Buffalo Sabres
If a professional sports franchise snaps a 15-year playoff drought and it occurs in Western New York, did it really happen? The first round of the NFL Draft takes place on April 23, and the vast majority of the Sabres fan base will be preoccupied with the Bills throughout April. Did the Bills get enough help for Josh Allen? In any event, the Sabres are still in second place, even when they claim the Atlantic Division title.
Are the Sabres’ championship aspirations real, or a mirage? Buffalo finished fourth with 193 goals at 5-on-5, while allowing 156 goals, tied for the eighth-fewest in the NHL. That’s pretty damn good. If you look closer, it may be a mirage. Buffalo’s 5-on-5 production was aided by an unsustainable 1.020 PDO. And hey, who are we to take a run at the Sabres’ luck, since it was virtually non-existent throughout the 2010s! There’s a natural inclination to declare that the Sabres have finally arrived, but they’re propelled by some unsustainable shooting luck and goaltending. When will this Cinderella run come to an end?
Buffalo may have finally arrived, but there should be a real sense of urgency. Hometown hero Alex Tuch could be the highest-priced forward in free agency this summer, and could be walking out the door in search of a massive payday. Although the Sabres have most of their core locked up, this could be as potent as their attack gets, with Tage Thompson as the lone superstar talent up front. Will the Sabres be able to survive the pressure of needing to win immediately, while enjoying the spoils of the postseason for the first time?
Boston Bruins
There has been a lot of digital ink spilled about the Bruins’ re-tool, but they are in many ways, the same team as they were two years ago. David Pastrnak paces the team with 29 goals and 100 points: Boston’s second-leading scorer, Morgan Geekie, registered 39 goals and 65 points, while Pavel Zacha (the true No. 1 centre on this team) posted 30 goals and 65 points. From there onwards, Boston’s offensive production drops off significantly. If Buffalo neutralizes Pastrnak and Geekie, does Boston stand a chance?
Boston is also riding a 1.023 PDO bubble at 5-on-5, and it seems like it could pop at any moment. Jeremy Swayman underwent a resurgent campaign, and it appears the Bruins’ steady goaltending is real this year. Although Swayman could steal a game, the Bruins struggled to generate quality looks, with a 46 percent share of the expected goals at 5-on-5, the fifth-worst total in the NHL, one spot ahead of the Maple Leafs. It doesn’t seem like the Bruins stand much of a chance, against the inexperienced Sabres.