Atletico vs Arsenal Champions League semi-final preview

Arsenal face Atletico Madrid at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano on Wednesday night in the Champions League semi-final first leg, with Mikel Arteta confirming that Eberechi Eze, Bukayo Saka and Riccardo Calafiori are all available despite injury concerns — though Kai Havertz is ruled out, leaving a significant gap at the top of Arteta’s attack for the biggest European night of the club’s season.

The winner of this tie faces either Bayern Munich or holders PSG in the final at the Puskas Arena in Budapest on May 30. Arsenal arrive unbeaten in this season’s Champions League with ten wins and two draws, having topped the League Phase with a perfect eight from eight and beaten Sporting Lisbon 1-0 on aggregate in the quarter-finals.

They also handed Atletico a 4-0 defeat in the League Phase earlier this season, a result that sharpens confidence without being particularly relevant to a knockout context at the Metropolitano. Atletico, meanwhile, beat Barcelona 3-2 on aggregate in the quarters and have already scored 34 Champions League goals this season, their highest tally ever in the competition.

Atletico Madrid team news vs Arsenal

Simeone faces a midfield reshuffle with Pablo Barrios out through a hamstring injury and Jose Gimenez sidelined with a muscle problem. Johnny Cardoso, Rodrigo Mendoza and Marcos Llorente are the candidates to step in alongside Koke in the engine room. Two further players are doubts:

Ademola Lookman carries a muscle concern and David Hancko has an ankle issue, with both assessed before kick-off. Julian Alvarez is also a minor doubt after carrying discomfort and being left as an unused substitute in Saturday’s 3-2 win over Athletic Bilbao in La Liga — though there is hope he can be fit to lead the line. Alexander Sorloth, who scored twice against Bilbao, provides the alternative if Alvarez cannot start.

Atletico Madrid predicted XI: Oblak; Molina, Le Normand, Lenglet, Ruggeri; Cardoso, Koke, Gonzalez, Simeone; Griezmann, Alvarez.

Arsenal team news vs Atletico Madrid

Arteta confirmed on Tuesday that Eze, Saka and Calafiori are all in the squad. Havertz is out after sustaining a muscle injury in the 34th minute of Saturday’s 1-0 win over Newcastle. Mikel Merino and Jurrien Timber remain injured. Martin Zubimendi is being assessed after illness but is expected to be available. Viktor Gyokeres is poised to lead the line in Havertz’s absence, with Saka — making his first start in over a month following his Achilles recovery — on the right wing and Gabriel Martinelli on the left.

Arsenal predicted XI: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie; Odegaard, Zubimendi, Rice; Saka, Gyokeres, Martinelli.

What to expect and our prediction

Arsenal have lost just once in their last 22 Champions League matches and have won five of their last nine two-legged European ties against Spanish opposition. They also have a strong recent record on the road in Europe, losing only once in their last eleven away Champions League fixtures. Atletico’s home record against English clubs is the counterweight: only two defeats in their last eighteen meetings with English sides in Madrid. Both managers will be wary of conceding a decisive advantage before the second leg at the Emirates.

Havertz’s absence is a real problem. Gyokeres has had a deeply disappointing first season at Arsenal and has not demonstrated the pressing quality and link-up play Arteta needs from that role. Atletico’s defensive block will be familiar with how to handle a more conventional striker, whereas Havertz’s movement and intelligence in tight spaces made him genuinely difficult to plan for. Arsenal’s best hope is that Saka’s return brings the directness and unpredictability to bypass an Atletico defensive unit that is still formidable even without Gimenez and Barrios. A hard-fought draw feels like the most likely outcome.

Prediction: Atletico Madrid 1-1 Arsenal.