NFL Best Bets
The big news this week is that Philip Rivers is making a comeback with the Colts after almost five years away from the game. I know a lot of us are hoping he gets the start against the Seahawks this week because that would be wildly entertaining. But the angle not getting enough attention is that Rivers could actually pass Ben Roethlisberger on the all-time passing yards list with just two or three solid games. How will Big Ben react to that? Hard to say, but my in-laws are from Pittsburgh, and they swear they saw him out in a cow pasture, firing footballs at a snowman from forty yards out, and breaking news? Maybe, maybe not, but Ben never struck me as the type to sit quietly while Rivers strolls past him in the record book.
Most people don’t use their own models when betting against the spread, but let’s say you do, or you rely on someone else’s. Every so often, your model spits out the same number as the sportsbooks. When that happens, you’re basically looking at a coin flip. If your model makes a game Ram -3.5 and the books also hang Rams -3.5, there’s no real edge to chase, and the bet usually isn’t worth touching. If you’re just itching to make a bet anyway, you can look at how the market has moved. If the line opened at something different but drifted toward your model’s number, you can lean that way since the market and your projection are pointing in the same direction. It still isn’t real value, but with Philip Rivers unretiring, this might not be the week to pretend anyone here is being sensible.
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NFL BEST BETS
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
When the NFL schedule was released earlier this year, fans were drooling at the prospect of watching this divisional rivalry between two Super Bowl favorites. This season hasn’t lived up to expectations for either team so far, but it still has the potential to be a marquee matchup. The Bengals beat the Ravens 32–14 in Baltimore two weeks ago, so the idea of a sweep isn’t far-fetched, especially with this one in Cincinnati. Joe Burrow wasn’t perfect against Buffalo last week, but he still threw for 284 yards and 4 touchdowns, and having Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase both healthy makes this offense dangerous again. Burrow’s ceiling right now is higher than Lamar Jackson’s. Lamar is playing through injuries, his offensive line is banged up, and it shows. His passing numbers have dipped this season, and the Ravens just aren’t finishing drives the same way.
ATS wise, Baltimore has been a mess. They’re 4–9 on the season and 4–6 in games where they’re favored by 2.5 or more. I think the Bengals are a more dangerous team right now, and at minimum, should keep this game within a field goal.
Picks: Bengals +2.5
Washington Commanders at NY Giants
The Giants get a pretty friendly setup here, and it starts with Washington losing Jayden Daniels for the week. Once he was ruled out and Marcus Mariota stepped in, the entire feel of this matchup changed. The Commanders were already in a bad spot offensively, coming off a 31–0 shutout with only 206 yards to show for it, and taking away their starting quarterback, plus Zach Ertz doesn’t exactly steady the ship. This is a team on an eight-game losing streak, struggling to score, and heading out on the road where they’re 1–6 ATS. The Giants, meanwhile, are much better against the spread at home, and they get the added benefit of a bye week to reset and get their rookie quarterback ready for what might be the softest secondary he’ll face all season. Washington ranks near the bottom of the league in pass defense and points allowed, and that’s the kind of defense that can make even a young QB look like a veteran.
Pick: Giants -2.5
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos
Denver sitting at home as an underdog after winning 10 straight is one of those lines that makes you look a couple times just to make sure you read it right. They’re undefeated at Mile High, they’ve got a defense that heats quarterbacks like a cast-iron skillet, and they match up well with a Packers team that historically hasn’t handled Denver or the altitude very well. The Broncos are playing with a good balance on offense, too. Bo Nix has already notched six game-winning drives, they just ran for 152 yards last week, and their pass protection is one of the best in the league. That’s a tough combination to fade in this building.
Denver’s defense ranks near the top of the league in scoring and pressure. Their offense can control the ball, and their streak is built on close, disciplined wins rather than fluky explosions. If this game stays tight, and it should, the Broncos getting points at home is the side that makes the most sense.
Pick: Broncos +2.5