The ATP 500 Barcelona Round of 16 on April 16 features several strong favourites with solid matchups on paper. Andrey Rublev and Lorenzo Musetti are both expected to control their matches comfortably, while Arthur Fils’ superior clay-court ability gives him a clear edge over Brandon Nakashima.
ATP 500 Barcelona 1/8-Finals
Sonego – Rublev: 16.04.2026 13:30 CEST
H2H: 2-4
Lorenzo Sonego has won three of his last five matches. This is his opening clay tournament of the season. This week in Barcelona, the Italian defeated Martinez in three sets after playing for almost three hours.
Andrey Rublev has won three of his last five matches. This week in Barcelona, Rublev defeated Navone in the opening match in straight sets. Last season in Barcelona, the Russian lost to Davidovich Fokina in the second round in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Rublev is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He played well against a tricky opponent in the opening round. On the other hand, Sonego had a tough match after being injured for almost three months. We expect Rublev to dominate the rallies.
That being said, Rublev winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Andrey Rublev winning 2-0 @1.83 @bet365
Moutet – Musetti: 16.04.2026 16:00 CEST
H2H: 0-2
Corentin Moutet has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Monte Carlo, Moutet lost to Ruud in the second round in straight sets. This week in Barcelona, the Frenchman defeated Buse in the opening round in straight sets.
Lorenzo Musetti has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Monte Carlo, Musetti lost in the opening match against Vacherot in straight sets. The Italian defeated Landaluce in the opening match here in Barcelona in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Musetti is the clear favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He leads 2-0 in head-to-head meetings against Moutet. Musetti won both meetings in straight sets easily. We expect a similar outcome tomorrow.
That being said, Musetti covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Lorenzo Musetti -4.5 games handicap @1.91 @bet365
Fils – Nakashima: 16.04.2026 19:30 CEST
H2H: 1-2
Arthur Fils has won four of his last five matches. This week in Barcelona, Fils defeated Atmane in the opening round in three tight sets after saving two match points in the deciding set. Last season in Barcelona, the Frenchman lost to Alcaraz in the semifinals in straight sets.
Brandon Nakashima has lost three of his last five matches. Nakashima defeated J.M Cerundolo in the opening match in straight sets. Last season in Barcelona, the American lost to Martinez in the opening round in three sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Fils is the clear favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He is a way better clay-court player than Nakashima. We expect him to dominate the rallies.
That being said, Fils covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Arthur Fils -3.5 games handicap @1.73 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports