A big step toward stardom – June 29th, 2026
Pete Crow-Armstrong (OF – CHC) – PCA was 0-2 with 3 walks and 2 SBs in the 4-3 win over Milwaukee on Sunday, highlighting one of the reasons that my opinion of him has done a 180 over the past few months. In his first two years in the majors, PCA had a walk rate of under 5%, a chase rate of 41%, and a swing rate of just under 60%. This season, the walk rate rose to 7% in April and has been above 10% in May and June, and the chase rate is down 4% while the swing rate is down 8%. These are major steps for an extremely aggressive hitter, and you’ve seen the massive jump in production in conjunction with it. He appears to be well on his way to another 30/30 season, and this time it’s very likely to come with a helping AVG and OBP because of the improved plate discipline.
Luis Garcia Jr (1B – WAS) – Garcia doubled and homered twice on Sunday, giving the 26 year old homers in 5 of his last 6 games and 11 for the month to go along with 25 RBI. The LA is up for the 3rd straight year, the bat speed for the 2nd (it’s all we have data for), and the EV for the 6th, and all of that is combined with above average contact ability. Sure, the plate discipline remains pretty awful, but it’s the only real weak spot in what is becoming a pretty solid offensive profile. Unfortunately, this appears to be the last year of 2B eligibility in 2026, as Garcia has only played 1B so far this season, but with above average contact and power he should remain a viable option even at the tougher position as we move forward.
Drew Rasmussen (SP – TB) – Rasmussen tossed his 5th straight QS on Sunday, shutting out the D-Backs over 6 innings on 3 hits and a walk, striking out 5. Rasmussen is by no means a dominant pitcher, but he possesses an above average GB rate (48.6%) and EV allowed (87.2) to go along with excellent control and slightly above average bat-missing. As of now, his highest ERA of the past 6 seasons is 2.84, making him one of the most consistently solid starters out there despite the rather pedestrian numbers across the board. He remains underrated to me, finishing as the 41st SP taken this spring….depending on what measure you want to use (WAR, ERA, xFIP, xERA, QS, K/BB) he’s very clearly a top-20 SP and very likely top-15.
Kyle Bradish (SP – BAL) – After a couple of outings against poorer offenses where it looked like the control was coming back, Bradish struggled on Sunday against the Nationals, going just 4 innings and allowing only 1 hit but 4 runs (3 earned) with 5 walks and 2 K’s. Bradish is walking just a hair under 4.5 per 9 so far this season, which is pretty much in keeping with the standard TJ recovery, and the 3.77 ERA is actually a decent amount better than where all of the advanced ERA metrics have him. I’m not extremely high on him for the remainder of 2026 (I feel like he will be as he’s been thus far: a tick above average), but I will almost certainly be targeting him in year 2 removed from the injury in 2027, when the control is likely to improve toward his 2023 level.
Esmerlyn Valdez (OF – PIT) – Valdez singled, doubled, homered, and walked in the 9-4 victory over the Reds on Sunday, giving him homers in each of the past three games as he continues to play almost every day. With Oneil Cruz out for at least another 3 weeks or so it appears, I’d expect Valdez to continue to play nearly every day, and with the level of power that the 22 year old possesses, he is a solid waiver claim despite the obvious contact issues. The bat speed and exit velocity are both well above average, and the plate discipline is as well.
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