1. The team time trial, a chance to land the first blow
Vingegaard’s first major card could come early. The team time trial looks ideal for Team Visma | Lease a Bike to put time into UAE Team Emirates. On paper, the Dutch squad fields specialists capable of squeezing maximum speed from this collective effort.
While big gaps are unlikely, a margin between 15 and 30 seconds could be highly valuable in such a tight battle. In a duel decided by fine details, any early buffer can become a significant psychological lever.
Starting the Tour ahead of Pogacar would also let Vingegaard race from a more comfortable position. Forcing the Slovenian to chase from the outset could slightly disrupt the recent pattern, where the UAE rider has dictated terms.
Tadej Pogacar will lead UAE Team Emirates – XRG at the Tour de France
2. The individual time trial, ground where he can make gains
The second key is the individual time trial. Historically, it is a setting where Vingegaard has shown his best against Pogacar. The standout example remains the 2023 masterclass, when he opened a commanding gap on his great rival.
It is one of the few terrains where the Dane can aim for direct gains without relying on attacks or race dynamics, although in recent years the non-mountainous time trials have often favoured the Slovenian.
For Vingegaard to have a genuine shot at the overall, he likely needs to emerge from the two time trials with close to a minute in hand. It is not straightforward, but it is more realistic than trying to carve out time on explosive finishes where Pogacar usually excels.
3. Endure in the high mountains and blunt Pogacar’s accelerations
The third, and probably most important, key will be the high mountains. That is where the Tour will truly be decided and where Pogacar has looked clearly superior to the rest over the past two seasons.
Rather than attacking to drop the Slovenian, Vingegaard’s goal should be to endure. He must minimise losses and avoid those moments when Pogacar fires explosive accelerations that open gaps in a few hundred metres. Those stinging moves often inflict huge physical and mental damage on his rivals.
If Vingegaard can stay close on the major climbs and reach the decisive stages with a small cushion from the time trials, the pressure could shift. The Dane has already shown he can manage a three-week race, and any doubts he plants in the UAE leader could open the door to an upset.
Pogacar and Vingegaard will headline the Tour de France
Vingegaard’s calm after winning the Giro d’Italia
Moreover, the fact that Vingegaard has already won the Giro d’Italia before the Tour could help him psychologically. The Dane arrives with a Grand Tour in his pocket and the calm of having ticked off one of the season’s main objectives.
That context lets him approach the French Grand Tour with less pressure than Pogacar, who once again must confirm his status as top favourite. Although the Giro’s accumulated fatigue raises questions, the confidence from a victory of that magnitude can be pivotal in the race’s most delicate moments. It has been the Dane’s year so far: