There have been numerous reports putting Mercedes as the favourites for 2026. At least in terms of engine development, the German constructor is overwhelmingly expected to set the standard.
Given their track record, this narrative is not something out of the ordinary. It is also known that Mercedes – in typical fashion – have invested significantly in the upcoming generation of power units.
In a bid to manage these expectations, Toto Wolff insists there is no guarantee the Mercedes engine will be superior.
Perhaps more intriguingly, the Mercedes team principal is weary of his customer teams. Wolff points to the growing threat posed by other teams with the same engine.
Toto Wolff discusses threat from other Mercedes-powered teams in 2026
It is very unusual that customer teams win Formula 1 Championship, at least in recent history. Being a customer is widely seen as a limitation, which is partly why Red Bull took a risk and began an exclusive partnership with Honda in 2019.
This choice was proven correct within a few years, when Red Bull started their era of dominance with Max Verstappen at the wheel with Honda power.
Having said that, it is possible for customers to outperform their suppliers and win titles. McLaren are obvious examples of this, delivering the fastest cars for consecutive seasons with the Mercedes engine.
Of course, the differences between Mercedes, Ferrari and Honda engines have been very minimal since 2022.
This means that engineering excellence, rather than a vastly superior engine, is what gave McLaren the edge in 2024 and 2025.
Still, it must be emphasised that next year’s regulations could generate massive gaps between power units. If Mercedes become the new benchmark, it gives their customer teams a critical advantage.
Speaking in the Beyond The Grid Podcast, Wolff discussed his perspective on ’26:
“Never confident. We are glass half-empty people, never half-full. It starts with the enemy in the house.
“McLaren has been the better team this year with a Mercedes power unit. So if the [2026] power unit would be superior, which we never feel entitled to say so, then you’ve got to beat Williams, McLaren and Alpine.
“As a matter of fact, some of them will have had more development time in the wind tunnel – because they didn’t place very well in the constructors Championship.
“Some will have come with innovations that maybe we haven’t spotted. So you can’t take anything for granted, even if our Mercedes power unit were strongest.
“And on top of that, these rumour mills are always dangerous. Because someone somewhere at another manufacturer will think – ‘we’d like to position you in the favourite role, but we are coming’.
“That’s why we are not being carried away by anything, any gossip that’s being discussed at the hairdresser”
Mercedes take nothing for granted
It would be a mistake to underestimate Mercedes’ technical prowess heading into 2026. Even during their set of regulations since 2014, the Silver Arrows were still third-best overall – with only Red Bull and McLaren enjoying more success during the ground effect era.
Moreover, Mercedes did not have the headache of balancing a title fight in 2025 with the demands of 2026 developments.
This means, unlike McLaren and Red Bull, Wolff’s team could switch their focus to ’26 very early.
Although other teams like Williams also committed to this strategy, Mercedes will back themselves to make the difference in the development race.
At the same time, Toto Wolff is clearly leaving no room for complacency. As previously reported on LWOS, the Honda engine should not be discounted as a potential threat for the Brackley squad.
Both within their own group of customer teams and other external power units, Mercedes will be pushed to the limit if they are to re-assert themselves as the fastest team in F1.
Main photo: Sebastian Kawka (Mercedes Media Archive)