We’re heading into the last four at the Italian Open. Today, Friday, May 15, 2026, the Foro Italico hosts a semi-final Friday featuring two in-form Italians, and it should be entertaining matches. Below previews and our betting predictions for Sinner vs Medvedev and Darderi vs Ruud.
Casper Ruud vs. Luciano Darderi
Venue: Campo Centrale
Scheduled Time: Not before 15:30 CEST
This is an exciting matchup for the Rome fans. Luciano Darderi is playing the tennis of his life, having already saved four match points during this tournament – including a miracle escape vs Alexander Zverev. The Italian then battled an in-form Rafael Jodar for over three hours late on Wednesday. Now sitting at a career-high live ranking of No. 16, Darderi’s recent clay game and emotional connection with the crowd have made him the “people’s champion” this fortnight.
He faces Casper Ruud, a three-time Grand Slam finalist who is finally silencing critics of his 2026 form. Ruud has been clinical, dropping only one set all week (to Karen Khachanov). While he is the lower seed due to a ranking dip earlier this year, his high level game on red clay is undisputed.
- Head-to-Head: First-ever meeting.
Predictions
Ruud is 0-3 in previous Rome semi-finals and will be desperate to break that curse. He is the more experienced on the biggest stages and will be prepared for a long match if that’s needed. The Norwegian enters the match as clear odds favorite but I think we will see a tough three set battle. Ruud to progress to the final after a 2-1 win in the semi’s.
Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev
Venue: Campo Centrale
Scheduled Time: Not before 19:00 CEST
The main event features the most dominant force in modern tennis right now. Jannik Sinner is currently on a 32-match winning streak at the Masters 1000 level, a new all-time record. After dismantling Andrey Rublev in the quarters, he is now just two wins away from completing the “Career Golden Masters” (winning all nine Masters 1000 titles).
Daniil Medvedev, the 2023 Rome champion, is the last man standing between Sinner and the final. Medvedev had to fight hard to get here, surviving a tough three-set battle against lucky loser Martin Landaluce. While Medvedev is a former champion here, he has struggled to find his “clay legs” this season and faces a psychological mountain today.
- Head-to-Head: Sinner leads 9-7. But… Sinner has won 9 of their last 10 meetings.
Predictions
This is actually their first-ever meeting on clay. Sinner’s ability to take the ball early and dictate play usually neutralises Medvedev’s defensive style. Medvedev will need to serve impeccably and hope Sinner’s recent heavy workload finally shows some physical fatigue. Looking at the level of Sinner’s intensity, consistency, and also his serve lately, he should win this in two sets and progress to the final.