Thursday Night Football in Week 15 of the NFL season is an NFC South showdown between the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Despite being in a moribund division, Atlanta has already been eliminated from playoff contention with a 4-9 record. Tampa Bay (7-6) is trying to hold off the Carolina Panthers for the top spot.
Let’s dive into my Falcons vs. Bucs predictions.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers odds
Money line: Falcons +200 / Buccaneers -245
Spread: Falcons +4.5 (-110) / Buccaneers -4.5 (-110)
Total: Over 44.5 (-115) / Under 44.5 (-105)
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers best bet #1: Under 44.5 (-105)
There are no secrets between division rivals, who know exactly what the other one wants to do on offense. That doesn’t automatically result in a low-scoring slog, of course, but the first 2025 head-to-head matchup between these two teams was relatively short on offense (the Bucs went into Atlanta and prevailed 23-20 in Week 1). Since then, both offenses have gotten worse. The Falcons have been forced to turn from Michael Penix Jr. (ACL) to Kirk Cousins under center. Cousins hasn’t been absolutely awful like he was at times last season, but at 37 years old — and with an injury history of his own — he is a below-average quarterback. As for Tampa Bay, Baker Mayfield has been banged up in recent weeks and production has suffered as a result. Head coach Todd Bowles’ team scored at least 25 points in four straight games from Week 3 through Week 6. Since then, it has been limited to 23 points or fewer in six of the past seven contests.
Neither QB can be expected to get much help on Thursday. For the visitors, WR1 Drake London (knee) is questionable and not expected to play. Atlanta’s top threat is RB Bijan Robinson, but the Bucs’ defense is stellar against the run (No. 8 in the NFL at 100.6 yards per game allowed). For Tampa Bay, receiver Mike Evans (collarbone) has not caught a pass since Week 3; receiver Jalen McMillan is out; left tackle Tristan Wirfs (oblique) is questionable. Possibly without several of those guys, Mayfield has to face a revamped Falcons pass rush that ranks third in the league with 43 sacks.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers best player prop bet: Bucky Irving Over 62.5 rushing yards (-110)
With Evans rusty and fellow WR Emeka Egbuka in an alarming slump, Irving may represent Tampa Bay’s best chance for offensive success on Thursday Night Football. Irving has two games under his belt since returning from an injury of his own that sidelined him for two months. The Oregon product rushed for 61 and 55 yards in those two contests (he also scored two touchdowns), but he has exceeded this 62.5 quota three times in six total games this year.
He now faces an Atlanta defense that is far worse against the run (No. 24 at 131.0 ypg allowed) than it is against the pass (No. 9 in the NFL). Irving, who scored a TD in the season opener against the Falcons, also has very good value to find the endzone at +120.