands already struggling with oversupply, shrinking margins, and slowing demand could face years of elevated costs with no return to pre-tariff economics. For many companies, especially smaller ones, the combined weight of 301 and 232 tariffs isn’t just a headwind — it’s a potential existential threat.
Current State of the Bike Business: Set tariffs aside for a moment — the underlying fundamentals of the bike business are still deeply strained from the post-pandemic collapse in demand. After bicycle imports surged to nearly 18 million units in 2020, they fell to roughly 13 million by 2023, a sharp contraction that left brands with 3–5× more inventory than normal, according to Circana. That glut of unsold bikes has forced heavy discounting and eroded operating margins across the industry. Retail has suffered too: the National Bicycle Dealers Association reports that more than 1,000 U.S. bike shops have closed since 2015, with closures accelerating in the past two years. Many major brands have posted revenue declines of 20–40% year-over-year, and even companies like Trek with historically strong balance sheets have been forced into layoffs, restructuring, or debt refinancing. Layer tariffs on top of this fragile environment and the picture becomes even more precarious. What happens next is uncertain, but it’s increasingly clear that the bike business is likely not returning to the “normal” that existed before 2020 — whatever that was. Meanwhile, Rad Power Bikes, once the largest e-bike brand in the United States with a valuation of $1.7B in 2021, has fallen into near-insolvency amid recalls, lawsuits, and softening demand.
Differentiation: One of the bike industry’s quiet but persistent problems is how little true product differentiation remains. As much as 90% of the world’s carbon frames are produced in just a handful of factories in China and Taiwan, often using manufacturing techniques that have changed only incrementally over the past two decades. Once those frames are finished, most brands build their bikes with the same drivetrains: Shimano, SRAM and Campagnolo together control a huge percentage of the global premium component market, meaning the underlying platforms of many bikes are nearly identical. This has led to a landscape where dozens of brands offer superficially different products that, beneath the paint, perform almost exactly the same. The phrase, ‘It’s hard to find a bad bike,’ is now more true than ever. A 2024 YouGov survey even found that 62% of riders cannot clearly explain the difference between the top ten global bike brands. With consumer confusion increasing and product parity the norm, the market is starting to feel more like a commodity category than a space for innovation; which is exactly why it feels ripe for disruption.
Growth of the Chinese Market: China’s cycling market has become one of the most powerful but least understood forces in the global bike economy. While Western brands emphasize Europe and North America, China has quietly become the world’s largest e-bike market, selling more than 45 million e-bikes in 2023; more than the rest of the world combined. At the same time, its expanding middle class has driven a boom in recreational riding, with participation up 20–30% year-over-year since 2020 (McKinsey). This surge spans far beyond e-bikes: premium road and mountain bikes have become status symbols, and several Western and Asian brands now cite China as their largest or fastest-growing revenue market. We have heard of one large, high-end, carbon fiber wheel brand that sold the majority of their production run for 2025 in China. What makes this growth harder for Western observers to track is China’s closed digital ecosystem. Platforms like Douyin, WeChat, Xiaohongshu, and Bilibili form a “digital wall,” limiting visibility into the scale of engagement. On Douyin, livestream bike sales jumped more than 200% in 2024, with top creators selling thousands of bikes in a single session. Meanwhile, major cities including Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Chengdu are expanding bike infrastructure at a pace that rivals Paris, part of a broader national push toward green mobility.
eBikes
Growth: You can’t deny the global rise of e-bikes — but the story in 2025 is far more complicated than simple growth. On one hand, e-bikes remain the fastest-growing segment of the entire cycling industry, market by 2030 with global sales expected to climb from $41 billion in 2023 to more than $72 billion by 2030. In Europe, e-bikes now account for over 50% of all bicycle sales, transforming daily mobility and commuting patterns across Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, and France. China is even bigger: the country sold over 45 million e-bikes in 2023, more than the rest of the world combined, solidifying its dominance in manufacturing and consumption. Regulations. But despite this explosive global demand, the U.S. e-bike market is under heavy pressure. Imports dropped 28% in 2023 (USITC) as brands worked through oversupply and rising costs. The regulatory environment is also in flux. Beginning in 2025, the U.S. is set to increase tariffs on Chinese e-bikes from 25% to 100%, dramatically reshaping the economics of the category. Layer this on top of already-volatile state and city-level regulations governing e-bike classes, speed limits, and battery standards, and the market feels unsettled at best. Safety concerns have created another headwind. New York City reported a 300% increase in lithium-ion battery fires between 2019 and 2023, turning e-bike safety into a national news story. E-bike accidents are another persistent concern, highlighted in a recent New York Times Magazine cover feature. These issues have contributed to stricter battery regulations, UL- certification requirements, and growing pressure on low-cost e-bike makers whose quality controls may not meet new standards.
Regulations: But despite this explosive global demand, the U.S. e-bike market is under heavy pressure. Imports dropped 28% in 2023 (USITC) as brands worked through oversupply and rising costs. The regulatory environment is also in flux. Beginning in 2025, the U.S. is set to increase tariffs on Chinese e-bikes from 25% to 100%, dramatically reshaping the economics of the category. Layer this on top of already-volatile state and city-level regulations governing e-bike classes, speed limits, and battery= standards, and the market feels unsettled at best.
Safety concerns have created another headwind. New York City reported a 300% increase in lithium-ion battery fires between 2019 and 2023, turning e-bike safety into a national news story. E-bike accidents are another persistent concern, highlighted in a recent New York Times Magazine cover feature. These issues have contributed to stricter battery regulations, UL- certification requirements, and growing pressure on low-cost e-bike makers whose quality controls may not meet new standards.
Infrastructure
Paris used the 2024 Olympics as a forcing function for a broader shift away from cars. Bike use in the city doubled between 2022 and 2023, and since 2005 air pollution has fallen dramatically (with PM2.5 down ~55% and NO₂ down by an amazing ~50%). Paris has also built 1,000+ km of cycling lanes, including hundreds added or made permanent in the run-up to the Games. The result is one of the most visible large-scale urban cycling transformations in the world. Spend any time in Paris and you’ll likely hop on a Vélib’ shareable bike.
London laid the modern groundwork for this strategy around the 2012 Olympics, combining narrative, investment, and visible infrastructure like cycle hire and early cycle superhighways. By 2012, the city logged nearly 600,000 daily bike trips, and that momentum has compounded: in 2024, London recorded ~1.33 million daily cycle journeys, up 26% in the five years since 2019.
The organizing committee for Los Angeles 2028 has shown ambition for increased bicycle usage during the Olympic Games, but this initiative faces uniquely American challenges in the realization of that vision. Metro and regional agencies are planning first- and last-mile access and event-linked mobility upgrades, and voters passed Measure HLA in 2024 with 65.5% support, requiring upgrades to improve safety on 2,500 miles of LA streets. Still, complex governance, a strained city budget, lack of leadership, permitting delays and political resistance threaten timelines.
The lesson here? Olympic legacies aren’t created by plans alone. Without sustained pressure and fast execution, the U.S. risks missing the narrow window when global attention can translate LA into a permanently bike-friendly city.
Bentonville: Anyone who has been paying attention is not surprised to see Bentonville on this list. In the past decade Bentonville, Arkansas has evolved from a quiet company town in a not particularly bike friendly region into a global cycling hub with rapidly expanding infrastructure and bike-focused tourism. The city and its surrounding region now boast nearly 70 miles of interconnected mountain bike trails within the city limits and the entire OZ Trails network in Northwest Arkansas boasts over 550 miles of singletrack and paved paths.
In spring 2025, construction began on the first purpose-built chairlift-served mountain bike park in Northwest Arkansas, slated to offer 20+ miles of gravity trails with a high-speed lift, bike shop, dining, and community spaces. All of which will further cement the region’s reputation as a premier gravity and trail riding destination.
The cycling boom has also brought economic impact: a 2022 economic study found bicycling generated approximately $159 million in regional economic activity from jobs, tourism, and related spending in Northwest Arkansas.
Bentonville isn’t just for riders: major employers and community planning reflect this ethos. The new 350-acre Walmart global headquarters campus aims to be one of the most bike-commuter-friendly workplaces in the U.S., with Walmart targeting 10% of its 15,000+ home-office associates commuting by bike or alternative mobility.
Integrated bike planning is visible citywide — from paved lanes and connected trails under the city’s master bike/pedestrian plan to cycling-focused tourism strategies and frequent events that fuel both community life and visitor growth.
New York City has emerged as one of the most bike-friendly major cities in the United States. As of 2025, the Big Apple has built approximately 1,550 miles of bike lanes, including 550+ protected segments, making it one of the largest urban cycling networks in North America. Importantly, 99% of New Yorkers now live within one mile of a bike lane, dramatically expanding access across all five boroughs.
Ridership has followed infrastructure. Daily bike trips grew from roughly 170,000 in 2005 to 500,000+ by the late 2010s, with continued growth as protected lanes and micromobility options expand. Anyone who has spent time in NYC recently can see the shift: bikes are now a constant presence on streets that were once dominated by vehicular traffic.
A major driver of this change is Citi Bike, the largest bike-share system in America. Launched in 2013 with 6,000 bikes, the system has expanded to nearly 40,000 bikes by late 2025, spread across 2,200+ stations. Roughly two-thirds of all Citi Bike trips are now taken on e-bikes, underscoring how electrification is accelerating adoption and broadening the rider base.
In 2024, Citi Bike recorded 45+ million trips, regularly setting daily and quarterly usage records. The system also delivers measurable environmental benefits, helping avoid an estimated 1.8 million pounds of CO₂ emissions per month by replacing short car trips.
While challenges remain (including safety, enforcement, and equitable distribution of protected lanes), New York’s transformation is undeniable. In just two decades, cycling has gone from a niche mode of transport to a core part of how the city moves, reshaping streets, commuting patterns, and public space at a scale few U.S. cities have matched. With the election of Zohran Mamdani as mayor of New York, it seems like the new administration will continue to support the growth of cycling infrastructure.
The Cycling Community
What we’re seeing isn’t simply bigger group rides, it’s the eventization of the weekly ride. We believe it closely parallels the explosive growth of run clubs. Across the U.S. informal rides are evolving into highly organized, experience-driven gatherings that borrow elements from fondos, centuries, and even bike races, but the best ones do not have the pressure of competition (which is why they are being embraced more than long standing group rides.)
We’ve experienced this firsthand. In Austin, Texas, rides like The Breakfast Club routinely draw hundreds of cyclists by pairing a clear identity with thoughtful execution: defined routes, ride captains, pace groups, brand partners, coffee, food, a strong sense of community and police escorts. Similar formats are now appearing in major American cities, signaling a broader shift in how cyclists want to engage with the sport.
The proof is in the turnout. In Los Angeles alone, separate rides featuring WorldTour superstars Wout van Aert and Mathieu van der Poel each attracted hundreds of riders; not for a race, but for the opportunity to hang with two of the best riders in the sport. Importantly, Mathieu van der Poel didn’t try to set up his own ride, he simply dropped in on a regular LA group ride…he came to the community instead of asking them to come to him.
The underlying trend here is that cyclists increasingly want belonging plus experience, not just dropping people and logging massive miles. As racing participation stagnates in many markets, these curated, social-first rides are becoming the new front door to cycling because they are inclusive, social and repeatable. For brands, cities, and organizers, they represent one of the most powerful grassroots growth engines in the sport today.
The bike bus is one of the best examples of a grassroots cycling movement to emerge in the past decade. At its core, it’s a simple idea: students and families ride to school together in a large, organized group, improving safety, visibility, and community while replacing short car trips with active transportation.
The movement’s most visible evangelist is Sam Balto, a former Portland public school teacher, whose organization Bike Bus World has helped formalize and spread the concept nationally. What began as a local experiment has scaled rapidly. As of 2025, there are 400+ active bike bus communities around the world.
Participation has grown alongside rising concerns about traffic safety and youth health. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control reports that less than 5% of American children now bike or walk to school, down sharply from previous generations, while traffic injuries (many the result of increased speeds of e-motorcycles) remain a leading cause of death for children. Bike buses directly address both issues by increasing safety through numbers and re-normalizing cycling as daily transportation.
Early results are promising. Schools with established bike buses report dozens to hundreds of students riding together on peak days, with some routes growing from a handful of riders to 100+ participants within a single school year. Beyond transportation, organizers consistently cite secondary benefits including improved attendance, stronger parent engagement, and calmer school drop-off zones due to fewer cars.
What makes the bike bus trend especially powerful is its replicability. Unlike major infrastructure projects, bike buses can launch with minimal cost, relying on volunteers, basic route planning, and coordination with schools and local authorities. In an era when large-scale bike infrastructure can take years to deliver, the bike bus shows how culture and community can sometimes move faster than concrete.
Women’s cycling is experiencing meaningful growth at nearly every level of the sport. Participation data across multiple markets show women represent one of the fastest-growing segments of new cyclists, particularly in urban riding, bike share, and organized social rides, where women often account for 40–50% of participants in some cities. At the elite level, the Tour de France Femmes Avec Zwift has exceeded expectations since its relaunch in 2022. Owner ASO has publicly acknowledged that audience growth, media reach, and sponsor interest have outpaced initial forecasts, rapidly establishing the race as a legitimate global destination event rather than a symbolic add-on to the men’s Tour. Television viewership has expanded year-over-year across Europe and internationally, and the race has become a focal point for broader conversations about equity, visibility, and investment in women’s sport.
At the same time, safety remains the single largest constraint on further growth. Multiple studies show that women are significantly more likely than men to cite traffic safety as the primary reason they don’t ride more often, even when access to bikes and fitness levels are similar. Closing this gap will require continued investment in protected infrastructure, safer streets, and visible cultural support. Women’s cycling is reshaping the future of the sport. Yet, sustaining that growth will depend on whether cities, organizers, and brands address the structural barriers that still keep many women off the bike.
That momentum is spilling into participation events. At L’Étape du Tour de France Femmes, 6,000 riders took part, with approximately one-third women (an exceptionally high percentage for a European road cycling event, where female participation has historically hovered closer to 10–15%.) The numbers suggest that when women see elite racing they can identify with, participation follows. In just three years since the first TdFF in 2022, new subscribers on the Zwift platform have gone from 18% women to 23% women.
Community riding is reinforcing this growth. Women-focused clubs and group rides which often emphasize safety, inclusion, and social connection over performance (see above around group rides) are expanding rapidly in North America and Europe. These communities mirror the rise of run clubs serving as low-barrier entry points into cycling culture.
Technology
The evolution of bike fit: people are moving farther forward on their bikes, and zero-setback seat posts are increasingly popular. In the old days, the “fastest” bike fit had you sitting way back and then reaching really far forward for a stretched out position. Now bike fitters try to get riders sitting over the pedals for maximum leverage. Some bike brands are even changing the geometry of their seat tubes to align with this trend.
AI: How could we leave this out? How it impacts bikes is currently mostly with AI-powered coaching programs like FasCat Coaching. Strava recently purchased the Runna run coaching app, which uses AI, as well as The Breakaway cycling coaching app. We expect to see dozens if not hundreds of training apps and programs emerge that use AI and we believe that indoor cycling platforms like Zwift will absolutely integrate AI into the rider experience.
3D Printing: With the enthusiastic reception that the still-in-development No 22 Titanium 3D Printed bike got at both the Made show in Portland and at Rouleur Live in London, this technology is picking up steam. While it’s been under development for many years, 3D Printing is now advanced to the point that entire frames (like the No 22 frame and another from J. Laverack) can now be printed out of titanium or aluminum. Filippo Ganna’s hour record in 2022 was achieved on the first UCI-certified fully 3D Printed bike, first ridden by Dan Bigham. This technology is the beginning of a new innovation cycle for frames, following 30 years of carbon fiber and over 100 years of metal frames before that.
Aero road bikes making a comeback: It used to be that a racer would use a “climbing bike” when they needed the lightest possible frame to get up hills. And then aero bikes were for flatter races where going uphill fast was not a priority. But now aero bikes can get down to the UCI minimum weight, so why not use an aero bike all the time? For example, Tadej Pogačar rode his aero Colnago Y1Rs to win the UCI World Championships in Rwanda on a coursethat featured 5,500 meters of climbing. Factor recently launched ‘The One’ super aero road bike, and we believe industry leaders like Canyon, Specialized and Giant all have new flagship aero bikes set to launch in the near future.
32–inch wheels are quietly entering the conversation, not as a mass-market shift, but as a technical experiment aimed at pushing performance boundaries, particularly in mountain and gravel riding. The appeal of 32-inch wheels is rooted in physics. Larger wheels roll more efficiently over obstacles, maintain momentum more easily, and offer improved stability at speed; advantages already proven in the transition from 26” to 29” wheels on mountain bikes over 20 years ago. Proponents argue that 32” wheels could extend these benefits further, especially for taller riders and high-speed applications like cross-country racing, gravel, and bikepacking. Early prototypes suggest measurable gains in rollover capability and sustained speed on rough terrain, though the real- world advantages remain under evaluation.
We have heard from a number of leading brands that they are testing 32” wheels now and will likely show models using the dimension in late 2026. To us it feels like any company who doesn’t have a 32” wheel hardtail or XC race suspension bike in their line-up in 12 months will be solidly off the back.
Racing
Evolution of gravel racing: The fields are becoming more international, the racing faster and more competitive and the prizes purses larger. In fact, get ready to see more domestique riders in gravel who are hired to support a team leader, like road racing. And the Lifetime Grand Prix has upped its 2026 prize purse to $590,000. While some complain that the “spirit of gravel” is getting left behind, the evolution of the sport was inevitable. Like mountain biking, surfing and snowboarding, all of which started as counterculture sports but are now in the Olympics, gravel racing is following a well worn path to global popularity. Could gravel racing end up in the 2036 Olympics? We wouldn’t bet against it.
Challenging Economics Of Bike Racing: Bike racing is an expensive sport, requiring significant operational support and often hundreds of miles of closed roads. Around the world there’s no business model, outside of the Tour de France and a few other races, that makes road races an ongoing, profitable concern. With limited television broadcast viewership and no stadium ticket sales, the sport is struggling to keep its head above water financially. In the United States, long running events like the Joe Martin Stage Race have been forced to pull the plug due to lack of sponsorship. And recently in Europe, the Tour of Norway, which received significant financial support from the Norwegian government, ceased operating after losing that state investment. And there is a steady stream of pro cycling teams that have gone out of business or been forced to merge, like Lotto and Intermarché in the World Tour this year. We’re not sure if and when these challenges will reverse course, but until the business model for bicycle racing changes, it’s not likely to change in a dramatic fashion.
Women’s development racing is struggling: While women’s cycling overall is growing (see above) at the mass participant level and in the World Tour, the lower levels of the sport are in rough shape. Let’s say you’re a talented 20-year old bike racer in the United States, and you want to get to the World Tour. What’s the path to get there? There isn’t any established route, and with road racing in the US almost gone, young American cyclists need to move to Europe and tenaciously create their own future. The women’s side of the sport needs more financial support and an organized development system.
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