As Leeds United prepare to host West Ham United in the Premier League at Elland Road, both teams are desperate to improve their fortunes in a tightly contested relegation zone. Leeds, sitting 16th with 8 points, face a West Ham side languishing in 19th with just 4 points. This match could be pivotal for both teams’ survival hopes in the 2025/26 Premier League season. Using the provided statistics, recent form, and the strength of opponents faced in their last five games, we analyze the key metrics to predict the likely outcome, goal probabilities, and betting options such as HT/FT and over/under goals.
Team Statistics and Analysis
Leeds United (LEE)
- Position: 16th (8 points, 2W-2D-4L, 7 GF, 13 GA, -6 GD)
- Last 5 Premier League Matches:
- Burnley (17th) 2-0 Leeds (L)
- Leeds 1-2 Tottenham (6th) (L)
- Leeds 2-2 Bournemouth (3rd) (D)
- Wolverhampton (20th) 1-3 Leeds (W)
- Fulham (15th) 1-0 Leeds (L)
- Goals Scored/Conceded: Leeds have scored 8 goals (0.89 per game) and conceded 14 (1.56 per game) in 9 matches. They scored in 5 of 9 games (56%) and conceded in 7 (78%).
- Shots: Leeds average 14.33 shots per game (129 total), with 27% on target and 68% from inside the box. Their shot accuracy is moderate, but they generate significant attempts.
- Possession and Attacks: Leeds hold 52% average possession, with 4075 total passes (83% accuracy) and 458 dangerous attacks (50.89 per game). This suggests a proactive, attacking style.
- Goals by Time Period: Most goals scored occur between 30’-45’ (57%) and 45’-60’ (29%), while they concede early (average first goal conceded at 14’).
- Disciplinary: Leeds have 0 red cards, 11 yellow cards (1.22 per game), and commit 9.44 fouls per game, indicating a physical but disciplined approach.
- Strength of Opponents: Leeds faced a mix of strong (Tottenham, Bournemouth), average (Fulham), and weak (Burnley, Wolverhampton) teams. Their win against Wolverhampton and draw against Bournemouth are notable, but losses to top teams highlight defensive vulnerabilities.
West Ham United (WHU)
- Position: 19th (4 points, 1W-1D-6L, 6 GF, 18 GA, -12 GD)
- Last 5 Premier League Matches:
- West Ham 0-2 Brentford (13th) (L)
- Arsenal (1st) 2-0 West Ham (L)
- Everton (12th) 1-1 West Ham (D)
- West Ham 1-2 Crystal Palace (8th) (L)
- West Ham 0-3 Tottenham (6th) (L)
- Goals Scored/Conceded: West Ham have scored 8 goals (0.89 per game) and conceded 21 (2.33 per game) in 9 matches. They scored in 5 of 9 games (56%) but conceded in all 9 (100%).
- Shots: West Ham average 9.22 shots per game (83 total), with 37% on target and 73% from inside the box. Their lower shot volume indicates less attacking threat compared to Leeds.
- Possession and Attacks: West Ham have 46% average possession, with 3562 total passes (81% accuracy) and 371 dangerous attacks (41.22 per game). They are less dominant in possession and attacking output.
- Goals by Time Period: West Ham score most goals between 45’-90’ (29% in each of 45’-60’, 60’-75’, 75’-90’), but concede earlier (average first goal conceded at 24’).
- Disciplinary: West Ham have 1 red card, 12 yellow cards (1.33 per game), and commit 10.56 fouls per game, suggesting a slightly more aggressive style.
- Strength of Opponents: West Ham faced strong (Arsenal, Tottenham), average (Crystal Palace, Brentford), and weak (Everton) teams. Their sole win was against Nottingham Forest (18th), but heavy losses to top teams expose defensive frailties.
Head-to-Head Comparison
- Goals Scored: Both teams average 0.89 goals per game, but Leeds have a slight edge in shot volume (14.33 vs 9.22) and dangerous attacks (50.89 vs 41.22).
- Goals Conceded: West Ham’s defense is significantly weaker, conceding 2.33 goals per game compared to Leeds’ 1.56. West Ham have conceded in every game, while Leeds kept 2 clean sheets.
- Possession: Leeds’ 52% possession and higher pass accuracy (83% vs 81%) suggest better control, likely amplified at home.
- Form: Leeds (1W-2D-2L in last 5) have outperformed West Ham (1W-1D-3L), especially at home (1W-2D-1L vs West Ham’s 1W-1D-2L away).
- Opponent Strength: Leeds’ results against strong teams (draw vs Bournemouth, loss to Tottenham) are more impressive than West Ham’s heavy defeats to Arsenal and Tottenham. Leeds’ home form is also stronger than West Ham’s away performances.
Goal Probability and Over/Under Analysis
Based on the last 9 matches:
Leeds United
- Over/Under 1.5: Over 1.5 goals in 6/9 matches (67%). Likely to see at least one goal given their scoring consistency and West Ham’s defensive issues.
- Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 goals in 4/9 matches (44%). Moderate chance of a higher-scoring game, especially at home.
- Over/Under 3.5: Over 3.5 goals in 3/9 matches (33%). Less likely but possible if West Ham’s defense collapses.
- Over/Under 4.5: Not provided directly, but given only 3/9 matches exceeded 3.5 goals, over 4.5 is unlikely.
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS): BTTS occurred in 4/9 matches (56%). Likely given both teams’ scoring records and defensive weaknesses.
West Ham United
- Over/Under 1.5: Over 1.5 goals in 9/9 matches (100%). Almost certain due to their leaky defense.
- Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5 goals in 6/9 matches (67%). High probability given their tendency to concede multiple goals.
- Over/Under 3.5: Over 3.5 goals in 2/9 matches (22%). Less likely but feasible if Leeds exploit their defense.
- Over/Under 4.5: Not provided, but given only 2/9 matches exceeded 3.5 goals, over 4.5 is unlikely.
- BTTS: BTTS occurred in 4/9 matches (56%). Likely, as West Ham score occasionally but concede consistently.
Match Total Goals
- Combining both teams’ stats, over 2.5 goals is probable (55.5% average across both teams’ matches). West Ham’s defensive record (2.33 goals conceded per game) and Leeds’ attacking output at home (1.25 goals per game) suggest a game with at least 2-3 goals.
- Over 3.5 goals is less likely (27.5% average), but Leeds’ shot volume and West Ham’s defensive struggles keep it in play.
HT/FT Analysis
Leeds United
- Home HT/FT: Of 4 home games, Leeds were level at halftime in 3 (75%) and won 1 at full-time (25%). They are likely to be level or leading at halftime, with a chance to secure a win by full-time.
- Average first goal scored at 50’, conceded at 14’. This suggests Leeds may concede early but can respond in the second half.
West Ham United
- Away HT/FT: Of 4 away Premier League games, West Ham were trailing at halftime in 3 (75%) and lost 2 at full-time (50%). They struggle to recover from early deficits.
- Average first goal scored at 55’, conceded at 24’. West Ham are vulnerable early and score later, often in losing efforts.
Prediction: Leeds are likely to lead or draw at halftime (HT: Leeds or Draw). Given their stronger home form and West Ham’s poor away record, Leeds have a good chance of winning at full-time (FT: Leeds).
League Strength and Context
This match is in the Premier League, one of Europe’s top leagues, where competition is fierce. Leeds and West Ham are both in the relegation zone, making this a high-stakes encounter. Leeds’ home advantage at Elland Road, combined with their superior attacking stats and slightly better form, gives them an edge. West Ham’s defensive frailties, especially away, make them vulnerable against a Leeds side that generates more shots and dangerous attacks.
Predicted Outcome
Leeds United’s statistical advantages in shots (14.33 vs 9.22), possession (52% vs 46%), and dangerous attacks (50.89 vs 41.22) suggest they will dominate the game. West Ham’s poor defensive record (2.33 goals conceded per game) and dismal away form (1W-1D-2L) make it difficult for them to withstand Leeds’ pressure. While both teams have scored in 56% of their games, Leeds’ ability to create chances and West Ham’s tendency to concede early (24’) point to a home win.
Score Prediction: Leeds United 2-1 West Ham United
Betting Tips
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 goals (55.5% probability, boosted by West Ham’s defensive issues).
- BTTS: Yes (56% for both teams, likely due to mutual defensive weaknesses).
- HT/FT: Leeds/Draw or Leeds/Leeds (Leeds’ home form and West Ham’s early concessions favor this).
- First Goal: Leeds United (West Ham concede earlier, and Leeds have a stronger attack at home).
Conclusion
Leeds United enter this match as favorites due to their home advantage, superior attacking output, and West Ham’s ongoing defensive struggles. While West Ham have shown flashes of scoring ability, their inability to keep clean sheets and poor away form make an upset unlikely. Expect a competitive match with goals on both sides, but Leeds should capitalize on their chances to secure a crucial victory in their fight against relegation.
Final Prediction: Leeds United to win 2-1, with over 2.5 goals and BTTS highly likely.