Blue Jays need Vlad Guerrero Jr. to snap to it in second quarter

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Any discussion of the state of the Blue Jays one quarter into a lacklustre season has to start with the absent impact of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

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Where the season goes from here — and it needs to pick up steam in a hurry — may well rest with the big man who is supposed to wield a booming bat, but has been nowhere near the dynamic force his team needs.

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There is much more wrong with the 2026 Jays then him — as evidenced by the latest listless defeat at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays, a largely non-competitive 8-5 verdict Monday night at the Rogers Centre.

But as the team embarks on what feels like a critical second quadrant of the 162-game season, the absence of big-game Vlad has been a stark reality.

He has just two home runs (on pace for eight, the simple math computes) and has yet to hit one out at the Rogers Centre this season, as incredulous as that sounds. Consider that Guerrero’s dynamic, eight-homer October felt like a breakthrough, it’s an abject disappointment 41 games in.

On Monday, Guerrero struck out looking in the first inning, had a meek pop up in the third that travelled about five feet out of the batters box, followed by a benign groundout to short in the sixth.

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Guerrero met the same fate in his last at-bat two innings later to match Sunday’s 0-for-4 effort. The frustration is real as Guerrero’s last extra-base hit came on April 28 and is starting to feel like an eternity ago.

Guerrero is far from the only culprit for a Jays team bearing little resemblance to the plucky group that soared in summer and fall. And sure, there’s still time to reverse thing. But having their $500-million man take charge of a late spring awakening sure wouldn’t hurt.

How bad is it?

With Monday’s loss, the Jays fell to 18-23, once again slipping five games below .500, a depth they didn’t hit at all last season. After 41 games in 2025, they were 20-21 and wouldn’t dip more than two games below .500 the rest of the way.

At the same point, they were just 3.5 games out of first. Now? They trail the Rays by a whopping 9.5 games and managed to fall that far off the pace despite exiting what should have been a build-a-good-record opportunity.

The Jays have now lost six of their past eight and entrenched in one of their worst funks of the season. Four of those defeats have come at the hands of Tampa Bay.

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Bogged down by injuries, it feels like the entire season has been a holding pattern waiting to get healthy. The Jays, after all, have only had three games in which each of Alejandro Kirk, George Springer and Addison Barger have been in the lineup.

Sure, fortunes can change in a hurry and there are 121 games remaining. But so far, this feels nothing like last year. It’s beyond dispute, that the Jays need to be better and certainly more consistent.

And for the optimists out there? At least the Jays entered Monday’s action just one game out of a wild-card spot.

What about the next quarter?

Here’s where things may truly get difficult — and possibly ugly — for the Jays. The soft schedule to start was supposed to result in some pillow-fight opponents, a golden opportunity to launch into a defence of their American League championship by building up a lofty winning record.

It has been anything but, of course.

And now comes a considerably stouter test for the next 40. In fact, it may well be the quadrant that defines them. Included are seven games against the New York Yankees — including a four-gamer in the Bronx next week. There’s also three against the AL East-leading Rays (which began on Monday) and three more each against the Cubs and Braves. Each of those three are division leaders.

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In the first 40 games, the Jays faced AL East opponents just six times (and were 2-4, now 2-5.) They have 20 divisional matchups in the next quarter.

Start with the Yankees, who no doubt will have last October’s ALCS top of mind when they face the Jays next week.

Oh, and after an off-day on Thursday this week, the Jays are scheduled to play on 17 consecutive days, which will further tax the diminished roster.

Why have the Blue Jays struggled?

Injuries top the list, but they don’t carry all of the weight for an underachieving team that other than a pair of modest three-game winning streaks has been unable to generate any meaningful momentum.

To their credit, the Jays haven’t reached to use the absences as an excuse, but starting pitching that was once a depth strength is now partially in tatters.

Jose Berrios is scheduled to see a surgeon on Tuesday to evaluate the stress fracture in his elbow while Max Scherzer is due to get a cortisone shot on his right thumb that is once again acting up.

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Beyond the injuries, the Jays haven’t been nearly as consistent and crisp as they were in 2025. Sloppy defensive play has reared its head too often, which only exacerbates the other issues.

Good for Kevin Gausman, but …

Monday was a milestone night for Jays starter Kevin Gausman, but one that he’d likely mostly rather forget.

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Despite struggling in an outing that lasted just 4.2 innings, Gausman became just the sixth active pitcher (and 91st overall) to reach 2,000 career strikeouts when he fanned Rays catcher Hunter Feduccia to lead off the fourth.

The popular veteran received a huge applause from the Rogers Centre crowd of 39,336 which he acknowledged with a wave.

Typical of the Jays struggles on the night, however, speedy Ray Chandler Simpson got an infield hit, advanced to second on a balk and after stealing third came home on a throwing error by Jays catcher Brandon Valenzuela.

Gausman finished his night allowing seven runs (six earned) on 10 hits – all of those season highs.

The only other highlight on the night was a pair of home runs from Andres Gimenez — the only multi-homer game of his career giving him five on the season. With that, the shortstop drove in all five runs.

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